Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.4 to 10.8%

77 points 36 32-5

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	+0.5		+0.1
Dallas 2 Buffalo 1 (so)	*-0.1
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Montreal	-5.7-1.4-1.4+4.4+5.2+5.3		-0.6-0.0-0.0+0.5+0.5+0.5
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	-1.0-0.9-1.0*+0.1+0.4+1.1		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	-0.7-0.7-0.7+0.4*+0.3+0.7		-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs St Louis	-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.1-0.1+0.5
Detroit vs Arizona			-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Montreal finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

95	9	0		-	0	99.9	%	No			1	10	25	23	38	2	0								6,546
94	8	0		-	1	99.3		No			0	3	12	28	47	9	1								6,572
93	8	1		-	0	96.2		No			0	1	3	23	46	23	4	0							49,952
	7	0		-	2	95.1		No				1	2	23	45	24	5	0							3,020
92	7	1		-	1	84.4		No				0	1	16	30	37	14	2	0						46,467
	6	0		-	3	81.1		No				0	0	17	27	37	17	2	0						871
91	7	2		-	0	62.9		No				0	0	8	15	40	30	7	0	0	0				175,635
	6	1		-	2	59.1		No				0	0	8	14	38	32	9	1	0					19,188
	5	0		-	4	45.0		No						7	11	27	39	15	1						169
90	6	2		-	1	35.2		No				0	0	5	4	26	41	20	3	0	0				144,198
	5	1		-	3	31.9		No						4	4	24	42	21	4	0					4,473
	4	0		-	5	16.7		No						6		11	39	39	6						18
89	6	3		-	0	14.1		No				0		1	1	12	35	36	13	2	0				362,952
	5	2		-	2	11.8		No				0		1	1	10	33	37	16	2	0				50,340
	4	1		-	4	8.3		No						2	0	6	30	39	20	2	0				615
	3	0		-	6	Out		No									50		50						2
88	5	3		-	1	3.6		No						1	0	3	20	39	29	8	1	0			254,521
	4	2		-	3	2.5		No						0	0	2	17	39	31	9	1	0			9,907
	3	1		-	5	3.6		No						4			7	39	41	9					56
87	5	4		-	0	0.6		No						0	0	0	7	27	40	22	4	0			479,025
	4	3		-	2	0.4		No						0	0	0	5	25	40	25	5	0			74,274
	3	2		-	4	Out		No									5	23	39	26	6	0			1,117
	2	1		-	6	Out		No										67			33				3
86	4	4		-	1	0.1		No						0		0	1	12	34	37	15	1	0		280,263
	3	3		-	3	0.0		No								0	1	10	32	38	17	2			11,580
	2	2		-	5	Out		No									2	9	30	36	20	2			88
85	4	5		-	0	0.0		No								0	0	3	19	41	31	5	0		423,040
	3	4		-	2	Out		No									0	2	17	40	34	6	0		65,380
	2	3		-	4	Out		No										2	16	41	32	9	0		990
	1	2		-	6	Out		No												25	75				4
84	3	5		-	1	Out		No									0	0	6	29	46	17	1	0	197,665
	2	4		-	3	Out		No										0	6	27	48	19	1	0	7,684
	1	3		-	5	Out		No											4	29	45	22			51
83	3	6		-	0	Out		No										0	1	14	47	33	4	0	249,522
	2	5		-	2	Out		No										0	1	12	46	37	5	0	34,842
	1	4		-	4	Out		No											0	11	45	40	3		467
	0	3		-	6	Out		No														100			1
82	2	6		-	1	Out		No										0	0	4	33	51	12	0	88,037
	1	5		-	3	Out		No											0	4	30	53	12	0	2,707
	0	4		-	5	Out		No												15	8	54	23		13
81	2	7		-	0	Out		No											0	1	17	52	27	3	93,907
	1	6		-	2	Out		No											0	1	14	51	31	3	10,110
	0	5		-	4	Out		No												3	16	51	24	5	74
80	1	7		-	1	Out		No												0	6	44	42	8	22,083
	0	6		-	3	Out		No													6	43	40	11	374
79	1	8		-	0	Out		No												0	2	25	53	20	21,081
	0	7		-	2	Out		No													1	23	53	22	1,256
78	0	8		-	1	Out		No													0	13	52	34	2,478
77	0	9		-	0	Out		No														5	40	55	2,282

Total:						10.8	%	No			0	0	0	2	3	6	11	15	18	18	16	9	2	0	3,205,900

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	-0.1
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	+0.1
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	+0.0
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville vs Montreal	+0.9+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.8-0.8
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	-0.0*+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	9	0		-	0						1	4	6	7	19	23	1	38		2		0
94	8	0		-	1						0	1	3	1	10	26	2	47	0	9		1
93	8	1		-	0						0	0	1	0	3	19	4	45	1	23	0	4	0
	7	0		-	2							0	1	0	2	18	5	44	1	24		5	0
92	7	1		-	1							0	0	0	1	10	6	28	2	37	0	14	2	0
	6	0		-	3								0		0	10	7	25	2	37		17	2	0
91	7	2		-	0								0	0	0	4	5	13	3	39	0	30	7	0	0	0
	6	1		-	2								0		0	3	4	11	2	38	0	32	9	1	0
	5	0		-	4											2	5	8	3	27		39	15	1
90	6	2		-	1								0		0	1	4	3	2	25	1	41	20	3	0	0
	5	1		-	3											1	3	2	1	23	1	42	21	4	0
	4	0		-	5											6				11		39	39	6
89	6	3		-	0								0			0	1	0	1	10	2	35	36	13	2	0
	5	2		-	2								0			0	1	0	0	8	1	33	37	16	2	0
	4	1		-	4											0	2	0	0	5	1	29	39	20	3	0
	3	0		-	6																	50		50
88	5	3		-	1											0	1	0	0	2	1	19	39	29	9	1	0	0
	4	2		-	3												0	0	0	1	1	16	38	32	11	1	0
	3	1		-	5												4					7	36	43	9	2
87	5	4		-	0											0	0	0	0	0	0	5	23	38	25	7	1	0	0
	4	3		-	2												0		0	0	0	4	21	37	27	9	1	0
	3	2		-	4																	3	19	39	27	11	1	0
	2	1		-	6																		67			33
86	4	4		-	1												0			0	0	1	8	26	36	22	7	1	0
	3	3		-	3																0	1	6	24	35	25	8	1	0
	2	2		-	5																	1	6	19	30	33	10	1
85	4	5		-	0																0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0
	3	4		-	2																	0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0
	2	3		-	4																		0	5	25	33	25	10	2	0
	1	2		-	6																				25	25	50
84	3	5		-	1																	0	0	1	9	25	36	23	5	0	0
	2	4		-	3																		0	1	7	23	36	25	7	0
	1	3		-	5																			2	4	20	35	33	6
83	3	6		-	0																		0	0	1	9	27	39	20	3	0	0
	2	5		-	2																			0	1	7	26	40	22	4	0	0
	1	4		-	4																				1	6	22	40	25	4	0
	0	3		-	6																								100
82	2	6		-	1																			0	0	2	11	36	38	12	1	0	0
	1	5		-	3																					1	11	33	41	12	1	0
	0	4		-	5																						23	8	38	31
81	2	7		-	0																				0	0	2	18	42	30	8	1	0
	1	6		-	2																					0	2	15	41	32	9	1	0
	0	5		-	4																						1	16	41	28	14
80	1	7		-	1																					0	0	6	31	40	19	3	0	0
	0	6		-	3																						0	6	31	40	18	5	0
79	1	8		-	0																						0	1	12	35	35	15	2	0	0
	0	7		-	2																							1	10	33	36	17	3	0
78	0	8		-	1																							0	5	23	39	26	7	1
77	0	9		-	0																								1	7	26	36	24	6	0

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	6	0	11	14	15	13	11	9	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0