Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Beat Colorado 4-3 (so), playoff odds up 3.5 to 47%

77 points 34 30-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	+7.5		+0.3
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	-3.5		-0.1
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	-1.8		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	+3.9*+0.3+0.8-3.2-3.6-3.5		+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Arizona	+3.7-0.4-0.3-3.4-3.3-3.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	+3.0+0.9+0.8-2.2-2.7-2.8		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Nashville vs Montreal	-0.5-0.4-0.3+0.0-0.2+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

95	9	0		-	0	In		No			0	0	26	1	73	0									6,510
94	8	0		-	1	In		No				0	11	2	86	0									6,580
93	8	1		-	0	In		No				0	6	2	90	2									49,554
	7	0		-	2	100.0	%	No				0	4	2	91	3	0								3,173
92	7	1		-	1	99.9		No					1	1	90	7	0								46,858
	6	0		-	3	99.5		No					2	2	88	8	0								803
91	7	2		-	0	99.6		No					1	1	85	14	0	0							175,756
	6	1		-	2	99.2		No					0	1	82	17	1								19,164
	5	0		-	4	97.0		No							78	19	3								132
90	6	2		-	1	96.8		No					0	0	66	31	3	0							143,898
	5	1		-	3	94.3		No					0	0	58	36	5	0							4,571
	4	0		-	5	87.5		No							25	63		13							8
89	6	3		-	0	91.3		No					0	0	51	41	8	0							361,493
	5	2		-	2	88.2		No						0	45	43	11	1							50,416
	4	1		-	4	83.7		No							38	46	16	1							615
	3	0		-	6	In		No							100										1
88	5	3		-	1	74.3		No							26	48	23	3	0						253,407
	4	2		-	3	65.4		No							20	46	30	5							9,773
	3	1		-	5	63.2		No							12	51	35	1							68
87	5	4		-	0	56.8		No							14	43	36	7	0						479,754
	4	3		-	2	49.6		No							11	39	41	10	0						74,462
	3	2		-	4	44.3		No							8	36	43	12	0						1,186
	2	1		-	6	57.1		No							14	43	43								7
86	4	4		-	1	30.6		No							4	27	49	20	0						281,016
	3	3		-	3	21.2		No							2	19	50	29	0						11,653
	2	2		-	5	19.0		No							1	18	37	44							100
85	4	5		-	0	15.9		No							1	15	48	35	1						422,666
	3	4		-	2	12.3		No							1	12	46	41	1	0					65,590
	2	3		-	4	7.3		No							1	7	43	49	1						997
	1	2		-	6	Out		No										100							3
84	3	5		-	1	4.8		No							0	5	35	56	4	0					198,542
	2	4		-	3	2.4		No							0	2	28	66	4	0					7,795
	1	3		-	5	Out		No									11	82	7						56
83	3	6		-	0	1.4		No							0	1	23	68	8	0	0				250,079
	2	5		-	2	0.9		No							0	1	19	72	9	0	0				34,733
	1	4		-	4	0.5		No								0	13	74	12	0					435
82	2	6		-	1	0.2		No								0	9	68	22	1	0				87,289
	1	5		-	3	Out		No									5	69	24	2	0				2,787
	0	4		-	5	Out		No									10	80	10						10
81	2	7		-	0	0.0		No								0	4	62	31	3	0				94,207
	1	6		-	2	Out		No									3	60	33	4	0				10,087
	0	5		-	4	Out		No									2	57	33	7	2				61
80	1	7		-	1	Out		No									0	38	46	14	1	0			22,196
	0	6		-	3	Out		No										31	52	16	1				369
79	1	8		-	0	Out		No									0	26	49	22	3	0			20,942
	0	7		-	2	Out		No										25	48	24	3				1,315
78	0	8		-	1	Out		No										10	37	39	14	0			2,442
77	0	9		-	0	Out		No										4	26	45	23	2			2,341

Total:						47.0	%	No			0	0	0	0	23	24	26	23	3	0	0	0			3,205,900

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	-0.8
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	+0.2
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	-0.2*-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Detroit vs Arizona	-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Nashville vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	9	0		-	0						0	0	0	3	22	1	0	59	14	0
94	8	0		-	1								0	0	11	1	1	53	33	0	0
93	8	1		-	0								0	0	6	1	2	30	60	1	0
	7	0		-	2								0	0	4	1	2	29	62	2	1	0
92	7	1		-	1										1	0	1	13	77	4	3	0	0
	6	0		-	3										2	0	1	11	76	4	4	0	0
91	7	2		-	0										1	0	1	3	81	4	9	0	0	0	0
	6	1		-	2										0	0	1	3	78	5	12	1	0	0
	5	0		-	4													4	74	7	12	2	1
90	6	2		-	1										0	0	0	0	66	3	27	1	1	0	0	0
	5	1		-	3										0		0	0	58	4	32	2	2	1	0
	4	0		-	5														25		63		13
89	6	3		-	0										0		0	0	51	1	40	2	3	3	1	0	0	0
	5	2		-	2												0	0	45	1	42	2	4	4	1	0	0
	4	1		-	4														38	1	45	2	7	5	2	0
	3	0		-	6														100
88	5	3		-	1													0	26	0	48	1	5	9	7	2	0	0
	4	2		-	3														20	0	46	2	7	12	10	3	1
	3	1		-	5														12		51	3	7	9	16		1
87	5	4		-	0														14	0	43	0	3	11	16	10	3	0	0
	4	3		-	2														11	0	39	0	3	11	18	13	4	0	0
	3	2		-	4														8		36	1	3	10	21	15	5	1
	2	1		-	6														14		43			14		29
86	4	4		-	1														4		27	0	1	5	18	26	16	4	0	0
	3	3		-	3														2		19	0	1	5	18	28	20	6	0
	2	2		-	5														1		18		1	4	16	27	23	9	1
85	4	5		-	0														1		15	0	0	1	9	26	31	14	2	0	0
	3	4		-	2														1		12	0	0	1	8	25	33	17	3	0
	2	3		-	4														1		7			1	7	26	36	21	2	0
	1	2		-	6																						33	67
84	3	5		-	1														0		5		0	0	2	12	33	35	12	1	0	0
	2	4		-	3														0		2			0	1	10	31	39	15	2	0
	1	3		-	5																					5	23	54	16	2
83	3	6		-	0														0		1		0	0	0	3	20	42	27	5	0	0
	2	5		-	2														0		1			0	0	3	18	42	30	6	0	0
	1	4		-	4																0				0	2	12	41	35	8	1
82	2	6		-	1																0				0	0	5	27	41	22	5	0	0
	1	5		-	3																					0	4	24	42	25	5	1	0
	0	4		-	5																							60	20	20
81	2	7		-	0																0					0	1	14	39	32	12	2	0	0
	1	6		-	2																					0	1	13	36	35	13	2	0
	0	5		-	4																						3	5	30	38	23		2
80	1	7		-	1																						0	3	18	36	30	11	2	0
	0	6		-	3																							3	14	34	32	15	3	0
79	1	8		-	0																						0	1	9	27	36	21	5	1	0
	0	7		-	2																							1	7	25	35	24	7	1
78	0	8		-	1																							0	1	9	27	36	22	5	0
77	0	9		-	0																							0	0	4	17	33	32	13	1

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	22	1	23	1	2	4	7	9	11	10	6	3	1	0	0	0	0