St Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Blackhawks 4-5 (so), playoff odds up 0.6 to 46.6%

78 points 33 24-12

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	+1.8		+0.1
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	-1.3		-0.1
Canucks 4 Predators 3 (so)	-0.5		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Sabres	-2.9-2.9-2.9-0.3-0.4+2.8		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Devils vs Wild	+1.9+0.1+0.1-1.2-1.2-1.3		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Coyotes vs Panthers	-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Flyers vs Stars	+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.3*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Blues finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

104	13	0		-	0	In		0	4	48	47	1												1,548
103	12	0		-	1	In		0	2	37	58	3	0											1,357
102	12	1		-	0	In			0	19	74	6	0											11,483	*
101	11	1		-	1	In			0	10	75	15	0											15,156	*
100	11	2		-	0	In			0	3	71	24	1	0	0									56,357
	10	1		-	2	In				3	69	26	2	0	0									10,037	*
99	10	2		-	1	100.0	%			1	54	39	6	0	0	0								73,793
	9	1		-	3	In				1	50	42	7	0	0									3,927	*
98	10	3		-	0	100.0				0	41	46	12	0	1	0								184,409
	9	2		-	2	99.9				0	37	47	14	0	1	0								44,882	*
97	9	3		-	1	99.6				0	22	49	25	1	3	0								220,817
	8	2		-	3	99.4				0	19	47	29	1	4	1								15,885	*
96	9	4		-	0	98.5					13	43	36	1	6	2	0							416,680
	8	3		-	2	98.2					11	41	38	1	8	2	0							117,883
	7	2		-	4	97.6					7	37	42	1	11	2	0							3,736	*
95	8	4		-	1	93.5					4	29	46	1	13	6	0	0						444,707
	7	3		-	3	91.8					3	25	47	1	16	8	0							37,771	*
94	8	5		-	0	85.6					2	19	46	0	18	14	0	0						671,538
	7	4		-	2	83.5					1	16	45	0	20	16	1	0						210,627
	6	3		-	4	80.6					1	12	43	0	24	18	1							7,885	*
93	7	5		-	1	67.1					0	8	38	0	21	30	3	0	0					636,184
	6	4		-	3	63.1					0	6	34	0	23	33	4	0	0					59,149	*
92	7	6		-	0	50.4					0	3	28	0	19	42	7	0	0					797,947
	6	5		-	2	47.1					0	3	25	0	19	44	9	1	0					262,250
	5	4		-	4	42.1					0	2	21	0	20	47	10	1	0					10,348	*
91	6	6		-	1	27.4					0	1	15	0	12	50	20	3	0	0				659,208
	5	5		-	3	23.6					0	0	12	0	11	51	22	3	0	0				62,969	*
90	6	7		-	0	15.3					0	0	8	0	7	48	30	6	0	0				710,413
	5	6		-	2	13.3						0	6		7	46	32	7	1	0				232,107
	4	5		-	4	11.0						0	4		6	46	34	9	1	0				9,114	*
89	5	7		-	1	5.0						0	3		2	33	42	17	3	0				501,097
	4	6		-	3	3.9						0	2		2	31	43	19	3	0				46,319	*
88	5	8		-	0	1.9						0	1		1	22	42	27	6	0				470,988
	4	7		-	2	1.5						0	1		1	20	41	29	7	0	0			146,950
	3	6		-	4	1.1							0		1	17	42	31	8	1				5,361	*
87	4	8		-	1	0.3							0		0	9	32	39	17	2	0			277,337
	3	7		-	3	0.2							0		0	8	31	40	19	2	0			22,977	*
86	4	9		-	0	0.1							0		0	4	22	40	28	5	0			231,850
	3	8		-	2	0.1							0		0	3	20	40	30	6	0			67,023	*
85	3	9		-	1	0.0							0		0	1	9	32	42	15	0			108,554
	2	8		-	3	Out										1	8	31	42	18	1			7,695	*
84	3	10		-	0	0.0							0			0	4	22	45	27	2			81,934
	2	9		-	2	Out										0	3	20	45	30	2			19,571	*
83	2	10		-	1	Out										0	1	9	38	45	6			30,138	*
82	2	11		-	0	Out										0	0	4	28	56	12			19,628
	1	10		-	2	Out											0	3	25	58	14			3,272	*
81	1	11		-	1	Out												1	15	59	26			4,747	*
80	1	12		-	0	Out												0	7	55	38			3,098	*
79	0	12		-	1	Out													1	41	58			345
78	0	13		-	0	Out													1	30	69			849

Total:						46.6	%	0	0	0	4	11	21	0	10	25	15	8	4	1	0			8,039,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	+0.1
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	-0.1
Canucks 4 Predators 3 (so)	+0.0
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Oilers vs Sabres	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Devils vs Wild	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Coyotes vs Panthers	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

104	13	0		-	0		1	17	39	30	11	2	0
103	12	0		-	1		0	5	21	36	28	8	1
102	12	1		-	0		0	1	10	27	35	21	6	1	0
101	11	1		-	1			0	2	12	29	34	18	4	0	0
100	11	2		-	0			0	0	4	16	34	31	13	2	0
	10	1		-	2			0	0	3	14	32	33	15	3	0	0
99	10	2		-	1				0	1	4	19	35	29	11	2	0	0				0
	9	1		-	3				0	0	4	15	34	30	13	2	0
98	10	3		-	0				0	0	1	7	25	36	23	7	1	0	0			0
	9	2		-	2					0	1	5	22	36	26	9	1	0				0
97	9	3		-	1					0	0	1	8	26	36	21	6	1	0	0		0
	8	2		-	3						0	1	6	23	36	24	8	1	0			1
96	9	4		-	0						0	0	2	13	31	32	16	3	0	0		2	0
	8	3		-	2						0	0	2	11	28	34	19	4	0	0		2	0
	7	2		-	4							0	1	8	26	34	22	6	1	0		2	0
95	8	4		-	1							0	0	3	14	30	31	13	2	0	0	6	0	0
	7	3		-	3							0	0	2	11	27	33	15	3	0	0	8	0
94	8	5		-	0							0	0	0	5	17	31	24	8	1	0	14	0	0
	7	4		-	2								0	0	4	15	30	24	9	1	0	16	1	0
	6	3		-	4								0	0	3	12	28	26	10	2	0	18	1
93	7	5		-	1									0	1	4	17	25	16	4	0	30	3	0	0
	6	4		-	3									0	0	3	14	23	17	5	1	33	4	0	0
92	7	6		-	0									0	0	1	6	15	18	9	2	42	7	0	0
	6	5		-	2									0	0	1	5	14	17	9	2	44	9	1	0
	5	4		-	4										0	0	3	11	15	9	3	47	11	1	0
91	6	6		-	1										0	0	1	4	9	9	4	49	21	3	0	0
	5	5		-	3										0	0	0	3	7	8	5	49	23	4	0	0
90	6	7		-	0											0	0	1	3	6	6	43	32	9	1	0	0
	5	6		-	2										0	0	0	0	2	5	6	41	34	10	1	0	0
	4	5		-	4												0	0	2	4	5	39	36	12	2	0
89	5	7		-	1												0	0	0	1	3	23	39	24	8	1	0	0	0
	4	6		-	3													0	0	1	3	19	38	27	10	2	0	0
88	5	8		-	0													0	0	0	2	9	26	32	21	8	2	0	0	0
	4	7		-	2														0	0	1	7	24	32	23	9	2	0	0	0
	3	6		-	4														0	0	1	6	21	32	25	11	3	1
87	4	8		-	1															0	0	1	9	23	30	23	10	3	0	0	0
	3	7		-	3															0	0	1	7	20	29	25	13	4	0	0	0
86	4	9		-	0															0	0	0	2	8	20	29	25	12	3	0	0
	3	8		-	2																0	0	1	7	18	29	27	14	4	0	0
85	3	9		-	1																0	0	0	1	6	18	29	27	14	4	0	0
	2	8		-	3																		0	1	5	16	27	29	16	5	1
84	3	10		-	0																0		0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	3	0	0
	2	9		-	2																		0	0	1	5	15	30	30	16	4	0	0
83	2	10		-	1																			0	0	1	5	16	32	30	13	3	0
82	2	11		-	0																					0	1	5	19	35	29	10	1	0	0
	1	10		-	2																					0	1	4	17	34	31	12	2	0
81	1	11		-	1																						0	1	6	23	35	26	8	1
80	1	12		-	0																							0	1	10	30	38	18	3	0
79	0	12		-	1																									3	14	36	37	10	0
78	0	13		-	0																									0	6	25	43	24	1

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	7	9	8	6	3	2	22	12	7	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0