Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Plays Florida, playoff odds up 0.1 to 54.4%

5 points 2 0-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs
Washington 2 Chicago 3	+0.2

Wednesday	None

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed																Trash
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	On Ice		Count

123	-163						In		Yes		100																No		76	*
122		54	16		-	9	In		96.6	%	97	3															No		29	*
121		54	17		-	8	In		Yes		98				2												No		55	*
120		53	17		-	9	In		Yes		99				1												No		82	*
119		52	17		-	10	In		98.3		93				5	2											No		120	*
118		53	19		-	7	In		96.6		95	2			2	1											No		176	*
117		52	19		-	8	In		96.1		93	2			5	0											No		257	*
116		51	19		-	9	In		97.1		94	1			4	1											No		375	*
115		50	19		-	10	99.8	%	92.8		92	2			5		0	0	0								No		511	*
114		50	20		-	9	In		92.8		90	2			6	2	0										No		724	*
113		50	21		-	8	99.9		87.2		85	4			8	2	0	0	0								No		969	*
112		49	21		-	9	99.9		79.2		83	7	0		7	2	1	0	0	0							No		1,364	*
111		48	21		-	10	99.6		75.4		78	7	0		10	3	1	1	0	0				0			No		1,566	*
110		48	22		-	9	99.4		65.7		73	10	0		10	3	1	1	0	0	0	0					No		2,145	*
109		48	23		-	8	99.5		55.8		67	14	1	0	11	4	1	1	0	0	0						No		2,797	*
108		47	23		-	9	98.7		46.1		61	16	1		12	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		0		No		3,409	*
107		46	23		-	10	98.9		33.8		53	22	2	0	13	5	3	1	1	0	0	0		0			No		4,117	*
106		46	24		-	9	97.8		23.5		45	24	3	0	13	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0		0		No		5,014	*
105		45	24		-	10	96.6		14.7		38	26	5	0	14	7	5	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	0		No		6,048	*
104		45	25		-	9	95.6		8.1		30	27	7	1	14	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		No		7,162	*
103		44	25		-	10	94.3		3.6		22	27	10	1	14	9	7	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0		No		8,138	*
102		44	26		-	9	92.1		1.2		17	26	12	2	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		9,136	*
101		43	26		-	10	89.5		0.5		12	24	15	2	13	10	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0		No		10,182	*
100		43	27		-	9	86.8		0.1		7	21	17	4	12	11	8	7	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		11,006	*
99		42	27		-	10	83.0		No		5	17	18	6	11	10	9	8	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		11,988	*
98		42	28		-	9	79.0		0.0		3	13	18	7	10	10	10	8	7	5	4	2	2	1	0	0	No		13,125	*
97		41	28		-	10	73.7		No		1	9	16	9	9	10	10	9	8	6	5	3	2	1	1	0	No		13,451	*
96		41	29		-	9	68.9		No		1	6	15	10	8	10	10	9	8	7	6	4	3	2	1	0	No		14,195	*
95		40	29		-	10	63.8		No		0	4	12	12	7	9	10	10	9	8	6	5	4	2	1	0	No		14,363	*
94		40	30		-	9	57.9		No		0	2	10	12	6	8	10	10	9	9	7	6	5	3	2	1	No		14,564	*
93		39	30		-	10	51.6		No		0	1	7	12	5	7	9	10	9	10	8	7	6	4	2	1	No		14,261	*
92		39	31		-	9	45.3		No			1	5	12	4	6	8	9	10	10	9	8	7	6	4	1	No		14,206	*
91		38	31		-	10	39.4		No		0	0	3	11	3	5	7	9	10	10	10	10	9	6	5	2	No		13,582	*
90		38	32		-	9	33.8		No			0	2	10	3	4	7	8	9	10	10	10	10	8	5	3	No		12,922	*
89		37	32		-	10	28.7		No			0	1	8	2	4	6	7	9	10	11	11	10	9	8	4	No		12,061	*
88		37	33		-	9	23.3		No			0	1	7	2	3	5	6	8	10	11	12	12	11	8	5	No		11,226	*
87		36	33		-	10	18.3		No			0	1	6	1	2	4	5	8	9	11	12	13	12	11	6	No		10,144	*
86		36	34		-	9	15.0		No			0	0	5	1	2	3	5	7	8	11	11	13	14	12	9	0.0	%	9,172	*
85		35	34		-	10	11.9		No				0	4	0	1	3	4	6	7	10	12	14	15	14	11	0.0		8,051	*
84		35	35		-	9	9.3		No				0	3	0	1	2	3	5	6	9	11	14	16	16	14	0.2		7,174	*
83		34	35		-	10	6.8		No				0	2	0	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	13	17	18	16	0.6		6,196	*
82		34	36		-	9	4.9		No				0	1	0	1	1	2	3	4	7	9	14	17	21	20	2.2		5,125	*
81		33	36		-	10	3.7		No					1	0	1	1	1	2	4	5	9	12	16	24	24	5.6		4,196	*
80		33	37		-	9	2.8		No					1	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	12	18	24	27	9.7		3,510	*
79		32	37		-	10	2.5		No					1	0	0	1	1	1	2	4	7	10	16	25	32	16.2		2,924	*
78		32	38		-	9	1.3		No					1	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	5	9	16	25	39	27.7		2,325	*
77		31	38		-	10	0.9		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	5	6	14	26	44	36.9		1,750	*
76		31	39		-	9	0.7		No					0	0		0	0	0	1	2	3	7	12	27	47	47.1		1,474	*
75		30	39		-	10	0.3		No								0	0	0	1	1	2	6	13	24	52	58.8		1,113	*
74		30	40		-	9	0.2		No								0	0		1	1	2	5	9	22	60	68.5		802	*
73		29	40		-	10	0.3		No					0				0		1	0	3	4	9	24	60	76.6		599	*
72		29	41		-	9	Out		No										0		1	1	4	5	21	68	81.9		430	*
71		28	41		-	10	Out		No											0		2	2	8	15	72	88.7		335	*
70		27	41		-	11	Out		No													0	2	4	16	76	89.3		225	*
69		27	42		-	10	Out		No														1	4	13	81	95.5		178	*
68		26	42		-	11	Out		No													1	2	4	17	76	98.1		103	*
67		26	43		-	10	Out		No														1	2	7	89	97.5		81	*
66		26	44		-	9	Out		No																13	88	98.2		56	*
65		24	43		-	12	Out		No															5	3	92	Yes		39	*
64		25	45		-	9	Out		No																9	91	Yes		22	*
63		24	45		-	10	Out		No																6	94	Yes		18	*
62		23	45		-	11	Out		No																6	94	Yes		17	*
5	-61						Out		No																	100	Yes		39	*

Total:							54.4	%	4.8	%	9	8	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	2.1	%	301,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	None

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 6 Toronto 4	*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

123	-163						100
122		54	16		-	9	97	3
120	-121						100
119		52	17		-	10	98	2
118		53	19		-	7	97	3
117		52	19		-	8	96	4
116		51	19		-	9	97	3
115		50	19		-	10	93	7
114		50	20		-	9	93	7	0
113		50	21		-	8	87	12	1
112		49	21		-	9	79	20	1	0
111		48	21		-	10	75	22	2	0
110		48	22		-	9	66	28	6	0	0
109		48	23		-	8	56	35	8	1	0
108		47	23		-	9	46	38	14	2	0
107		46	23		-	10	34	40	20	5	1	0
106		46	24		-	9	23	39	26	10	2	0	0
105		45	24		-	10	15	33	31	16	5	1	0
104		45	25		-	9	8	24	32	23	10	2	0	0
103		44	25		-	10	4	15	28	28	17	6	2	0	0
102		44	26		-	9	1	8	20	28	23	13	5	1	0	0	0
101		43	26		-	10	0	3	11	21	27	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
100		43	27		-	9	0	1	5	12	22	25	20	10	4	1	0	0
99		42	27		-	10		0	1	5	13	22	25	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
98		42	28		-	9	0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	12	5	1	0	0	0
97		41	28		-	10				0	1	5	12	19	23	19	13	6	2	0	0
96		41	29		-	9				0	0	1	4	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
95		40	29		-	10					0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	16	10	4	1	0	0
94		40	30		-	9					0	0	0	0	2	5	11	19	22	19	12	6	2	1	0	0
93		39	30		-	10							0	0	0	1	4	9	16	22	20	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
92		39	31		-	9									0	0	1	2	6	12	19	22	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
91		38	31		-	10									0	0	0	0	1	5	10	17	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
90		38	32		-	9											0	0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
89		37	32		-	10												0	0	0	1	2	5	12	18	23	19	12	6	2	1	0	0
88		37	33		-	9													0	0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0	0
87		36	33		-	10																0	0	1	3	9	16	22	22	15	8	3	1	0
86		36	34		-	9																	0	0	1	3	8	14	21	23	18	8	3	1	0	0
85		35	34		-	10																		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	24	18	9	3	0	0
84		35	35		-	9																				0	1	3	7	16	24	24	16	7	2	0
83		34	35		-	10																		0		0	0	1	3	8	17	25	25	16	5	1
82		34	36		-	9																					0	0	1	3	11	21	28	23	12	2
81		33	36		-	10																							0	1	5	13	25	31	19	6
80		33	37		-	9																							0	0	2	7	20	33	28	10
79		32	37		-	10																								0	1	4	14	29	36	16
78		32	38		-	9																									0	1	8	23	40	28
77		31	38		-	10																										0	4	17	42	37
76		31	39		-	9																										0	2	12	39	47
75		30	39		-	10																										0	1	7	33	59
74		30	40		-	9																											0	3	28	68
73		29	40		-	10																											0	2	21	77
72		29	41		-	9																												1	17	82
71		28	41		-	10																													11	89
70		27	41		-	11																												0	10	89
69		27	42		-	10																													4	96
68		26	42		-	11																													2	98
67		26	43		-	10																													2	98
66		26	44		-	9																													2	98
5	-65																																			100

Total:							5	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2