Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2013-2014 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.1 to 57%

13 points 6 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Rangers 4 Anaheim 1			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
San Jose vs Buffalo	-0.5+0.2-0.2-0.2+0.3+0.4
Boston vs Dallas	+0.3+0.3-0.5+0.3+0.0-0.3
Montreal vs St. Louis	+0.3-0.2+0.5+0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-151						In		Yes		100																68	*
121		49	10		-	10	In		92.3	%	92				8												13	*
118	-120						In		Yes		100																97	*
117		49	14		-	6	98.6	%	97.1		99								1								70	*
116		48	14		-	7	In		95.6		96	1			3												135	*
115		47	14		-	8	In		94.4		95	2			3												177	*
114		47	15		-	7	In		91.5		93	2			5	0											340	*
113		46	15		-	8	In		86.5		91	5	0		4	0											458	*
112		46	16		-	7	In		83.4		90	4	0		5	0	0										680	*
111		45	16		-	8	In		79.0		88	7			5	0											1,008	*
110		45	17		-	7	99.9		67.6		82	9	0		8	1	0	0	0								1,430	*
109		44	17		-	8	99.9		57.6		77	12	1	0	9	2	0	0	0								2,068	*
108		43	17		-	9	99.9		48.0		72	14	1		10	2	1	0	0	0							2,799	*
107		43	18		-	8	99.9		37.8		65	18	1	0	12	3	1	0	0								3,613	*
106		43	19		-	7	99.8		26.1		59	21	2	0	11	4	1	1	0	0	0						4,872	*
105		42	19		-	8	99.6		17.5		51	24	3	0	13	5	2	1	0	0	0	0					6,428	*
104		42	20		-	7	99.2		10.3		44	27	5	0	14	5	2	1	0	0	0	0					8,098	*
103		41	20		-	8	98.8		4.6		35	30	7	0	15	7	3	1	1	0	0	0	0				10,239	*
102		40	20		-	9	98.4		1.9		28	31	10	1	16	8	4	2	1	0	0	0	0				12,320	*
101		40	21		-	8	97.7		0.6		21	30	12	2	17	9	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0			14,905	*
100		39	21		-	9	96.5		0.1		15	28	16	3	16	10	6	3	2	1	0	0	0	0			17,594	*
99		39	22		-	8	95.1		0.0		10	25	18	4	16	11	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	0			20,674	*
98		38	22		-	9	92.8		No		6	21	20	5	16	12	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0			23,533	*
97		38	23		-	8	90.4		No		4	17	20	7	15	12	9	6	4	3	2	1	0	0			26,137	*
96		37	23		-	9	86.9		No		2	12	19	9	14	13	10	7	5	4	2	1	1	0			28,538	*
95		37	24		-	8	84.0		No		1	9	18	11	13	13	11	9	6	4	3	2	1	0			31,224	*
94		36	24		-	9	78.9		No		1	6	15	13	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	2	1	0			33,272	*
93		36	25		-	8	74.6		No		0	4	13	14	10	12	12	10	9	7	5	3	2	0			34,906	*
92		35	25		-	9	69.2		No		0	2	10	14	9	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	2	1			35,887	*
91		35	26		-	8	62.9		No		0	1	8	14	7	10	11	11	11	9	7	5	3	1			36,428	*
90		34	26		-	9	57.2		No		0	1	6	13	6	9	11	12	11	10	9	7	4	2			36,280	*
89		34	27		-	8	50.3		No			0	4	12	5	8	10	11	12	12	10	8	5	2			35,492	*
88		33	27		-	9	44.4		No		0	0	2	11	4	7	9	11	12	13	11	10	7	3			34,123	*
87		33	28		-	8	37.9		No		0	0	2	9	3	5	8	10	12	12	13	12	9	5			32,076	*
86		32	28		-	9	31.9		No			0	1	8	2	4	7	10	12	13	14	13	11	6			30,306	*
85		32	29		-	8	26.9		No			0	1	7	2	4	6	8	11	13	14	14	13	8			27,581	*
84		31	29		-	9	21.1		No			0	0	5	1	3	5	7	10	12	15	16	15	11			24,899	*
83		31	30		-	8	16.9		No				0	4	1	2	4	6	9	12	15	17	17	13			22,057	*
82		30	30		-	9	13.7		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	8	11	14	18	20	16			19,371	*
81		30	31		-	8	10.2		No				0	2	0	1	2	4	6	10	14	18	21	20			16,488	*
80		29	31		-	9	7.9		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	5	8	13	18	23	25			13,841	*
79		29	32		-	8	5.7		No					1	0	0	1	2	5	7	11	17	25	29			11,711	*
78		28	32		-	9	4.3		No					1	0	0	1	2	4	6	10	17	26	33			9,614	*
77		28	33		-	8	3.0		No					1	0	0	0	1	3	5	8	15	26	39			7,761	*
76		27	33		-	9	2.1		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	4	7	14	27	44			6,082	*
75		27	34		-	8	1.7		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	3	6	12	26	49			4,603	*
74		26	34		-	9	0.9		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6	12	26	53			3,631	*
73		26	35		-	8	0.5		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	8	22	64			2,668	*
72		25	35		-	9	0.4		No					0	0		0	0	1	2	3	7	22	65			2,042	*
71		25	36		-	8	0.3		No					0		0		0	0	1	3	7	20	69			1,505	*
70		24	36		-	9	0.2		No							0		0	0	1	2	5	19	73			1,048	*
69		24	37		-	8	0.1		No					0						0	1	4	18	77			725	*
68		24	38		-	7	0.2		No								0				1	2	17	80			504	*
67		23	38		-	8	Out		No												1	1	15	84			353	*
66		22	38		-	9	Out		No											1	2	1	9	87			241	*
65		22	39		-	8	Out		No											1	1	1	9	88			155	*
64		21	39		-	9	Out		No													1	4	95			97	*
63		21	40		-	8	Out		No												1	3	9	87			68	*
62		21	41		-	7	Out		No													3	6	91			35	*
61		20	41		-	8	Out		No															100			21	*
60		19	41		-	9	Out		No													6		94			17	*
58	-59						Out		No															100			12	*
57		18	43		-	8	Out		No														50	50			2	*
13	-54						Out		No															100			60	*

Total:							57.0	%	1.6	%	5	7	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7			703,480

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Monday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs Vancouver	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-151						100
121		49	10		-	10	92	8
118	-120						100
117		49	14		-	6	97	3
116		48	14		-	7	96	4
115		47	14		-	8	94	6
114		47	15		-	7	91	8	0
113		46	15		-	8	86	13	1
112		46	16		-	7	83	15	1
111		45	16		-	8	79	19	2
110		45	17		-	7	68	27	4	1	0
109		44	17		-	8	58	35	7	1
108		43	17		-	9	48	38	11	2	0
107		43	18		-	8	38	40	17	4	0	0
106		43	19		-	7	26	40	24	8	1	0	0
105		42	19		-	8	17	36	30	13	4	1	0	0
104		42	20		-	7	10	27	32	21	8	2	0	0
103		41	20		-	8	5	18	30	26	15	5	1	0		0
102		40	20		-	9	2	9	23	28	22	11	4	1	0	0
101		40	21		-	8	1	4	14	24	26	19	9	3	1	0
100		39	21		-	9	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	3	1	0	0
99		39	22		-	8	0	0	2	7	16	23	24	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		38	22		-	9		0	0	2	7	16	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		38	23		-	8			0	0	2	7	15	22	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
96		37	23		-	9			0	0	0	2	6	12	20	23	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
95		37	24		-	8					0	0	1	4	11	18	22	20	13	7	2	1	0	0
94		36	24		-	9					0	0	0	1	3	8	16	21	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0	0
93		36	25		-	8							0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0	0
92		35	25		-	9								0	0	0	1	4	10	18	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
91		35	26		-	8								0		0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
90		34	26		-	9											0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0
89		34	27		-	8											0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
88		33	27		-	9												0		0	0	1	3	8	15	22	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
87		33	28		-	8														0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
86		32	28		-	9																0	0	0	2	6	13	20	24	19	11	4	1	0	0
85		32	29		-	8																	0	0	0	2	5	12	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
84		31	29		-	9																		0	0	0	2	5	13	22	25	20	10	3	1	0
83		31	30		-	8																				0	0	2	6	14	24	26	18	8	2	0
82		30	30		-	9																					0	0	2	7	17	26	26	16	5	1
81		30	31		-	8																					0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	11	2
80		29	31		-	9																							0	1	5	14	27	31	18	4
79		29	32		-	8																							0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
78		28	32		-	9																								0	1	3	14	31	35	15
77		28	33		-	8																									0	2	9	26	40	23
76		27	33		-	9																								0	0	0	5	20	43	33
75		27	34		-	8																									0	0	2	13	41	44
74		26	34		-	9																										0	1	9	38	52
73		26	35		-	8																											0	6	33	61
72		25	35		-	9																											0	4	27	69
71		25	36		-	8																												2	22	76
70		24	36		-	9																											0	1	18	81
69		24	37		-	8																												1	13	86
68		24	38		-	7																												0	11	89
67		23	38		-	8																													6	94
66		22	38		-	9																												0	3	97
65		22	39		-	8																													3	97
64		21	39		-	9																													1	99
63		21	40		-	8																													6	94
62		21	41		-	7																													3	97
61		20	41		-	8																														100
60		19	41		-	9																													6	94
13	-59																																			100

Total:							2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3