Osto's Beer Gut Playoff Chances 2013 50/50
Lost to Wigz 90-99, playoff odds down 5.7 to 72.5%
4-4-0 .500
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 10/24 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Wigz 99 Osto 90 | -2.9 | -0.5 | ||
| Crack 108 Space 79 | +1.3 | +0.1 | ||
| AAA 89 Kramer 83 | +1.0 | +0.1 | ||
| NATE 58 Luke 51 | -0.8 | |||
| Dogs 91 Zizz 80 | +0.6 | +0.1 | ||
| Dawgz 94 Dude 77 | -0.3 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 11/1 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Crack vs Osto | -5.0+3.4+5.0 | -0.7+0.3+0.7 | ||
| Space vs Luke | -2.8*+1.0+2.8 | -0.2+0.1+0.2 | ||
| Dawgz vs Kramer | +1.6+1.9-1.7 | +0.1+0.1-0.1 | ||
| Zizz vs Wigz | -1.4+1.2+1.4 | -0.1+0.1+0.1 | ||
| Dogs vs AAA | +0.5*-0.2-0.5 | |||
| NATE vs Dude | -0.2*+0.1+0.2 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Osto finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Count | |||
| 9 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | In | 29 | 16 | 56 | 107,510 | ||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 99.6 | % | 23 | 22 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4,430 | |||||||
| 8 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 95.0 | 8 | 31 | 48 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 538,924 | ||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 94.1 | 8 | 38 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 85 | |||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 91.5 | 3 | 32 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 17,380 | |||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 76.8 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1,077,696 | ||||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 74.7 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 233 | ||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 71.2 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 25,712 | |||
| 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 6 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 61.6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1,076,788 | ||||
| 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 54.9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 8 | 1 | 204 | ||||||
| 5 | .5 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 60.2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 17,222 | |||
| 5 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 59.8 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 2 | 538,315 | ||||
| 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 63.2 | 25 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 68 | |||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 59.2 | 18 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 12 | 4,444 | ||||||
| 4 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 60.3 | 18 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 108,483 | ||||||||
| Total: | 72.5 | % | 2 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3,517,496 | |||||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 10/24 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Wigz 99 Osto 90 | +0.5 | |
| Crack 108 Space 79 | -0.1 | |
| AAA 89 Kramer 83 | -0.1 | |
| Dogs 91 Zizz 80 | -0.1 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 11/1 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Crack vs Osto | +0.7-0.3-0.7 | |
| Space vs Luke | +0.2-0.1-0.2 | |
| Dawgz vs Kramer | -0.1-0.1+0.1 | |
| Zizz vs Wigz | +0.1-0.1-0.1 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| 9 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 29 | 16 | 56 | ||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 23 | 22 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
| 8 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 8 | 31 | 48 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 8 | 38 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | .5 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 3 | 32 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | |||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| 7 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 0 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | ||||||
| 6 | .5 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 0 | 13 | 11 | 19 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| 6 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 24 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 8 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | .5 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 5 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 2 | ||
| 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 25 | 10 | 28 | 1 | 18 | 15 | 3 | |||||||
| 4 | .5 | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 18 | 3 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 12 | ||||
| 4 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 18 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 18 | ||||||
| Total: | 2 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:43 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
