Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2014-2015

Beat Colorado 4-3 (so), playoff odds up 0.8 to 38.1%

77 points 34 30-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	+6.0		+0.2
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	-3.8		-0.1
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	-2.4		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	+3.3+0.2+0.2-3.9-4.1-4.0		+0.1*+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Detroit vs Arizona	+3.6+0.1-0.0-2.5-2.4-2.4		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	+3.0+0.9+0.8-2.4-2.9-2.9		+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Nashville vs Montreal	-0.7-0.7-0.5*-0.1-0.4+0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

95	9	0		-	0	In		No			0	0	20	1	79	0									10,940
94	8	0		-	1	In		No				0	9	1	89	1									12,470
93	8	1		-	0	100.0	%	No				0	5	1	91	2	0								92,937
	7	0		-	2	100.0		No					4	2	91	4	0								6,765
92	7	1		-	1	99.9		No					1	1	88	10	0								101,499
	6	0		-	3	99.8		No					1	1	86	13	0								2,206
91	7	2		-	0	99.5		No					0	0	82	17	1	0							382,546
	6	1		-	2	99.0		No					0	0	78	20	1	0							48,269
	5	0		-	4	97.7		No							73	24	2								435
90	6	2		-	1	96.3		No					0	0	61	35	4	0							365,262
	5	1		-	3	93.6		No					0	0	54	39	6	0							13,035
	4	0		-	5	90.2		No							54	37	10								41
89	6	3		-	0	90.1		No					0	0	46	44	9	0							917,835
	5	2		-	2	86.1		No					0	0	40	46	13	1							148,676
	4	1		-	4	82.2		No							34	48	16	1							2,248
	3	0		-	6	80.0		No							20	60	20								5
88	5	3		-	1	71.4		No							22	49	26	3	0						745,620
	4	2		-	3	61.0		No							16	45	33	6							33,458
	3	1		-	5	52.7		No							10	43	39	8							220	*
87	5	4		-	0	52.8		No							11	42	39	8	0						1,406,246
	4	3		-	2	45.4		No							8	37	43	12	0						250,965
	3	2		-	4	37.2		No							6	31	47	16	0						4,476
	2	1		-	6	33.3		No								33	53	13							15
86	4	4		-	1	27.3		No							3	24	50	23	0						945,836
	3	3		-	3	18.3		No							1	17	49	33	0						44,787
	2	2		-	5	12.8		No							1	11	46	41							360	*
85	4	5		-	0	13.4		No							1	13	48	39	0						1,428,601
	3	4		-	2	10.0		No							1	9	45	45	0						254,663
	2	3		-	4	6.4		No							0	6	41	53	0						4,534
	1	2		-	6	8.3		No								8	50	42							12
84	3	5		-	1	3.9		No							0	4	34	60	2	0					766,008
	2	4		-	3	1.9		No							0	2	26	70	2	0					34,147
	1	3		-	5	0.4		No								0	15	82	2						242
83	3	6		-	0	1.1		No							0	1	22	74	4	0					963,264
	2	5		-	2	0.7		No							0	1	18	77	4	0					153,431
	1	4		-	4	0.4		No								0	12	82	6						2,313
	0	3		-	6	Out		No									18	73	9						11
82	2	6		-	1	0.2		No							0	0	9	78	12	0	0				385,311
	1	5		-	3	0.0		No								0	5	81	13	1					13,583
	0	4		-	5	Out		No									4	70	24	2					54
81	2	7		-	0	0.0		No								0	4	76	19	1	0				416,012
	1	6		-	2	0.0		No								0	2	75	21	1	0				51,378
	0	5		-	4	Out		No									1	76	22	1					454
80	1	7		-	1	Out		No									1	58	36	5	0				110,278
	0	6		-	3	Out		No									0	55	39	6	0				2,247
79	1	8		-	0	Out		No									0	46	43	10	1				104,069
	0	7		-	2	Out		No									0	41	46	12	1				7,353
78	0	8		-	1	Out		No									0	22	48	27	4	0			13,607
77	0	9		-	0	Out		No										14	43	36	8	0			12,216

Total:						38.1	%	No			0	0	0	0	16	22	28	31	3	0	0	0			10,260,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary 4 Colorado 3 (so)	-0.7
Edmonton 5 Winnipeg 6 (so)	+0.2
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver vs Winnipeg	-0.2*-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Detroit vs Arizona	-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.1
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Nashville vs Montreal	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

95	9	0		-	0						0	0	0	2	18	0	0	58	20	0
94	8	0		-	1								0	0	9	1	1	46	42	1	0
93	8	1		-	0								0	0	5	0	1	25	66	2	1	0
	7	0		-	2									0	4	0	1	25	66	3	1	0
92	7	1		-	1										1	0	1	10	78	5	5	0	0	0
	6	0		-	3										1	0	1	10	76	7	6	0	0
91	7	2		-	0										0	0	0	2	80	4	12	0	0	0
	6	1		-	2										0	0	0	2	76	5	15	1	0	0
	5	0		-	4													1	72	6	18	2	0
90	6	2		-	1										0	0	0	0	61	4	31	2	1	0	0	0
	5	1		-	3										0		0	0	54	4	35	3	2	1	0
	4	0		-	5														54		37	2	7
89	6	3		-	0										0		0	0	46	1	43	2	4	3	1	0	0	0
	5	2		-	2										0		0	0	40	1	45	3	5	4	1	0	0
	4	1		-	4														34	1	48	3	7	6	2	0
	3	0		-	6														20		60		20
88	5	3		-	1													0	22	0	49	2	7	11	7	2	0	0
	4	2		-	3														16	0	45	2	8	15	10	3	0	0
	3	1		-	5														10		43	2	10	17	13	5	0
87	5	4		-	0														11	0	41	0	4	13	17	10	2	0	0
	4	3		-	2														8	0	37	0	4	14	20	13	3	0	0
	3	2		-	4														6		31	0	4	15	23	15	4	0	0
	2	1		-	6																33			13	40	13
86	4	4		-	1														3		24	0	1	7	21	27	14	3	0	0
	3	3		-	3														1		17	0	1	7	22	30	18	4	0
	2	2		-	5														1		11		1	6	21	31	21	7
85	4	5		-	0														1		13	0	0	2	13	30	30	11	1	0
	3	4		-	2														1		9	0	0	2	11	30	33	13	1	0
	2	3		-	4														0		6		0	2	10	29	36	15	2	0
	1	2		-	6																8					67	17	8
84	3	5		-	1														0		4		0	0	3	17	38	31	6	0	0
	2	4		-	3														0		2			0	2	14	38	36	8	0	0
	1	3		-	5																0				1	9	37	44	8	1
83	3	6		-	0														0		1		0	0	0	6	29	45	17	2	0	0
	2	5		-	2														0		1			0	0	5	26	47	19	2	0	0
	1	4		-	4																0				0	4	21	47	24	3	0
	0	3		-	6																						55	18	18	9
82	2	6		-	1														0		0			0	0	1	10	41	37	10	1	0	0
	1	5		-	3																0				0	1	8	40	38	12	1	0
	0	4		-	5																						9	31	39	17	4
81	2	7		-	0																0				0	0	3	29	44	20	4	0	0
	1	6		-	2																0					0	2	26	44	22	5	0	0	0
	0	5		-	4																						2	23	46	23	6	0
80	1	7		-	1																						0	9	33	36	17	3	0	0
	0	6		-	3																						0	9	31	37	18	4	0	0
79	1	8		-	0																						0	4	22	38	27	9	1	0
	0	7		-	2																						0	3	20	36	30	10	2	0
78	0	8		-	1																						0	0	5	22	35	27	9	1
77	0	9		-	0																							0	2	13	30	35	17	3	0

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	16	1	21	1	2	4	8	11	13	13	7	2	1	0	0	0	0