Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Maple Leafs 2-4, playoff odds down 9.6 to 36.8%

75 points 35 29-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	-8.3		-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Lightning	-10.4-2.0-2.2+8.7+10.0+11.9		-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.7
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets	-0.6-1.8-1.7-0.9-0.8+1.2		-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Red Wings vs Penguins	+0.4-0.7-0.6-0.7-0.9-0.3		-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Devils vs Wild	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

101	13	0		-	0	In		3	20	43	30	4												1,006
100	12	0		-	1	In		0	5	34	43	17												574
99	12	1		-	0	In		0	2	21	48	29	1	0										4,670	*
98	11	1		-	1	In			1	10	42	45	2	0										7,243	*
97	11	2		-	0	In			0	4	31	58	6	2										26,501
	10	1		-	2	In			0	3	29	58	7	2										5,518	*
96	10	2		-	1	In			0	1	18	62	15	5	0									43,549	*
95	10	3		-	0	100.0	%		0	0	9	58	24	9	0	0								101,769
	9	2		-	2	100.0				0	7	54	27	11	0	0								29,230	*
94	9	3		-	1	100.0				0	3	41	37	18	2	0								142,866
	8	2		-	3	99.9				0	2	36	39	21	3	0								12,073	*
93	9	4		-	0	99.7				0	1	26	42	25	5	0	0							267,730
	8	3		-	2	99.5				0	1	22	42	28	7	0	0							91,879	*
92	8	4		-	1	97.7					0	10	41	31	16	2	0	0						334,819
	7	3		-	3	96.5					0	8	39	31	19	3	0							33,379	*
91	8	5		-	0	92.1					0	4	33	29	27	7	1	0						504,850
	7	4		-	2	89.2					0	3	30	27	30	10	1	0						186,543
	6	3		-	4	85.4						2	25	25	34	13	1	0						8,113	*
90	7	5		-	1	73.8					0	1	20	17	36	21	4	0	0					561,347
	6	4		-	3	67.6					0	0	17	14	36	26	6	1	0					61,796	*
89	7	6		-	0	52.3						0	11	9	32	34	12	2	0	0				703,727
	6	5		-	2	45.6						0	9	7	30	36	16	2	0					271,062	*
	5	4		-	4	37.1						0	7	5	26	39	20	3	0	0				12,231
88	6	6		-	1	23.2						0	4	2	17	38	29	9	1	0				681,373
	5	5		-	3	18.2							3	1	13	36	33	11	1	0				76,236	*
87	6	7		-	0	9.6							2	0	8	30	39	19	3	0	0			732,700
	5	6		-	2	7.0							1	0	6	26	40	22	4	0	0			281,868
	4	5		-	4	4.4							1	0	3	22	41	26	6	0	0			13,015	*
86	5	7		-	1	1.8							0	0	1	13	36	36	13	1	0	0		608,636
	4	6		-	3	1.1							0	0	1	10	33	39	15	1	0			65,996	*
85	5	8		-	0	0.4							0	0	0	5	25	42	24	3	0	0		573,867
	4	7		-	2	0.2							0	0	0	4	22	42	28	4	0	0		209,812
	3	6		-	4	0.1							0		0	3	19	42	31	5	0	0		9,066	*
84	4	8		-	1	0.0							0	0	0	1	10	35	41	12	1	0		394,149
	3	7		-	3	0.0							0		0	1	8	32	43	15	1	0		38,929	*
83	4	9		-	0	0.0							0		0	0	4	23	45	23	4	0		330,647
	3	8		-	2	0.0									0	0	3	21	46	25	4	0		108,242
	2	7		-	4	Out										0	2	18	46	29	4	0		3,981	*
82	3	9		-	1	Out										0	1	10	39	38	11	1	0	181,874
	2	8		-	3	Out											1	8	36	41	14	1		14,965	*
81	3	10		-	0	Out										0	0	4	27	44	23	3	0	136,492
	2	9		-	2	Out											0	3	25	44	24	3	0	38,674	*
80	2	10		-	1	Out											0	1	13	40	37	9	0	56,372
	1	9		-	3	Out											0	1	10	37	41	11	0	3,384	*
79	2	11		-	0	Out											0	0	5	29	46	20	0	38,832
	1	10		-	2	Out												0	5	28	46	21	0	7,867	*
78	1	11		-	1	Out												0	2	16	46	35	1	10,870	*
77	1	12		-	0	Out													0	7	39	50	3	7,445	*
76	0	12		-	1	Out														2	28	62	8	915
75	0	13		-	0	Out														1	16	70	14	1,218

Total:						36.8	%	0	0	0	1	4	11	8	13	16	16	14	10	5	2	0	0	8,039,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	+0.9

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Lightning	+1.1+0.1+0.1-1.0-1.1-1.2
Canadiens vs Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1
Coyotes vs Panthers	+0.1+0.1+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1
Flyers vs Stars	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Red Wings vs Penguins	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

101	13	0		-	0			0	2	15	30	31	18	3	0
100	12	0		-	1				0	2	14	29	32	17	5	1	0
99	12	1		-	0					0	3	17	33	31	13	2	0	0
98	11	1		-	1					0	1	5	18	34	29	11	2	0
97	11	2		-	0						0	1	7	23	35	24	8	1	0	0
	10	1		-	2						0	1	6	21	33	27	10	2	0
96	10	2		-	1						0	0	1	9	25	34	22	7	1	0
95	10	3		-	0							0	0	2	12	29	33	19	5	0	0	0
	9	2		-	2								0	1	9	26	33	23	6	1	0	0
94	9	3		-	1								0	0	3	13	28	34	18	4	0	0	0
	8	2		-	3									0	2	10	25	34	23	6	1	0
93	9	4		-	0								0	0	0	4	15	33	32	13	2	0	0	0
	8	3		-	2									0	0	2	12	30	35	17	3	0	0	0
92	8	4		-	1									0	0	0	3	17	36	31	11	2	1	0	0
	7	3		-	3										0	0	2	13	33	34	14	2	1	0	0
91	8	5		-	0										0	0	0	6	24	38	24	4	3	1	0	0
	7	4		-	2											0	0	4	20	37	28	5	4	1	0	0
	6	3		-	4												0	3	15	35	32	6	7	2	0	0
90	7	5		-	1											0	0	1	8	28	37	6	11	7	2	0	0	0
	6	4		-	3												0	0	6	23	38	6	14	9	3	0	0
89	7	6		-	0												0	0	2	14	36	4	15	17	9	2	0	0	0
	6	5		-	2													0	2	11	33	4	15	20	12	3	1	0	0
	5	4		-	4													0	1	7	29	3	16	23	15	5	1	0
88	6	6		-	1													0	0	3	20	1	10	24	24	13	4	1	0	0
	5	5		-	3														0	2	16	1	9	23	27	16	5	1	0	0
87	6	7		-	0														0	1	9	0	4	15	28	26	13	4	1	0	0
	5	6		-	2														0	0	7	0	3	13	27	28	16	5	1	0	0
	4	5		-	4															0	4	0	2	10	24	30	20	7	1	0
86	5	7		-	1														0	0	2	0	0	4	15	28	29	16	5	1	0	0
	4	6		-	3															0	1	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0
85	5	8		-	0															0	0	0	0	1	5	16	29	29	15	4	0	0	0
	4	7		-	2															0	0		0	0	4	13	28	31	18	5	1	0	0
	3	6		-	4																0		0	0	3	11	26	32	21	7	1	0
84	4	8		-	1															0	0		0	0	1	4	15	30	31	16	3	0	0	0
	3	7		-	3																0			0	0	3	12	27	33	19	5	1	0
83	4	9		-	0																0			0	0	1	5	18	33	30	12	2	0	0
	3	8		-	2																0			0	0	0	4	15	32	32	14	3	0	0
	2	7		-	4																				0	0	2	13	30	35	17	3	0
82	3	9		-	1																				0	0	1	5	19	35	28	10	1	0
	2	8		-	3																					0	0	4	17	34	32	12	2	0
81	3	10		-	0																					0	0	1	8	25	36	23	6	1	0
	2	9		-	2																						0	1	6	23	36	25	7	1
80	2	10		-	1																							0	2	11	30	36	18	3	0
	1	9		-	3																							0	1	8	29	37	21	4
79	2	11		-	0																							0	0	3	17	36	34	10	0
	1	10		-	2																								0	3	16	36	34	10	0
78	1	11		-	1																								0	1	6	27	43	23	1
77	1	12		-	0																									0	2	14	41	40	3
76	0	12		-	1																											5	33	55	6
75	0	13		-	0																										0	2	19	67	13

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	6	10	13	2	5	7	9	9	9	8	6	4	3	1	1	0	0