Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Lost to Dallas 1-2 (so), playoff odds up 0.6 to 97.4%

86 points 38 25-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Dallas 2 Buffalo 1 (so)	+0.5		-0.0
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	+0.2
New Jersey 3 Los Angeles 5	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville vs Montreal	+0.6+0.0+0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5
NY Islanders vs Minnesota	-0.1-0.2-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1
NY Rangers vs Los Angeles	-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1
Pittsburgh vs St Louis	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs Florida			+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Buffalo finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

104	9	0		-	0	In		1.8	%	18	1	75	0	6												6,469
103	8	0		-	1	In		0.5		10	3	74	0	13												6,652
102	8	1		-	0	In		0.1		3	2	72	2	21												49,645
	7	0		-	2	In		0.2		3	2	70	2	23												3,071
101	7	1		-	1	In		0.0		1	1	56	5	37	0											46,496
	6	0		-	3	In		No		1	1	54	6	38												885
100	7	2		-	0	In		No		0	0	44	9	46	0											176,367
	6	1		-	2	In		No		0	0	41	10	48	0											19,005
	5	0		-	4	In		No				43	12	45												166
99	6	2		-	1	In		No		0	0	23	13	63	1											144,069
	5	1		-	3	In		No		0	0	21	14	64	2											4,454
	4	0		-	5	In		No				6	29	65												17
98	6	3		-	0	In		No			0	12	16	66	6											362,241
	5	2		-	2	In		No			0	11	16	67	7											50,661
	4	1		-	4	In		No				11	17	65	8											674
	3	0		-	6	In		No				25		50	25											4
97	5	3		-	1	In		No			0	3	12	65	19											254,691
	4	2		-	3	In		No				3	12	64	21											9,947
	3	1		-	5	In		No				5	14	50	31											42
96	5	4		-	0	In		No				1	10	50	39											479,240
	4	3		-	2	In		No				1	10	48	42											74,529
	3	2		-	4	In		No				0	8	45	47											1,127
	2	1		-	6	In		No					33	50	17											6
95	4	4		-	1	100.0	%	No				0	4	28	67	0	0	0								280,470
	3	3		-	3	In		No				0	4	26	70	0	0									11,571
	2	2		-	5	In		No					2	27	71											85
	1	1		-	7	In		No							100											1
94	4	5		-	0	100.0		No				0	3	12	84	1	0	0	0	0						422,521
	3	4		-	2	99.9		No				0	3	11	86	0	0	0	0							65,456
	2	3		-	4	99.8		No					2	11	86	1	0	0								1,059
	1	2		-	6	In		No							100											3
93	3	5		-	1	99.4		No					1	3	93	1	1	1	0	0						198,287
	2	4		-	3	99.2		No					1	2	94	1	2	1	0							7,721
	1	3		-	5	98.1		No					2	4	88	2	2	2								52
92	3	6		-	0	96.5		No					0	1	91	1	3	3	1	0	0					248,199
	2	5		-	2	96.0		No					0	0	90	1	4	3	1	0						34,638
	1	4		-	4	94.3		No					0	0	89	1	5	4	2							400
91	2	6		-	1	87.5		No					0	0	82	1	5	8	4	1	0					87,826
	1	5		-	3	86.4		No					0		81	1	5	8	5	1						2,756
	0	4		-	5	87.5		No							88			13								8
90	2	7		-	0	71.3		No					0	0	68	0	3	11	13	4	0	0				94,154
	1	6		-	2	69.7		No					0		66	0	3	12	14	5	1					10,233
	0	5		-	4	67.0		No							61	1	5	17	10	6						88
89	1	7		-	1	49.6		No							48	0	1	10	22	16	3	0	0			22,301
	0	6		-	3	48.7		No							47		2	9	23	16	3					409
88	1	8		-	0	30.3		No							30		0	4	21	30	13	2	0			21,120
	0	7		-	2	29.8		No							30		0	3	20	31	14	2				1,286
87	0	8		-	1	13.1		No							13			1	11	36	30	9	1			2,482
86	0	9		-	0	4.9		No							5			0	4	25	42	22	2			2,316

Total:						97.4	%	0.0	%	0	0	8	7	34	47	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0			3,205,900

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dallas 2 Buffalo 1 (so)	+0.1
Toronto 2 Minnesota 3 (so)	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa Bay vs Florida	-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Pittsburgh vs St Louis	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

104	9	0		-	0	2	16	1	0	63	12	0		6
103	8	0		-	1	0	9	3	0	53	21	0		13	0
102	8	1		-	0	0	3	2	0	43	30	2		21	0
	7	0		-	2	0	3	1	0	35	35	2		23	0
101	7	1		-	1	0	1	1	0	22	34	5	0	34	2	0
	6	0		-	3		1	1	0	17	38	6	0	35	3
100	7	2		-	0		0	0	0	11	32	9	0	42	5	0
	6	1		-	2		0	0	0	8	33	10	0	41	7	0
	5	0		-	4					3	40	10	2	35	10
99	6	2		-	1		0	0	0	3	20	12	1	47	16	1
	5	1		-	3		0		0	2	19	13	1	44	19	2
	4	0		-	5						6	29		59	6
98	6	3		-	0			0	0	1	12	13	3	43	23	6	0
	5	2		-	2			0	0	0	10	13	3	39	28	7	0
	4	1		-	4					0	10	14	3	38	27	8
	3	0		-	6						25			50		25
97	5	3		-	1			0	0	0	3	8	4	27	38	19	0
	4	2		-	3					0	3	8	4	23	40	21	0
	3	1		-	5						5	12	2	17	33	31
96	5	4		-	0					0	1	5	5	16	34	38	1
	4	3		-	2						1	4	5	12	35	40	2
	3	2		-	4						0	4	5	11	34	45	2
	2	1		-	6							33			50	17
95	4	4		-	1						0	1	3	4	25	59	8	0	0	0		0
	3	3		-	3						0	1	3	3	23	60	10	0		0
	2	2		-	5								2	1	26	61	9
	1	1		-	7												100
94	4	5		-	0						0	0	2	1	11	64	20	0	0	0		0	0	0
	3	4		-	2						0	0	2	1	10	64	22	0	0	0		0	0
	2	3		-	4							0	2	0	10	66	20	1		0		0
	1	2		-	6											100
93	3	5		-	1							0	1	0	3	51	42	1	0	1	0	1	0	0
	2	4		-	3							0	1	0	2	49	44	1	0	2		1	0
	1	3		-	5								2		4	58	31	2		2		2
92	3	6		-	0							0	0	0	1	35	56	1	0	3	0	3	1	0	0
	2	5		-	2								0		0	34	57	1	0	4	0	3	1	0
	1	4		-	4								0		0	32	57	1		4	1	4	2
91	2	6		-	1								0		0	17	65	0	0	4	0	8	4	1	0
	1	5		-	3								0			14	67	0	0	5	0	8	5	1
	0	4		-	5											25	63					13
90	2	7		-	0								0		0	7	60	0	0	3	1	11	13	4	0	0
	1	6		-	2								0			7	59	0	0	3	1	11	14	5	1
	0	5		-	4											5	57	1		3	1	17	10	6
89	1	7		-	1											2	47		0	1	1	9	21	16	4	0	0
	0	6		-	3											1	46			1	1	7	22	19	3	0
88	1	8		-	0											0	30			0	0	3	18	29	16	4	0	0
	0	7		-	2											0	30				0	2	15	30	17	5	0
87	0	8		-	1											0	13					0	7	26	30	18	5	1	0
86	0	9		-	0												5					0	2	11	27	32	19	5	0

Total:						0	0	0	0	2	6	4	2	16	17	31	16	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0