Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 1

Plays at Boston, playoff odds down 0.2 to 34.7%

2 points 1 2-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Tuesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Trash On Ice	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 2 Chicago 3	-0.3

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Trash On Ice	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9	-3.4		-0.8		+0.9		-0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed																Trash
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	On Ice		Count

122	-160						In		Yes		100																No		81	*
121		55	15		-	9	In		Yes		80						20										No		5	*
120		55	16		-	8	In		Yes		83							17									No		6	*
119		55	17		-	7	In		Yes		79				16	5											No		19	*
118		54	17		-	8	In		96.3	%	81				19												No		27	*
117		53	17		-	9	In		98.1		85	2			12			2									No		52	*
116		53	18		-	8	In		98.1		81	2			13	4											No		52	*
115		52	18		-	9	In		90.5		84	2			10	3		1									No		126	*
114		51	18		-	10	98.8	%	86.7		73	2			13	8	2	1	1			1					No		165	*
113		51	19		-	9	In		77.2		70	5			14	5	3	2									No		259	*
112		50	19		-	10	97.8		73.4		62	7			16	8	3	1	1	0	1						No		357	*
111		49	19		-	11	99.0		66.3		61	7	0		17	8	3	2	0		0	0					No		523	*
110		49	20		-	10	97.8		55.1		55	9	1		19	8	4	3	1	0	0		0				No		761	*
109		48	20		-	11	96.6		44.1		50	13	1	0	18	9	4	3	1	1	0	0	0				No		1,067	*
108		48	21		-	10	96.5		33.9		41	15	2		20	11	5	3	1	1	1	0	0				No		1,504	*
107		48	22		-	9	95.1		21.3		35	16	2	0	22	12	5	3	2	1	1	1	0				No		2,038	*
106		47	22		-	10	93.5		13.3		30	19	3	0	20	11	6	4	3	2	1	1	0	0			No		2,796	*
105		47	23		-	9	91.8		8.1		25	19	5	0	19	12	7	5	4	2	1	1	0	0			No		3,644	*
104		46	23		-	10	90.7		3.5		19	20	6	0	20	13	8	5	4	2	1	1	0	0			No		4,835	*
103		46	24		-	9	88.3		1.5		14	20	7	1	18	13	9	6	5	3	2	1	0	0			No		6,230	*
102		45	24		-	10	86.3		0.5		10	18	9	1	18	14	9	7	5	4	2	2	1	0			No		7,893	*
101		45	25		-	9	83.1		0.1		7	16	10	2	17	14	9	7	6	4	3	2	1	0			No		9,711	*
100		44	25		-	10	81.4		0.0		5	14	11	3	17	14	10	8	6	5	4	2	1	1			No		12,011	*
99		44	26		-	9	78.2		No		3	11	12	4	16	14	11	8	7	5	4	3	2	1			No		14,443	*
98		43	26		-	10	74.7		No		2	9	12	5	15	14	10	9	7	6	5	4	2	1			No		17,213	*
97		42	26		-	11	71.1		No		1	7	11	6	13	13	11	10	8	7	6	4	3	1			No		20,190	*
96		42	27		-	10	67.2		No		1	5	10	7	12	12	11	10	9	8	6	5	3	2			No		23,134	*
95		41	27		-	11	63.8		No		0	3	9	7	11	12	11	10	9	8	7	6	4	2			No		26,512	*
94		41	28		-	10	59.4		No		0	2	7	8	10	11	11	10	10	9	8	7	5	3			No		29,545	*
93		41	29		-	9	55.7		No		0	1	6	8	9	11	10	10	10	10	9	8	5	3			No		32,746	*
92		40	29		-	10	51.0		No		0	1	5	8	8	10	10	10	10	10	10	9	7	4			No		35,550	*
91		39	29		-	11	47.3		No		0	0	4	8	7	9	9	10	10	10	10	9	8	5			No		38,160	*
90		39	30		-	10	43.0		No		0	0	2	8	6	8	9	10	10	11	11	10	9	6			No		40,308	*
89		38	30		-	11	39.3		No		0	0	2	7	5	7	8	9	10	11	11	11	10	7			No		41,597	*
88		38	31		-	10	35.0		No			0	1	6	4	7	8	9	10	11	12	12	12	9			No		43,442	*
87		37	31		-	11	30.9		No			0	1	6	4	6	7	8	10	11	12	13	13	11			No		43,561	*
86		37	32		-	10	27.5		No			0	0	5	3	5	6	8	9	11	12	14	14	12			No		43,277	*
85		36	32		-	11	24.1		No			0	0	4	3	4	6	7	9	11	12	14	15	14			0.0	%	42,890	*
84		36	33		-	10	21.2		No			0	0	4	2	4	5	6	8	10	12	15	17	17			0.0		41,534	*
83		35	33		-	11	18.3		No			0	0	3	2	3	4	6	7	10	12	15	18	19			0.2		39,504	*
82		35	34		-	10	15.6		No				0	2	1	3	4	5	7	9	12	16	19	22			0.7		37,203	*
81		34	34		-	11	13.3		No				0	2	1	2	3	5	6	9	12	16	20	24			2.0		34,080	*
80		34	35		-	10	11.6		No				0	2	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	16	21	28			4.7		31,105	*
79		33	35		-	11	9.5		No				0	1	1	1	2	4	5	7	10	15	22	31			9.1		28,240	*
78		33	36		-	10	7.9		No					1	1	1	2	3	5	6	10	15	23	34			15.2		25,063	*
77		32	36		-	11	6.4		No					1	0	1	2	3	4	6	10	14	23	37			23.3		21,971	*
76		32	37		-	10	5.3		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	8	14	22	42			33.1		19,069	*
75		31	37		-	11	4.4		No					1	0	1	1	2	3	5	7	13	24	44			43.1		15,967	*
74		31	38		-	10	3.6		No					0	0	0	1	2	3	4	8	12	22	48			52.8		13,583	*
73		30	38		-	11	2.7		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	6	11	23	52			62.1		10,931	*
72		30	39		-	10	2.0		No					0	0	0	1	1	2	3	5	11	22	55			70.8		8,914	*
71		29	39		-	11	1.6		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	9	21	59			77.4		7,395	*
70		29	40		-	10	1.1		No					0	0	0	0	1	1	2	4	9	20	62			83.2		5,706	*
69		28	40		-	11	1.0		No					0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	8	18	66			87.9		4,629	*
68		28	41		-	10	0.6		No					0	0		0	0	1	2	3	8	18	69			90.8		3,515	*
67		27	41		-	11	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	1	1	2	6	19	71			92.9		2,560	*
66		27	42		-	10	0.2		No					0	0			0	1	1	2	5	17	75			95.0		1,893	*
65		27	43		-	9	0.3		No					0	0			0	0	1	2	5	14	77			96.9		1,431	*
64		26	43		-	10	Out		No										0	1	2	3	14	80			97.9		1,101	*
63		26	44		-	9	0.3		No								0			0	1	3	13	83			98.5		753	*
62		25	44		-	10	Out		No										0	0	1	3	14	81			99.0		492	*
61		25	45		-	9	0.3		No									0		0	1	3	8	87			99.1		335	*
60		24	45		-	10	0.4		No								0				0	2	8	89			99.6		258	*
59		24	46		-	9	Out		No										1			2	6	91			Yes		144	*
58		24	47		-	8	Out		No										1				6	93			99.0		97	*
57		23	47		-	9	Out		No												1	1	2	95			Yes		81	*
56		21	46		-	12	Out		No													2	14	85			Yes		59	*
53	-55						Out		No															100			Yes		61	*
52		21	50		-	8	Out		No														8	92			Yes		12	*
2	-51						Out		No															100			Yes		84	*

Total:							34.7	%	0.5	%	1	2	3	4	5	6	6	7	7	8	9	11	13	17			8.2	%	904,500

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Tuesday	None

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado 3 Anaheim 9	+1.1
Philadelphia 6 Toronto 4	*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

None

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

119	-160						100
118		54	17		-	8	96	4
117		52	16		-	11	98	2
116		53	18		-	8	98		2
115		52	18		-	9	90	10
114		51	18		-	10	87	13
113		51	19		-	9	77	21	2
112		50	19		-	10	73	23	3	0
111		49	19		-	11	66	29	4	0	0
110		49	20		-	10	55	35	8	1	0
109		48	20		-	11	44	39	13	3	1
108		48	21		-	10	34	37	21	6	1	0
107		48	22		-	9	21	40	27	10	2	0
106		47	22		-	10	13	33	31	16	5	1	0	0
105		47	23		-	9	8	25	32	23	9	3	1	0
104		46	23		-	10	3	15	28	28	18	6	2	0	0
103		46	24		-	9	2	8	21	28	23	12	5	1	0
102		45	24		-	10	1	4	13	23	26	20	10	3	1	0	0
101		45	25		-	9	0	1	6	15	24	24	18	8	3	1	0	0	0
100		44	25		-	10	0	0	2	8	16	24	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
99		44	26		-	9		0	0	2	8	17	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
98		43	26		-	10		0	0	1	3	8	15	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
97		42	26		-	11		0		0	1	3	7	15	21	22	17	9	4	1	0	0
96		42	27		-	10				0	0	1	2	6	13	21	22	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
95		41	27		-	11						0	0	2	5	12	19	22	19	12	6	2	0	0	0
94		41	28		-	10							0	0	1	4	10	17	22	21	14	7	3	1	0	0			0
93		41	29		-	9							0	0	0	1	3	8	15	21	21	17	9	4	1	0	0	0
92		40	29		-	10									0	0	1	2	6	13	20	22	18	11	5	2	0	0	0
91		39	29		-	11											0	0	1	5	10	18	22	20	14	6	2	1	0	0	0
90		39	30		-	10											0	0	0	1	3	9	16	22	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
89		38	30		-	11												0	0	0	1	2	7	14	21	22	17	10	4	1	0	0	0
88		38	31		-	10													0	0	0	1	2	6	13	20	23	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
87		37	31		-	11															0	0	0	2	5	12	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0	0
86		37	32		-	10																0	0	0	1	5	11	19	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
85		36	32		-	11																	0	0	0	1	5	11	20	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
84		36	33		-	10																		0	0	0	1	5	12	21	25	20	10	4	1	0
83		35	33		-	11																		0	0	0	0	2	6	14	23	25	19	8	2	0
82		35	34		-	10																			0	0	0	0	2	8	17	26	25	16	5	1
81		34	34		-	11																					0	0	1	3	10	21	28	24	11	2
80		34	35		-	10																						0	0	1	5	14	26	30	19	5
79		33	35		-	11																						0	0	0	2	8	21	32	27	9
78		33	36		-	10																							0	0	1	4	15	31	34	15
77		32	36		-	11																								0	0	2	9	27	39	23
76		32	37		-	10																								0	0	1	5	20	41	33
75		31	37		-	11																									0	0	3	15	39	43
74		31	38		-	10																									0	0	1	10	36	53
73		30	38		-	11																										0	1	6	32	62
72		30	39		-	10																										0	0	3	26	71
71		29	39		-	11																											0	2	21	77
70		29	40		-	10																											0	1	16	83
69		28	40		-	11																											0	0	12	88
68		28	41		-	10																												0	9	91
67		27	41		-	11																												0	7	93
66		27	42		-	10																												0	5	95
65		27	43		-	9																													3	97
64		26	43		-	10																													2	98
63		26	44		-	9																													1	99
62		25	44		-	10																													1	99
61		25	45		-	9																													1	99
60		24	45		-	10																													0	100
59		24	46		-	9																														100
58		24	47		-	8																													1	99
2	-57																																			100

Total:							0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	8