Chicago Blackhawks Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Blues 5-4 (so), playoff odds up 2.9 to 9.3%

75 points 33 28-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	+2.2		+0.3
Jets 5 Avalanche 3	+0.5
Canucks 4 Predators 3 (so)	*-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Oilers vs Sabres	-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.1-0.1+1.0
Devils vs Wild	+0.8+0.1+0.1-0.6-0.6-0.6
Coyotes vs Panthers	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.2		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Flyers vs Stars			+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Blackhawks finish out the regular season. Explain

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

99	12	0		-	0	In				1	66	29	3	0	0									2,334
98	11	0		-	1	In				0	47	42	10	0	1									2,499
97	11	1		-	0	99.7	%			0	30	47	20	0	2	0								18,478
	10	0		-	2	99.8					28	44	25	1	3	0								1,597
96	10	1		-	1	97.9				0	15	42	34	1	7	2	0							25,086	*
95	10	2		-	0	92.5					6	30	43	1	13	7	0	0						92,150
	9	1		-	2	90.9					4	27	44	1	15	8	1	0						14,768	*
94	9	2		-	1	78.7					2	16	41	0	20	19	3	0						110,515
	8	1		-	3	74.7					1	12	39	0	23	21	4	0						5,406	*
93	9	3		-	0	59.6					0	7	33	0	19	32	8	0	0					277,725
	8	2		-	2	54.1					0	5	29	0	20	35	10	1	0					59,673
	7	1		-	4	48.6					0	5	26	0	18	36	15	1						1,231	*
92	8	3		-	1	35.8					0	2	19	0	15	41	21	2	0					300,062
	7	2		-	3	30.6					0	1	15	0	14	42	25	3	0					19,365	*
91	8	4		-	0	18.5					0	1	10	0	8	41	34	6	0	0				566,804
	7	3		-	2	15.4					0	0	8	0	7	39	38	7	0	0				143,812
	6	2		-	4	12.1						0	5		7	37	42	8	0					3,970	*
90	7	4		-	1	6.9					0	0	3		3	29	47	15	1	0				543,384
	6	3		-	3	5.4						0	2		3	26	49	17	2	0				40,880	*
89	7	5		-	0	2.3					0	0	1		1	18	48	27	5	0				818,523
	6	4		-	2	1.7						0	1		1	15	49	29	5	0				227,239
	5	3		-	4	1.2							1		1	13	48	31	6	0				7,356	*
88	6	5		-	1	0.5						0	0		0	8	41	39	11	1	0			685,159
	5	4		-	3	0.4						0	0		0	6	39	41	13	1				54,269
	4	3		-	5	0.5							0		0	4	36	43	14	1				860	*
87	6	6		-	0	0.1							0		0	3	28	45	22	2	0			861,487
	5	5		-	2	0.1							0		0	2	26	45	23	2	0			244,687
	4	4		-	4	0.0							0		0	2	24	46	26	3	0			8,107	*
86	5	6		-	1	0.0							0		0	1	16	43	35	6	0			616,966
	4	5		-	3	0.0							0			0	14	41	37	7	0			49,445	*
85	5	7		-	0	0.0							0		0	0	7	33	46	14	0			663,085
	4	6		-	2	0.0							0			0	7	32	46	15	0			183,951
	3	5		-	4	Out										0	6	31	47	16	1			5,834	*
84	4	7		-	1	Out										0	3	21	48	27	2			395,437
	3	6		-	3	Out										0	2	19	48	29	2			29,647	*
83	4	8		-	0	Out										0	1	11	43	40	5			371,934
	3	7		-	2	Out										0	1	10	42	42	5			93,632
	2	6		-	4	Out											0	9	41	44	5			2,679	*
82	3	8		-	1	Out											0	4	31	53	11			177,824
	2	7		-	3	Out											0	4	30	54	12			11,139	*
81	3	9		-	0	Out											0	1	19	56	23			148,430
	2	8		-	2	Out											0	1	18	57	24			32,360	*
80	2	9		-	1	Out											0	0	10	54	35			52,741
	1	8		-	3	Out												0	9	54	37			2,452	*
79	2	10		-	0	Out												0	4	44	52			39,988
	1	9		-	2	Out												0	4	43	53			6,314	*
78	1	10		-	1	Out													1	33	66			9,693	*
77	1	11		-	0	Out													0	21	79			7,036	*
76	0	11		-	1	Out													0	15	85			773
75	0	12		-	0	Out													0	6	94			1,114

Total:						9.3	%			0	0	1	5	0	3	12	24	24	19	9	2			8,039,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Blackhawks 5 Blues 4 (so)	-0.8
Maple Leafs 4 Lightning 2	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Coyotes vs Panthers	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Flyers vs Stars	-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Oilers vs Sabres	+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Senators vs Lightning	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99	12	0		-	0				0	1	4	20	37	29	9	1
98	11	0		-	1					0	1	6	24	39	23	6	1
97	11	1		-	0						0	1	10	30	35	18	4	0	0			0
	10	0		-	2						0	1	8	28	36	21	6	0	0			0
96	10	1		-	1							0	2	13	31	32	16	3	0			2	0
95	10	2		-	0						0	0	0	4	16	32	29	10	1	0	0	7	0	0
	9	1		-	2							0	0	3	13	29	31	13	2	0		8	1	0
94	9	2		-	1								0	0	4	16	30	21	6	1	0	19	3	0
	8	1		-	3									0	3	12	28	22	8	1	0	21	4	0
93	9	3		-	0								0	0	1	5	17	22	12	3	0	32	8	0	0
	8	2		-	2									0	0	3	14	20	13	3	0	35	10	1	0
	7	1		-	4										0	2	10	17	14	4	1	36	15	1
92	8	3		-	1									0	0	1	4	11	13	6	1	41	21	2	0
	7	2		-	3										0	0	3	9	11	6	2	42	25	3	0
91	8	4		-	0										0	0	1	3	7	6	2	40	35	7	0	0
	7	3		-	2											0	0	2	5	5	3	38	38	8	1	0
	6	2		-	4												0	1	3	5	3	35	42	9	1
90	7	4		-	1											0	0	0	1	3	3	26	45	18	3	0	0	0
	6	3		-	3												0	0	1	2	3	22	46	22	4	0	0
89	7	5		-	0												0	0	0	1	2	12	39	32	11	2	0	0
	6	4		-	2												0	0	0	0	1	10	36	34	14	3	0	0	0
	5	3		-	4												0		0	0	1	7	32	36	18	4	1	0
88	6	5		-	1													0	0	0	0	3	19	34	27	12	3	0	0	0
	5	4		-	3														0	0	0	2	15	32	30	16	5	1	0	0
	4	3		-	5																0	1	11	33	29	18	6	1	1
87	6	6		-	0														0	0	0	0	6	20	31	26	13	3	0	0	0
	5	5		-	2																0	0	4	17	30	28	15	4	1	0
	4	4		-	4																0	0	3	13	27	30	19	6	1	0
86	5	6		-	1																0	0	1	5	17	29	28	15	4	1	0
	4	5		-	3																0	0	0	4	14	28	30	18	5	1	0	0
85	5	7		-	0																0	0	0	1	6	18	30	28	14	3	0	0	0
	4	6		-	2																0		0	1	4	15	29	30	16	4	0	0	0
	3	5		-	4																		0	0	3	12	28	32	19	6	1	0
84	4	7		-	1																		0	0	1	5	17	30	29	14	3	0	0	0
	3	6		-	3																			0	0	4	14	29	31	16	4	0	0
83	4	8		-	0																			0	0	1	6	19	33	28	11	2	0	0
	3	7		-	2																				0	1	5	17	32	30	13	2	0	0
	2	6		-	4																				0	0	3	16	30	31	15	4	0
82	3	8		-	1																				0	0	1	6	20	35	27	10	1	0
	2	7		-	3																					0	1	5	18	34	29	12	2	0
81	3	9		-	0																					0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1
	2	8		-	2																						0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0
80	2	9		-	1																						0	0	2	11	29	36	19	3	0
	1	8		-	3																							0	2	9	28	36	21	5	0
79	2	10		-	0																							0	0	3	16	36	34	11	0
	1	9		-	2																							0	0	3	15	35	35	12	0
78	1	10		-	1																								0	1	5	25	43	26	1
77	1	11		-	0																									0	1	12	40	45	2
76	0	11		-	1																											6	32	56	5
75	0	12		-	0																											2	18	68	12

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	2	1	1	11	15	13	11	10	9	8	6	4	3	1	1	0	0