Detroit Red Wings Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.8 to 12.5%

71 points 30 27-11

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	+0.7		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Red Wings vs Penguins	+5.2+4.4+3.2-1.9-2.0-5.8		+0.5+0.5+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.6
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets	-0.3-0.8-0.7-0.3-0.5+0.5
Senators vs Lightning	*+0.0-0.6-0.5-0.7-0.7+0.1		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Devils vs Wild			-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Kings vs Capitals			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

99	14	0		-	0	In		0	4	23	45	27	0	1										949
98	13	0		-	1	In			1	9	42	43	3	2										485
97	13	1		-	0	In			0	4	28	57	6	4	0									3,967	*
96	12	1		-	1	In				1	14	61	16	9	0									6,131	*
95	12	2		-	0	100.0	%			0	7	51	25	16	1	0								27,541	*
94	11	2		-	1	99.8				0	2	33	36	25	4	0								36,716	*
93	11	3		-	0	98.9				0	0	18	37	32	10	1	0							87,309
	10	2		-	2	98.5					0	14	38	33	13	1	0	0						24,961	*
92	10	3		-	1	94.4					0	6	33	32	23	5	0	0						122,648
	9	2		-	3	91.3					0	4	29	31	27	8	1	0						10,493	*
91	10	4		-	0	81.8					0	2	22	24	34	15	3	0	0					230,716
	9	3		-	2	76.4						1	19	21	35	19	4	0	0					80,824	*
90	9	4		-	1	56.8						0	12	11	33	31	11	2	0					294,890
	8	3		-	3	49.5						0	10	9	31	34	14	2	0					30,450	*
89	9	5		-	0	30.4						0	5	4	22	37	25	7	1	0				443,927
	8	4		-	2	24.4						0	4	3	18	37	29	9	1	0				167,984
	7	3		-	4	19.5							3	2	15	35	33	11	1	0				7,573	*
88	8	5		-	1	10.7						0	2	1	8	29	38	19	3	0				509,511
	7	4		-	3	7.7							1	0	6	26	39	23	5	0				58,478	*
87	8	6		-	0	2.7							0	0	2	15	37	34	11	0	0			638,920
	7	5		-	2	1.7							0	0	1	12	34	38	14	1	0			258,660
	6	4		-	4	1.1							0	0	1	9	32	40	16	1				12,947	*
86	7	6		-	1	0.4							0	0	0	5	24	42	26	3	0	0		649,105
	6	5		-	3	0.3							0	0	0	4	20	42	30	4	0			78,015	*
85	7	7		-	0	0.0							0	0	0	1	11	37	42	8	0	0		697,264
	6	6		-	2	0.0							0		0	1	9	35	45	10	1	0		288,098
	5	5		-	4	Out										1	8	33	46	12	1	0		14,468	*
84	6	7		-	1	0.0							0		0	0	3	23	50	21	3	0		618,743
	5	6		-	3	Out										0	3	20	50	24	3	0		74,766	*
83	6	8		-	0	0.0							0			0	1	12	48	33	7	0		583,827
	5	7		-	2	Out										0	1	9	46	36	8	0		236,868
	4	6		-	4	Out											0	8	45	37	9	1		11,677	*
82	5	8		-	1	Out										0	0	4	32	45	18	2	0	444,317
	4	7		-	3	Out										0	0	3	29	46	20	2	0	50,154	*
81	5	9		-	0	Out											0	1	21	45	28	5	0	371,054
	4	8		-	2	Out											0	1	18	45	31	6	0	146,320	*
80	4	9		-	1	Out												0	8	35	43	14	0	234,258
	3	8		-	3	Out												0	7	33	44	16	0	23,794	*
79	4	10		-	0	Out												0	4	25	47	24	0	176,320
	3	9		-	2	Out												0	3	22	47	27	1	61,007	*
78	3	10		-	1	Out													1	11	43	43	2	88,997
	2	9		-	3	Out													1	10	43	46	1	7,602	*
77	3	11		-	0	Out													0	6	35	55	4	61,074
	2	10		-	2	Out													0	5	34	57	4	17,152	*
76	2	11		-	1	Out													0	1	21	69	9	24,463	*
75	2	12		-	0	Out														1	12	71	16	17,397	*
74	1	12		-	1	Out														0	4	71	25	3,702	*
73	1	13		-	0	Out															2	63	35	2,294	*
72	0	13		-	1	Out															1	56	44	273
71	0	14		-	0	Out																39	61	811

Total:						12.5	%	0	0	0	0	1	3	3	6	9	13	18	22	15	8	3	0	8,039,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	+0.1
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	-0.1
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Wings vs Penguins	-0.9-0.9-0.7+0.2+0.2+1.1
Flyers vs Stars	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Wild	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0
Coyotes vs Panthers	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Senators vs Lightning	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Kings vs Capitals	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99	14	0		-	0				0	1	5	17	34	30	11	2	0
98	13	0		-	1						1	4	15	37	32	10	1	0
97	13	1		-	0						0	1	6	22	34	26	9	2	0
96	12	1		-	1							0	1	7	23	34	26	8	1	0	0
95	12	2		-	0								0	1	9	26	33	22	7	1	0	0
94	11	2		-	1								0	0	1	9	25	34	22	7	1	0	0
93	11	3		-	0									0	0	2	11	28	35	19	4	1	0	0
	10	2		-	2									0	0	1	8	25	35	23	6	1	0	0
92	10	3		-	1										0	0	2	11	30	35	16	4	2	0	0	0
	9	2		-	3											0	1	8	26	36	20	6	3	1	0
91	10	4		-	0											0	0	3	15	33	31	7	8	3	1	0	0
	9	3		-	2											0	0	2	11	30	33	8	10	4	1	0	0
90	9	4		-	1												0	0	4	18	35	7	16	14	5	1	0	0	0
	8	3		-	3												0	0	2	14	33	7	18	17	7	2	0	0
89	9	5		-	0													0	1	6	24	3	15	24	18	7	2	0	0
	8	4		-	2													0	0	4	20	3	14	25	21	9	2	0	0
	7	3		-	4														0	3	16	3	13	25	24	12	3	0	0
88	8	5		-	1													0	0	1	10	1	6	20	29	22	10	2	0	0
	7	4		-	3														0	1	7	0	5	17	28	25	12	3	0	0
87	8	6		-	0														0	0	3	0	1	8	21	30	24	10	2	0	0
	7	5		-	2														0	0	2	0	1	6	19	30	27	13	3	0	0
	6	4		-	4															0	1	0	1	5	16	30	28	16	4	0	0
86	7	6		-	1															0	0	0	0	1	7	20	32	26	11	2	0	0
	6	5		-	3															0	0	0	0	1	6	18	30	29	14	3	0	0
85	7	7		-	0															0	0		0	0	1	8	22	34	25	8	1	0	0
	6	6		-	2																0		0	0	1	6	20	33	28	10	1	0	0
	5	5		-	4																			0	1	5	17	32	31	12	2	0
84	6	7		-	1																0		0	0	0	1	8	24	36	24	7	1	0	0
	5	6		-	3																			0	0	1	6	21	36	26	8	1	0
83	6	8		-	0																0				0	0	2	11	30	35	17	4	0	0
	5	7		-	2																				0	0	1	9	28	36	20	5	0	0
	4	6		-	4																					0	1	7	26	38	22	6	1
82	5	8		-	1																				0	0	0	3	14	33	33	14	3	0
	4	7		-	3																					0	0	2	12	32	34	16	3	0
81	5	9		-	0																						0	0	5	22	37	27	8	1	0
	4	8		-	2																						0	0	4	20	36	29	10	1	0
80	4	9		-	1																						0	0	1	8	27	38	22	4	0
	3	8		-	3																							0	1	7	26	38	24	5	0
79	4	10		-	0																						0		0	3	15	36	34	11	0
	3	9		-	2																								0	2	14	34	36	13	0
78	3	10		-	1																								0	0	5	23	43	27	1
	2	9		-	3																									0	4	21	45	29	1
77	3	11		-	0																									0	2	12	40	42	3
	2	10		-	2																									0	1	11	39	45	3
76	2	11		-	1																										0	4	28	60	7
75	2	12		-	0																										0	1	16	67	15
74	1	12		-	1																											0	7	69	24
73	1	13		-	0																											0	3	63	34
72	0	13		-	1																												1	56	43
71	0	14		-	0																													39	61

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	1	3	5	7	9	10	11	12	11	8	6	4	2	0