Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.6 to 66.5%

82 points 34 22-14

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	+1.0
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	-0.2
Canucks 4 Predators 3 (so)	*-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Sabres	+9.4+9.3+9.3+1.0+0.7-9.0		+0.3+0.3+0.2+0.0+0.0-0.2
Coyotes vs Panthers	-1.1-1.2-1.1+0.3+0.4+1.3
Devils vs Wild	+1.1+0.1+0.0-0.8-0.9-0.8
Flyers vs Stars	+0.1-0.1-0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Oilers finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

106	12	0		-	0	In		6	42	50	0			2										1,626
105	11	0		-	1	In		1	21	66	1			11	0									1,522
104	11	1		-	0	In		0	12	61	4	0		23	1									11,772
	10	0		-	2	In		0	9	56	4			30	1									1,116
103	10	1		-	1	In		0	3	43	6	0		43	5									17,609	*
102	10	2		-	0	In		0	1	26	8	0	0	53	11									64,090
	9	1		-	2	In		0	1	22	6	1	0	57	14									11,216	*
101	9	2		-	1	In			0	10	5	1	0	58	26									83,556
	8	1		-	3	In			0	8	3	1	0	55	33									4,342	*
100	9	3		-	0	100.0	%		0	3	4	1	0	51	41	0								211,359
	8	2		-	2	100.0			0	2	3	1	0	48	46	0								49,432
	7	1		-	4	In				2	2	1		45	51									1,114	*
99	8	3		-	1	100.0				1	1	1	0	38	60	0								249,249
	7	2		-	3	100.0				0	1	0	0	32	66	0								17,396	*
98	8	4		-	0	99.8				0	0	0	0	25	74	0								470,026
	7	3		-	2	99.8				0	0	0	0	22	77	0								129,902
	6	2		-	4	99.8				0	0	0	0	19	80	0								3,959	*
97	7	4		-	1	99.3				0	0	0	0	14	85	1	0							489,841
	6	3		-	3	99.0				0	0	0	0	11	88	1								40,320	*
96	7	5		-	0	96.8				0	0	0	0	7	90	3	0	0						738,576
	6	4		-	2	96.5					0	0	0	6	91	3	0							223,030
	5	3		-	4	96.3							0	5	91	4	0							7,782	*
95	6	5		-	1	91.2					0	0	0	3	88	9	0	0						675,336
	5	4		-	3	90.8							0	2	89	9	0	0						59,105	*
94	6	6		-	0	78.7								1	78	20	1	0						847,175
	5	5		-	2	77.5								1	77	21	1	0	0					263,083
	4	4		-	4	76.8								0	76	22	2	0						9,509	*
93	5	6		-	1	62.2								0	62	33	5	0	0					660,714
	4	5		-	3	60.6								0	60	34	5	0	0					56,489
	3	4		-	5	63.1									63	32	5	0						1,042	*
92	5	7		-	0	40.7								0	41	45	13	1	0	0				713,410
	4	6		-	2	39.5								0	39	45	14	2	0					214,182
	3	5		-	4	37.5								0	38	47	14	2	0					7,494	*
91	4	7		-	1	23.5								0	23	47	24	5	0	0				462,187
	3	6		-	3	22.7								0	23	46	25	5	0	0				37,665	*
90	4	8		-	0	10.3									10	39	36	13	2	0				436,191
	3	7		-	2	9.5									10	38	37	14	2	0				119,331
	2	6		-	4	9.8									10	36	38	15	2	0				3,585	*
89	3	8		-	1	3.8									4	25	40	25	6	0				225,780
	2	7		-	3	3.6									4	24	40	27	6	0				15,567	*
88	3	9		-	0	1.0									1	13	35	36	14	1	0			189,105
	2	8		-	2	0.8									1	12	34	37	15	1				44,853	*
87	2	9		-	1	0.2									0	5	23	41	28	4	0			73,000
	1	8		-	3	0.3									0	4	22	41	28	4				3,768	*
86	2	10		-	0	0.0									0	1	12	36	41	10	0			54,853
	1	9		-	2	0.1									0	1	11	35	41	11	0			9,485	*
85	1	10		-	1	Out										0	4	24	49	22	1			14,727	*
84	1	11		-	0	Out										0	1	12	49	35	2			10,671	*
83	0	11		-	1	Out											0	5	38	49	8			1,244
82	0	12		-	0	Out												2	26	59	13			1,514

Total:						66.5	%	0	0	1	0	0	0	8	57	19	9	4	1	0	0			8,039,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	-0.1
Canucks 4 Predators 3 (so)	+0.0
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Sabres	-1.0-1.0-1.0-0.0+0.0+1.0
Devils vs Wild	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Coyotes vs Panthers	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Red Wings vs Penguins	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

106	12	0		-	0	2	17	40	30	9	1
105	11	0		-	1	0	6	26	40	22	5	1
104	11	1		-	0	0	1	12	31	35	17	4	0	0
	10	0		-	2		1	9	28	36	21	4	0
103	10	1		-	1		0	3	15	33	31	14	3	0
102	10	2		-	0		0	0	5	19	33	29	12	2	0	0
	9	1		-	2		0	0	4	17	32	30	14	3	0	0
101	9	2		-	1			0	1	6	21	34	26	10	2	0	0
	8	1		-	3			0	0	5	20	32	28	12	2	0
100	9	3		-	0			0	0	1	8	23	34	25	8	1	0	0				0
	8	2		-	2				0	1	6	21	34	27	10	1	0					0
	7	1		-	4					1	5	19	35	29	10	1	0
99	8	3		-	1				0	0	2	9	26	35	22	6	1	0	0			0
	7	2		-	3				0	0	1	8	24	35	23	7	1	0				0
98	8	4		-	0				0	0	0	2	11	28	35	19	5	0	0	0		0
	7	3		-	2					0	0	2	10	28	35	20	5	0	0			0
	6	2		-	4					0	0	1	9	26	37	21	5	1	0			0
97	7	4		-	1						0	0	3	14	32	32	15	3	0	0		1	0
	6	3		-	3						0	0	3	13	31	33	16	3	0	0		1
96	7	5		-	0						0	0	0	4	17	33	30	11	2	0	0	3	0	0
	6	4		-	2							0	0	3	16	33	30	12	2	0	0	3	0
	5	3		-	4							0	0	3	16	32	30	12	2	0		4	0
95	6	5		-	1							0	0	1	5	20	33	24	7	1	0	9	0	0
	5	4		-	3								0	1	5	19	33	24	8	1	0	9	0	0
94	6	6		-	0								0	0	1	7	21	29	17	4	0	20	1	0
	5	5		-	2								0	0	1	6	21	28	17	4	0	21	1	0	0
	4	4		-	4									0	1	6	21	28	17	4	0	22	2	0
93	5	6		-	1									0	0	1	7	19	22	11	2	33	5	0	0
	4	5		-	3									0	0	1	7	18	21	11	2	34	5	0	0
	3	4		-	5											1	6	19	21	13	3	31	5	0
92	5	7		-	0										0	0	1	7	14	13	5	44	13	2	0	0
	4	6		-	2										0	0	1	6	13	13	6	44	14	2	0
	3	5		-	4											0	1	6	13	12	6	46	15	2	0
91	4	7		-	1										0	0	0	1	4	9	9	42	27	7	1	0	0
	3	6		-	3											0	0	1	4	9	9	41	28	7	1	0
90	4	8		-	0												0	0	1	3	7	28	36	20	5	1	0	0
	3	7		-	2												0	0	1	2	6	27	36	21	6	1	0	0
	2	6		-	4													0	1	3	7	25	36	22	6	1	0
89	3	8		-	1													0	0	0	3	10	27	31	20	7	2	0	0	0
	2	7		-	3														0	0	3	9	25	32	21	7	2	0	0	0
88	3	9		-	0															0	1	2	11	25	30	20	8	2	0	0	0
	2	8		-	2															0	1	2	10	24	30	21	9	2	0	0
87	2	9		-	1															0	0	0	2	9	21	30	24	11	3	0	0
	1	8		-	3																0	0	2	8	20	28	26	12	3	0	0
86	2	10		-	0																0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	11	2	0	0
	1	9		-	2																0		0	2	7	20	30	26	12	3	0
85	1	10		-	1																			0	1	6	19	31	28	12	2	0	0
84	1	11		-	0																				0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	0
83	0	11		-	1																					0	1	8	26	36	21	7	1
82	0	12		-	0																						0	2	11	31	35	17	3	0

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	8	11	12	10	7	4	2	17	8	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0