Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Plays at Boston, playoff odds up 0.2 to 52.1%

2 points 1 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Trash On Ice	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 2 Chicago 3	-0.3

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Trash On Ice	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9	-4.0		-0.9		+1.0		-0.4

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed																Trash
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	On Ice		Count

121	-160						In		Yes		100																No		58	*
120		56	17		-	6	In		Yes		90				10												No		20	*
119		54	16		-	9	In		97.2	%	100																No		36	*
118		54	17		-	8	In		95.0		97	2			2												No		60	*
117		53	17		-	9	In		98.8		96				4												No		82	*
116		53	18		-	8	In		96.2		95	1			4	1											No		130	*
115		52	18		-	9	In		92.9		92	2			6												No		156	*
114		52	19		-	8	In		93.6		86	3			9	1		0									No		266	*
113		51	19		-	9	99.7	%	86.0		84	5			10	0	0		0								No		356	*
112		51	20		-	8	In		82.5		85	7			6	1	0										No		491	*
111		50	20		-	9	99.6		77.5		80	8	0		9	3		0	0								No		698	*
110		50	21		-	8	In		67.4		75	10	0	0	11	2	0	0									No		1,017	*
109		49	21		-	9	99.8		57.2		67	16	0		13	3	1	0	0	0							No		1,274	*
108		49	22		-	8	99.6		45.9		65	16	1	0	11	4	1	0	0	0							No		1,652	*
107		48	22		-	9	99.4		33.8		56	19	2	0	14	5	2	1	0	0	0						No		2,148	*
106		47	22		-	10	99.1		25.9		48	23	4	0	15	6	2	1	1	0	0	0					No		2,748	*
105		47	23		-	9	99.1		15.1		41	26	5	0	16	7	2	2	1	0	0	0		0			No		3,407	*
104		46	23		-	10	97.8		7.8		32	27	6	1	16	9	5	2	1	1	0	0	0				No		4,148	*
103		46	24		-	9	97.3		3.3		25	28	9	1	16	10	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0			No		4,975	*
102		45	24		-	10	96.1		1.1		18	28	12	2	16	11	6	3	2	1	1	0	0	0			No		6,030	*
101		45	25		-	9	94.5		0.3		13	26	14	2	17	11	7	4	3	2	1	0	0	0			No		6,984	*
100		44	25		-	10	93.0		0.1		9	22	17	4	16	12	8	5	3	2	1	0	0	0			No		8,067	*
99		44	26		-	9	90.0		No		6	19	17	5	15	13	9	6	4	3	2	1	0	0			No		9,005	*
98		43	26		-	10	87.5		No		3	15	18	7	15	13	10	7	5	3	2	1	1	0			No		10,063	*
97		43	27		-	9	83.5		No		2	11	18	8	13	13	11	8	6	5	3	2	1	0			No		11,217	*
96		42	27		-	10	79.5		No		1	7	16	10	12	13	10	9	8	5	4	2	1	0			No		12,182	*
95		42	28		-	9	76.0		No		0	5	13	12	11	13	12	10	8	6	5	3	1	0			No		12,941	*
94		41	28		-	10	70.6		No		0	3	11	12	10	12	12	11	9	8	6	4	2	1			No		13,590	*
93		41	29		-	9	65.4		No		0	2	9	13	9	10	11	11	10	9	7	5	3	1			No		14,245	*
92		40	29		-	10	60.6		No		0	1	7	13	7	10	11	12	11	10	8	6	4	2			No		14,397	*
91		40	30		-	9	54.2		No		0	0	4	12	6	9	11	12	12	11	9	7	4	2			No		14,666	*
90		39	30		-	10	48.1		No			0	3	12	4	8	10	11	12	11	11	9	6	3			No		14,233	*
89		39	31		-	9	42.0		No			0	2	10	4	7	9	11	12	13	12	10	8	4			No		14,112	*
88		38	31		-	10	36.1		No			0	1	9	3	6	8	10	12	13	13	12	9	5			No		13,600	*
87		38	32		-	9	30.5		No			0	1	7	2	4	7	9	11	13	14	13	11	7			No		12,921	*
86		37	32		-	10	25.6		No				0	6	2	3	6	8	10	13	15	15	14	8			No		12,146	*
85		37	33		-	9	20.6		No				0	4	1	3	5	7	10	12	14	16	16	11			0.0	%	11,273	*
84		36	33		-	10	17.4		No				0	4	1	2	4	6	9	11	14	18	17	14			0.1		10,072	*
83		36	34		-	9	13.9		No				0	3	1	2	3	5	7	10	14	17	20	18			0.7		9,184	*
82		35	34		-	10	10.3		No				0	2	1	1	2	4	7	9	13	18	21	21			2.3		8,022	*
81		35	35		-	9	8.4		No				0	2	0	1	2	4	6	8	12	18	23	24			4.9		7,049	*
80		34	35		-	10	6.0		No					1	0	1	1	2	4	7	11	17	24	30			10.1		6,107	*
79		34	36		-	9	4.6		No					1	0	0	1	2	4	6	10	16	25	34			17.9		5,172	*
78		33	36		-	10	3.4		No				0	1	0	0	1	2	3	6	8	15	26	39			26.4		4,415	*
77		33	37		-	9	2.3		No					1	0	0	0	1	2	4	8	14	26	43			37.6		3,539	*
76		32	37		-	10	1.4		No					0	0	0	0	1	2	3	6	13	25	50			47.6		2,919	*
75		32	38		-	9	1.4		No					0		0	0	1	1	3	6	11	25	53			60.6		2,305	*
74		31	38		-	10	0.7		No					0			0	1	1	2	4	10	26	56			67.6		1,825	*
73		31	39		-	9	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	1	2	3	10	21	63			77.2		1,440	*
72		30	39		-	10	0.1		No								0		1	1	3	7	20	69			81.8		1,104	*
71		30	40		-	9	0.6		No						0			0	0	1	3	5	17	73			87.6		807	*
70		29	40		-	10	Out		No										0	1	1	4	13	80			89.7		602	*
69		29	41		-	9	Out		No										0		0	4	16	80			94.0		450	*
68		28	41		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	2	14	83			95.9		362	*
67		28	42		-	9	Out		No												0	3	9	87			99.1		230	*
66		27	42		-	10	Out		No											1	1	1	10	88			99.4		157	*
65		27	43		-	9	Out		No												2	1	10	87			Yes		111	*
64		26	43		-	10	Out		No														11	89			98.4		61	*
63		25	43		-	11	Out		No													2	4	94			Yes		49	*
62		26	45		-	8	Out		No														6	94			Yes		36	*
61		24	44		-	11	Out		No															100			Yes		24	*
60		24	45		-	10	Out		No													6		94			Yes		16	*
58	-59						Out		No															100			Yes		16	*
57		24	48		-	7	Out		No												25			75			Yes		4	*
2	-56						Out		No															100			Yes		28	*

Total:							52.1	%	2.2	%	5	6	6	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	9			4.5	%	301,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 2 Chicago 3	*-0.0

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9	+1.1
Philadelphia 6 Toronto 4	*-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

120	-160						100
119		54	16		-	9	97	3
118		54	17		-	8	95	5
117		53	17		-	9	99	1
116		53	18		-	8	96	4
115		52	18		-	9	93	7
114		52	19		-	8	94	6	1
113		51	19		-	9	86	13	1
112		51	20		-	8	82	16	1	0
111		50	20		-	9	78	19	3	0
110		50	21		-	8	67	26	6	0
109		49	21		-	9	57	32	9	1	0
108		49	22		-	8	46	40	12	3	0	0
107		48	22		-	9	34	41	19	5	1	0
106		47	22		-	10	26	38	25	9	1	0	0
105		47	23		-	9	15	33	30	16	5	1	0	0
104		46	23		-	10	8	24	32	24	9	3	1	0
103		46	24		-	9	3	16	29	28	16	6	2	0	0
102		45	24		-	10	1	8	20	28	23	13	5	1	0	0
101		45	25		-	9	0	3	11	21	27	20	11	4	1	0	0
100		44	25		-	10	0	1	5	13	22	25	19	10	4	1	0	0
99		44	26		-	9		0	1	6	13	22	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
98		43	26		-	10		0	0	2	5	13	20	23	19	11	5	2	0	0
97		43	27		-	9			0	0	1	5	12	19	22	20	12	6	2	0	0
96		42	27		-	10				0	0	1	4	9	17	22	20	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
95		42	28		-	9					0	0	1	3	7	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
94		41	28		-	10						0	0	0	2	5	12	19	22	20	12	6	2	1	0	0
93		41	29		-	9							0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
92		40	29		-	10								0		0	1	2	6	13	19	21	18	12	5	2	0	0	0
91		40	30		-	9										0	0	0	1	4	10	18	20	21	14	7	3	1	0	0	0
90		39	30		-	10											0	0	0	1	3	8	14	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		39	31		-	9												0	0	0	0	2	6	12	19	22	19	12	6	2	0	0
88		38	31		-	10														0	0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
87		38	32		-	9															0	0	0	1	3	8	16	22	22	16	8	3	1	0
86		37	32		-	10																0	0	0	1	3	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0
85		37	33		-	9																	0	0	0	1	2	7	15	23	24	17	9	2	0	0
84		36	33		-	10																			0	0	1	3	7	15	24	25	17	7	2	0
83		36	34		-	9																			0	0	0	1	3	8	18	26	24	15	5	1
82		35	34		-	10																					0	0	1	3	10	21	28	24	11	2
81		35	35		-	9																						0	0	1	5	14	27	30	19	5
80		34	35		-	10																								0	2	8	20	32	28	10
79		34	36		-	9																							0	0	1	3	13	30	35	18
78		33	36		-	10																									0	1	9	23	40	26
77		33	37		-	9																									0	1	4	18	39	38
76		32	37		-	10																									0	0	2	12	39	48
75		32	38		-	9																										0	1	7	32	61
74		31	38		-	10																											0	4	28	68
73		31	39		-	9																												2	21	77
72		30	39		-	10																											0	1	17	82
71		30	40		-	9																												1	11	88
70		29	40		-	10																												0	10	90
69		29	41		-	9																												0	6	94
68		28	41		-	10																													4	96
67		28	42		-	9																													1	99
66		27	42		-	10																													1	99
65		27	43		-	9																														100
64		26	43		-	10																													2	98
2	-63																																			100

Total:							2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4