Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Lost to Minnesota 2-3 (so), playoff odds down 1.1 to 6.4%

78 points 35 31-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	-1.3		-0.1
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	+0.3		+0.1
Dallas 2 Buffalo 1 (so)	*-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	-0.7-0.8-0.4+0.4*+0.2+0.7		-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	-0.3-0.4-0.3+0.0-0.1+0.4		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Nashville vs Montreal	+0.3+0.1+0.0-0.3*-0.3-0.3		+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs St Louis	-0.3-0.3-0.1+0.2*+0.2+0.3
Detroit vs Arizona			-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

94	8	0		-	0	98.0	%	No			0	4	8	42	31	12	2	0							12,821
93	7	0		-	1	88.5		No				1	1	30	26	30	11	1							11,835
92	7	1		-	0	72.7		No				0	0	23	15	34	23	4	0	0					88,784
	6	0		-	2	69.7		No				0	0	20	14	35	24	6	0						4,860
91	6	1		-	1	41.1		No				0	0	10	5	27	39	17	2	0					72,516
	5	0		-	3	38.8		No						8	4	27	40	18	3	0					1,097
90	6	2		-	0	21.8		No				0		6	1	15	38	31	8	1	0				273,150
	5	1		-	2	18.8		No				0		5	1	13	37	34	10	1	0				25,088
	4	0		-	4	17.9		No						4	2	12	36	34	11	2					151
89	5	2		-	1	5.5		No				0		1	0	4	24	42	24	5	0	0			192,160
	4	1		-	3	4.3		No						1	0	3	22	42	26	5	0				4,848
	3	0		-	5	11.8		No						6		6	12	41	35						17
88	5	3		-	0	1.6		No						1	0	1	11	35	37	14	1	0			481,834
	4	2		-	2	1.2		No						1	0	1	9	33	39	16	2	0			56,439
	3	1		-	4	1.8		No						1		1	9	32	36	18	3	0			564
	2	0		-	6	Out		No										100							1
87	4	3		-	1	0.1		No						0	0	0	3	18	41	31	7	0			281,930
	3	2		-	3	0.1		No						0		0	2	16	40	34	8	0			8,777
	2	1		-	5	Out		No									3	19	29	45	3				31
86	4	4		-	0	0.0		No						0		0	1	7	30	43	18	2	0		532,502
	3	3		-	2	0.0		No						0		0	0	6	28	44	20	2	0		66,000
	2	2		-	4	Out		No									0	5	23	47	23	2			775
	1	1		-	6	Out		No											50		50				2
85	3	4		-	1	Out		No									0	1	13	42	36	7	0		249,179
	2	3		-	3	Out		No									0	1	12	40	39	7	0		7,795
	1	2		-	5	Out		No										2	6	35	53	4			49
84	3	5		-	0	Out		No									0	0	5	28	48	18	1	0	376,563
	2	4		-	2	Out		No										0	4	26	48	20	1	0	43,921
	1	3		-	4	Out		No											2	26	48	22	2		465
	0	2		-	6	Out		No														100			1
83	2	5		-	1	Out		No										0	1	13	46	35	5	0	132,480
	1	4		-	3	Out		No											1	10	45	37	7	0	3,511
	0	3		-	5	Out		No												14	71	14			14
82	2	6		-	0	Out		No											0	4	33	48	15	1	166,828
	1	5		-	2	Out		No											0	3	29	48	18	1	15,477
	0	4		-	4	Out		No												1	28	43	27	1	93
81	1	6		-	1	Out		No											0	1	15	45	33	5	38,674
	0	5		-	3	Out		No												0	15	41	36	8	593
80	1	7		-	0	Out		No												0	6	35	46	13	41,838
	0	6		-	2	Out		No												0	4	29	50	18	2,253
79	0	7		-	1	Out		No												0	1	15	50	34	4,929
78	0	8		-	0	Out		No													0	7	41	52	5,055

Total:						6.4	%	No			0	0	0	2	1	4	9	15	19	21	18	9	2	0	3,205,900

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	+0.1
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	-0.1
Dallas 2 Buffalo 1 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Montreal	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0
Detroit vs Arizona	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

94	8	0		-	0						0	1	3	1	8	35	7	31	0	12		2	0
93	7	0		-	1							0	1	0	1	21	9	25	1	30	0	11	1
92	7	1		-	0							0	0	0	0	12	11	13	2	34	0	23	4	0	0
	6	0		-	2								0		0	10	11	12	2	35	0	24	6	0
91	6	1		-	1								0		0	3	6	4	1	26	0	39	17	2	0
	5	0		-	3											3	5	2	1	26	0	40	18	3	0
90	6	2		-	0							0	0			1	5	1	1	14	1	38	31	8	1	0
	5	1		-	2								0			1	4	1	1	12	1	37	33	10	1	0
	4	0		-	4											1	3	1	1	11	1	36	34	11	2
89	5	2		-	1								0			0	1	0	0	3	1	24	41	24	5	0	0
	4	1		-	3											0	1	0	0	3	1	22	42	26	6	0
	3	0		-	5												6			6		12	41	35
88	5	3		-	0											0	1	0	0	1	0	10	33	37	15	2	0	0
	4	2		-	2											0	0		0	0	0	9	32	39	17	3	0	0
	3	1		-	4												1			1	1	9	31	35	20	4	0	0
	2	0		-	6																		100
87	4	3		-	1											0	0		0	0	0	2	15	36	34	11	2	0	0
	3	2		-	3												0				0	1	13	35	36	13	2	0
	2	1		-	5																	3	19	23	39	16
86	4	4		-	0												0			0	0	0	4	20	37	28	9	1	0	0
	3	3		-	2												0			0	0	0	3	18	37	29	10	2	0
	2	2		-	4																		3	14	38	31	12	2	0
	1	1		-	6																			50			50
85	3	4		-	1																	0	0	5	22	36	27	9	1	0
	2	3		-	3																	0	1	4	20	36	28	10	1	0
	1	2		-	5																		2	2	14	43	31	8
84	3	5		-	0																		0	1	6	23	37	26	7	0	0
	2	4		-	2																		0	1	6	22	36	27	7	1	0
	1	3		-	4																			0	4	19	39	30	7	1
	0	2		-	6																								100
83	2	5		-	1																		0	0	1	7	26	39	22	4	0	0
	1	4		-	3																			0	1	6	24	39	25	5	1
	0	3		-	5																					14	29	36	21
82	2	6		-	0																			0	0	1	10	33	38	15	2	0	0
	1	5		-	2																				0	1	9	31	38	17	3	0	0
	0	4		-	4																						6	26	44	16	8
81	1	6		-	1																					0	2	15	37	33	12	2	0	0
	0	5		-	3																					0	2	12	34	36	13	3	0
80	1	7		-	0																					0	0	4	22	39	26	8	1	0
	0	6		-	2																						0	3	19	37	30	11	1	0
79	0	7		-	1																						0	0	7	27	37	23	6	0	0
78	0	8		-	0																							0	2	11	31	37	17	2	0

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	9	14	16	16	13	11	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0