Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 1

Plays Florida, playoff odds down 0.2 to 70.4%

5 points 2 0-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Trash On Ice
Washington 2 Chicago 3	+0.2
Montreal 4 Toronto 6			-0.0

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Trash On Ice
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9			*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed																Trash
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	On Ice		Count

129	-163						In		Yes		100																No		121	*
128		58	14		-	7	In		Yes		97				3												No		38	*
127		58	15		-	6	In		Yes		98				2												No		41	*
126		57	15		-	7	In		Yes		100																No		81	*
125		57	16		-	6	In		99.3	%	96				4												No		134	*
124		56	16		-	7	In		99.0		96	1			2	1											No		191	*
123		55	16		-	8	In		99.4		96	1			2	1											No		321	*
122		54	16		-	9	In		99.1		98	0			2	0	0										No		462	*
121		54	17		-	8	In		99.3		96	0			4		0	0									No		667	*
120		54	18		-	7	In		98.9		96	1			3	1		0									No		963	*
119		53	18		-	8	In		97.6		95	1			4	1	0	0									No		1,360	*
118		53	19		-	7	99.9	%	95.7		92	2			4	1	0			0							No		1,903	*
117		52	19		-	8	99.8		94.2		91	2			4	2	0	0	0		0	0					No		2,660	*
116		51	19		-	9	99.6		91.4		89	3			6	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0				No		3,553	*
115		51	20		-	8	99.7		88.8		88	4	0		5	2	1	0	0	0	0			0			No		4,653	*
114		50	20		-	9	99.2		82.8		84	5	0		6	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			No		6,199	*
113		50	21		-	8	99.1		78.1		81	7	0		7	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	No		7,786	*
112		49	21		-	9	98.9		70.6		77	9	0		7	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		No		9,587	*
111		49	22		-	8	98.5		61.9		73	12	0	0	7	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0			No		11,987	*
110		48	22		-	9	97.9		52.8		68	14	1	0	8	4	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		14,456	*
109		48	23		-	8	97.3		41.8		62	18	1	0	8	4	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	No		17,545	*
108		47	23		-	9	96.4		32.0		56	21	2	0	8	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		20,448	*
107		47	24		-	8	95.7		21.4		49	25	3	0	9	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	No		23,408	*
106		46	24		-	9	94.2		13.6		43	27	4	0	9	5	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		26,843	*
105		46	25		-	8	93.0		7.5		36	30	6	0	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	No		29,956	*
104		45	25		-	9	91.5		3.4		29	31	9	1	9	6	4	3	3	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	No		33,291	*
103		45	26		-	8	90.2		1.5		24	31	12	1	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	No		36,479	*
102		44	26		-	9	87.6		0.5		17	30	15	2	8	6	5	4	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	No		38,538	*
101		44	27		-	8	85.4		0.1		13	28	17	3	8	6	6	5	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	No		40,658	*
100		43	27		-	9	82.9		0.0		9	25	20	4	8	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	0	No		42,597	*
99		43	28		-	8	80.0		No		6	21	21	6	7	6	6	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	No		43,590	*
98		42	28		-	9	76.5		No		4	18	22	8	7	6	6	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	0	No		43,869	*
97		41	28		-	10	73.3		No		3	14	22	10	6	6	7	6	6	6	5	4	3	2	1	0	No		43,533	*
96		41	29		-	9	70.0		No		2	11	21	12	6	6	6	7	6	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	No		42,601	*
95		40	29		-	10	66.1		No		1	8	20	14	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	3	2	1	No		40,925	*
94		40	30		-	9	62.4		No		0	6	17	15	5	5	6	7	7	7	7	5	5	3	2	1	No		39,446	*
93		39	30		-	10	58.0		No		0	4	15	17	4	5	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	4	3	1	No		36,990	*
92		39	31		-	9	53.6		No		0	2	12	18	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	7	6	5	3	2	No		33,670	*
91		38	31		-	10	49.8		No		0	1	10	18	3	4	6	7	8	8	8	8	7	6	4	3	No		30,938	*
90		38	32		-	9	45.4		No		0	1	8	18	3	4	6	7	7	9	8	8	8	7	5	3	No		28,041	*
89		37	32		-	10	41.8		No		0	0	6	18	3	4	5	6	8	8	9	9	8	7	6	4	No		25,059	*
88		37	33		-	9	37.2		No		0	0	4	17	2	3	5	6	7	8	9	9	9	8	7	5	No		21,540	*
87		36	33		-	10	33.3		No			0	3	16	2	3	4	6	7	8	10	10	10	9	8	6	No		18,752	*
86		36	34		-	9	30.3		No			0	2	15	2	3	4	5	7	8	9	10	10	10	9	7	No		15,817	*
85		35	34		-	10	26.8		No			0	1	13	1	2	4	5	6	8	9	10	10	11	10	8	No		12,963	*
84		35	35		-	9	23.6		No			0	1	12	1	2	3	4	6	8	9	10	11	11	12	10	0.0	%	10,936	*
83		34	35		-	10	19.9		No				1	10	1	1	3	4	6	7	9	10	11	12	13	12	0.3		8,989	*
82		34	36		-	9	18.2		No				0	9	1	1	3	4	5	7	8	10	11	12	14	14	0.8		7,093	*
81		34	37		-	8	15.0		No				0	8	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	10	12	14	15	15	2.1		5,593	*
80		33	37		-	9	13.0		No				0	6	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	9	12	14	16	18	4.7		4,368	*
79		32	37		-	10	10.4		No				0	6	0	1	1	2	4	5	7	9	11	14	18	22	9.8		3,502	*
78		32	38		-	9	8.9		No					4	0	1	1	3	3	5	6	9	11	13	20	24	15.0		2,576	*
77		32	39		-	8	7.2		No					3	0	1	1	2	2	4	6	8	10	14	21	27	23.7		1,892	*
76		31	39		-	9	6.1		No					2	0	0	1	2	2	4	7	7	9	16	21	29	34.6		1,444	*
75		30	39		-	10	4.6		No					2	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	9	13	22	33	45.8		1,036	*
74		30	40		-	9	4.5		No					2		1	1	1	2	3	4	7	9	18	20	33	55.5		737	*
73		29	40		-	10	2.9		No					1	0	0		1	2	3	3	5	10	13	21	39	62.5		509	*
72		29	41		-	9	2.7		No					1		1	1	0	1	2	4	5	7	16	20	43	67.6		374	*
71		29	42		-	8	0.8		No					0		0			1	2	1	3	6	14	22	49	77.5		249	*
70		28	42		-	9	1.7		No								1	1	1	1	3	2	10	13	18	51	86.4		176	*
69		28	43		-	8	Out		No										3	1	5	3	10	7	27	45	87.6		105	*
68		27	43		-	9	Out		No											2	2	3	3	8	15	68	93.8		65	*
67		27	44		-	8	Out		No										2				8	8	27	56	96.2		52	*
66		27	45		-	7	Out		No													3	3	10	21	62	Yes		29	*
65		25	44		-	10	Out		No												15		8	15	23	38	92.3		13	*
64		23	43		-	13	11.1		No					11												89	Yes		9	*
63		25	46		-	8	Out		No																14	86	Yes		7	*
62		24	46		-	9	Out		No																50	50	Yes		4	*
61		24	47		-	8	Out		No																25	75	Yes		4	*
5	-60						Out		No																	100	Yes		78	*

Total:							70.4	%	8.4	%	17	14	11	8	6	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	2	0.5	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	None

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9	*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

126	-163						100
125		57	16		-	6	99	1
124		56	16		-	7	99	1
123		55	16		-	8	99	1
122		54	16		-	9	99	1
121		54	17		-	8	99	1
120		54	18		-	7	99	1
119		53	18		-	8	98	2	0
118		53	19		-	7	96	4
117		52	19		-	8	94	6	0
116		51	19		-	9	91	8	0
115		51	20		-	8	89	11	0
114		50	20		-	9	83	16	1	0
113		50	21		-	8	78	20	2	0
112		49	21		-	9	71	25	4	0	0
111		49	22		-	8	62	31	6	1	0
110		48	22		-	9	53	36	10	1	0		0
109		48	23		-	8	42	40	15	3	0	0
108		47	23		-	9	32	41	21	5	1	0
107		47	24		-	8	21	38	27	10	2	0	0
106		46	24		-	9	14	33	31	16	5	1	0	0
105		46	25		-	8	7	24	32	23	10	3	1	0	0
104		45	25		-	9	3	16	28	28	16	6	2	0	0
103		45	26		-	8	1	9	20	28	23	12	4	1	0	0
102		44	26		-	9	0	4	12	23	27	19	10	3	1	0	0
101		44	27		-	8	0	1	6	15	23	25	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
100		43	27		-	9	0	0	2	7	17	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
99		43	28		-	8		0	1	3	8	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
98		42	28		-	9		0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		41	28		-	10			0	0	1	3	7	15	22	22	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
96		41	29		-	9				0	0	1	2	6	14	21	23	17	11	4	1	0	0	0
95		40	29		-	10					0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	5	2	0	0	0
94		40	30		-	9						0	0	0	1	4	10	18	22	20	14	7	3	1	0	0
93		39	30		-	10							0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	22	16	9	3	1	0	0	0
92		39	31		-	9									0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
91		38	31		-	10										0	0	0	2	5	11	18	22	20	13	6	2	1	0	0
90		38	32		-	9										0	0	0	0	1	4	9	16	22	21	16	8	3	1	0	0
89		37	32		-	10												0	0	0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		37	33		-	9												0	0	0	0	1	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
87		36	33		-	10													0	0	0	0	0	2	6	12	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
86		36	34		-	9																0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
85		35	34		-	10																	0	0	0	1	5	11	20	24	20	12	5	1	0
84		35	35		-	9																		0	0	0	2	5	13	21	24	20	11	4	1	0
83		34	35		-	10																				0	0	2	6	14	22	25	19	8	2	0
82		34	36		-	9																					0	1	2	7	16	25	27	16	6	1
81		34	37		-	8																						0	1	3	10	20	29	25	11	2
80		33	37		-	9																							0	1	4	13	27	29	20	5
79		32	37		-	10																								0	2	8	21	32	27	10
78		32	38		-	9																							0	0	1	5	15	30	34	15
77		32	39		-	8																									0	1	10	26	39	24
76		31	39		-	9																								0	0	1	4	19	41	35
75		30	39		-	10																										0	3	14	37	46
74		30	40		-	9																											1	9	34	55
73		29	40		-	10																											1	6	30	62
72		29	41		-	9																												3	30	68
71		29	42		-	8																												1	21	78
70		28	42		-	9																												1	13	86
69		28	43		-	8																												1	11	88
68		27	43		-	9																													6	94
67		27	44		-	8																													4	96
66		27	45		-	7																														100
65		25	44		-	10																													8	92
5	-64																																			100

Total:							8	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0