AAA Playoff Chances 2013
Beat Kramer 89-83, playoff odds up 26.9 to 71.5%
5-3-0 .625
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 10/24 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| NATE 58 Luke 51 | +3.5 | +0.2 | ||
| AAA 89 Kramer 83 | +2.2 | +0.3 | ||
| Dawgz 94 Dude 77 | -0.2 | |||
| Wigz 99 Osto 90 | +0.2 | |||
| Crack 108 Space 79 | -0.1 | |||
| Dogs 91 Zizz 80 | *-0.1 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 11/1 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Dogs vs AAA | -4.2+2.8+3.3 | -0.5+0.3+0.4 | ||
| Space vs Luke | +2.8+3.0-2.7 | +0.3+0.3-0.3 | ||
| Crack vs Osto | -1.1+1.2+1.1 | |||
| Zizz vs Wigz | -1.1+0.9+0.8 | |||
| Dawgz vs Kramer | -0.1+0.7+0.1 | |||
| NATE vs Dude | -0.1*+0.5+0.3 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the AAA finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | Count | |||
| 10 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 91.5 | % | 45 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 806,879 | ||||||
| 9 | .5 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 91.5 | 40 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 27,866 | |||||||
| 9 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 79.3 | 16 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 2,907,611 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 77.9 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 389 | |||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 79.5 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 80,417 | ||||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | In | 50 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| 8 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 68.7 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 4,149,464 | ||||||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 68.4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 845 | ||||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | - | 4 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 69.1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 85,107 | |||||
| 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | In | 100 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| 7 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 64.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 15 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2,909,969 | ||||
| 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 63.1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 14 | 22 | 14 | 1 | 569 | ||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 65.3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 22 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 39,477 | ||||
| 0 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 50.0 | 50 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 64.8 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1,005,652 | |||||
| 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 70.2 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 124 | |||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 65.7 | 18 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 6,795 | |||||
| 5 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 63.8 | 17 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 139,309 | ||||||
| Total: | 71.5 | % | 8 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12,160,480 | |||||||
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 10/24 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| AAA 89 Kramer 83 | -0.3 | |
| NATE 58 Luke 51 | -0.2 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 11/1 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Dogs vs AAA | +0.5-0.3-0.4 | |
| Space vs Luke | -0.3-0.3+0.3 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| 10 | 5 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 45 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | |||||
| 9 | .5 | 4 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 40 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |||||
| 9 | 4 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 16 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 21 | 0 | |||||
| 3 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 14 | 10 | 24 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 22 | |||||||
| 8 | .5 | 3 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 20 | 0 | ||||
| 2 | - | 0 | - | 3 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||
| 8 | 3 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 4 | 30 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 2 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 36 | 5 | 31 | 1 | ||||||
| 1 | - | 0 | - | 4 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 2 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 7 | 26 | 5 | 0 | |||
| 1 | - | 1 | - | 3 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| 7 | 2 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 32 | 15 | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 1 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 14 | 22 | 14 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 | .5 | 1 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 22 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | - | 2 | - | 3 | 50 | 50 | ||||||||||||
| 6 | 1 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 30 | 4 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 0 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 1 | 10 | 14 | 5 | |||||||
| 5 | .5 | 0 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 18 | 10 | 39 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 0 | |||
| 5 | 0 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 17 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 0 | ||||
| Total: | 8 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 30 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:43 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
