Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Lost to Calgary 3-4 (so), playoff odds down 0.8 to 0.5%

68 points 31 35-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	-0.6		-0.1
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	-0.3
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	-0.2
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5			-0.1
Ottawa 2 San Jose 1			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Arizona	+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Pittsburgh vs St Louis			+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

88	10	0		-	0	71.3	%	No				0		8	19	44	25	4	0						3,372
87	9	0		-	1	43.9		No						3	8	33	38	16	2						3,620
86	9	1		-	0	21.7		No						1	2	19	42	30	6						27,681
	8	0		-	2	19.9		No						0	2	18	40	33	7						1,901
85	8	1		-	1	7.0		No						0	0	7	30	45	18	0					29,198
	7	0		-	3	7.5		No							0	7	26	44	23						615
84	8	2		-	0	1.9		No						0	0	2	17	47	33	0					109,693
	7	1		-	2	1.7		No						0	0	2	15	46	37	0					13,639
	6	0		-	4	0.8		No								1	6	41	52	1					130
83	7	2		-	1	0.3		No						0	0	0	6	37	56	1	0				102,969
	6	1		-	3	0.1		No								0	5	32	62	1					3,662
	5	0		-	5	Out		No									7	40	53						15
82	7	3		-	0	0.0		No								0	2	25	69	4	0				259,057
	6	2		-	2	0.0		No								0	2	22	72	5	0				42,415
	5	1		-	4	Out		No									1	16	77	6					646	*
81	6	3		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	11	79	9	0				212,363
	5	2		-	3	Out		No									0	9	80	11	0				9,802
	4	1		-	5	Out		No										10	84	6					83
80	6	4		-	0	Out		No									0	5	72	22	1	0			399,905
	5	3		-	2	Out		No									0	4	71	23	2	0			74,152
	4	2		-	4	Out		No										2	71	26	1				1,406	*
79	5	4		-	1	Out		No									0	1	62	33	4	0			280,301
	4	3		-	3	Out		No										1	60	34	4	0			14,400
	3	2		-	5	Out		No										1	62	32	5				167
78	5	5		-	0	Out		No										0	42	46	12	0			423,215
	4	4		-	2	Out		No									0	0	40	46	13	0			82,201
	3	3		-	4	Out		No											37	47	15	1			1,697	*
77	4	5		-	1	Out		No										0	27	49	22	2			247,728
	3	4		-	3	Out		No										0	26	49	23	2			12,801
	2	3		-	5	Out		No											26	47	25	1			118	*
76	4	6		-	0	Out		No										0	12	44	38	5			311,221
	3	5		-	2	Out		No										0	11	44	39	6			58,478
	2	4		-	4	Out		No											12	42	39	7			1,174	*
75	3	6		-	1	Out		No											5	33	48	14			145,948
	2	5		-	3	Out		No											5	31	48	17			6,754
	1	4		-	5	Out		No											6	26	43	25			53
74	3	7		-	0	Out		No											1	18	54	27			155,870
	2	6		-	2	Out		No											1	17	53	29			25,743
	1	5		-	4	Out		No											0	16	56	27			429	*
73	2	7		-	1	Out		No											0	9	44	47			54,952
	1	6		-	3	Out		No											0	8	42	50			2,024	*
72	2	8		-	0	Out		No											0	3	35	62			51,883
	1	7		-	2	Out		No											0	3	35	62			6,490
	0	6		-	4	Out		No												2	28	70			60
71	1	8		-	1	Out		No											0	1	19	80			12,318
	0	7		-	3	Out		No												1	15	84			252
70	1	9		-	0	Out		No												0	12	88			10,246
	0	8		-	2	Out		No													10	90			708
69	0	9		-	1	Out		No													4	96			1,163
68	0	10		-	0	Out		No													1	99			1,182

Total:						0.5	%	No				0		0	0	0	2	8	42	26	16	6			3,205,900

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	+0.1
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	+0.1
Ottawa 2 San Jose 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Florida	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	-0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs St Louis	-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Detroit vs Arizona	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

88	10	0		-	0								0			0	8		19	0	43	2	7	10	8	2	1	0	0
87	9	0		-	1												3		8		33	0	4	13	18	15	5	1
86	9	1		-	0												1		2	0	19	0	1	6	18	27	19	6	1	0
	8	0		-	2												0		2		18	0	0	5	17	27	21	8	2	0
85	8	1		-	1												0		0		7		0	1	7	22	32	23	7	1
	7	0		-	3														0		7			1	5	19	32	25	9	1	0
84	8	2		-	0												0		0		2		0	0	1	8	25	35	22	5	0	0
	7	1		-	2												0		0		2			0	1	7	22	36	26	6	0
	6	0		-	4																1					5	14	35	35	11
83	7	2		-	1												0		0		0				0	1	9	29	39	19	2	0	0
	6	1		-	3																0				0	1	7	26	42	21	3	0
	5	0		-	5																						13	27	40	20
82	7	3		-	0																0				0	0	2	13	37	37	10	1	0
	6	2		-	2																0				0	0	1	11	36	39	12	1	0
	5	1		-	4																					0	1	9	33	40	15	1
81	6	3		-	1																0					0	0	3	23	45	25	4	0	0
	5	2		-	3																					0	0	2	20	45	27	5	0
	4	1		-	5																							1	22	45	25	7
80	6	4		-	0																						0	1	8	35	39	15	2	0	0
	5	3		-	2																						0	0	7	33	40	17	3	0
	4	2		-	4																							0	5	29	42	21	3	0
79	5	4		-	1																						0	0	2	20	41	28	8	1	0
	4	3		-	3																							0	2	18	41	30	9	1	0
	3	2		-	5																								1	17	38	35	9	1
78	5	5		-	0																							0	0	7	29	39	21	4	0
	4	4		-	2																							0	0	6	27	39	23	4	0
	3	3		-	4																								0	5	24	39	24	7	0
77	4	5		-	1																								0	2	15	36	34	11	1
	3	4		-	3																								0	2	14	36	35	12	1
	2	3		-	5																									2	14	33	35	16	1
76	4	6		-	0																								0	0	5	23	41	26	3
	3	5		-	2																								0	0	4	22	42	28	4
	2	4		-	4																									0	4	19	41	30	5
75	3	6		-	1																									0	1	11	35	41	11
	2	5		-	3																									0	1	10	34	42	13
	1	4		-	5																											15	23	40	23
74	3	7		-	0																									0	0	4	23	50	23
	2	6		-	2																										0	3	21	50	26
	1	5		-	4																										0	1	20	53	26
73	2	7		-	1																										0	1	11	44	44
	1	6		-	3																											1	11	42	47
72	2	8		-	0																										0	0	4	36	60
	1	7		-	2																											0	3	36	61
	0	6		-	4																												3	27	70
71	1	8		-	1																											0	1	20	79
	0	7		-	3																												1	16	83
70	1	9		-	0																												0	13	87
	0	8		-	2																													10	90
69	0	9		-	1																													4	96
68	0	10		-	0																													1	99

Total:													0			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	16	19	18	15	11	5