Gravel Playoff Chances 2015
Did not play, playoff odds up 9.2 to 21.9%
2 points 1-4-0
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 11/22 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Coffey 1 Douglas 10 | -22.3 | +22.3 | -0.2 | |||
| Mantha 2 McEwen 6 | -9.4 | +9.4 | -0.3 | |||
| Mantha 3 Vollrath 0 | +4.4 | -4.4 | +0.1 | |||
| Lynch 10 Vollrath 1 | +0.6 | -0.6 | ||||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||||
| Gravel vs Vollrath | +32.8-8.9-21.8 | -32.8+8.9+21.8 | +0.8-0.3-0.5 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||||
| Week of 11/29 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Relegated | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Douglas vs Vollrath | +11.0+11.5-13.1 | -11.0-11.5+13.1 | +0.2+0.3-0.3 | |||
| Guest vs Gravel | -4.5+14.0+19.2 | +4.5-14.0-19.2 | -0.2+0.3+0.8 | |||
| Lynch vs McEwen | +3.6-13.5-17.9 | -3.6+13.5+17.9 | +0.1-0.2-0.3 | |||
| Guest vs Mantha | -0.0*+0.1+0.1 | +0.0*-0.1-0.1 | ||||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Gravel finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | Relegated | Count | ||||
| 6 | 2 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 94.0 | % | 1 | 47 | 46 | 6 | 6.0 | % | 4,960,797 | ||||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 91.1 | 29 | 62 | 9 | 8.9 | 2,279,180 | |||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 35.4 | 35 | 23 | 42 | 64.6 | 33,451,286 | |||||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | - | 2 | Out | 21 | 79 | Yes | 211,087 | |||||||||||
| 2 | -3 | Out | 100 | Yes | 43,969,858 | * | ||||||||||||||
| Total: | 21.9 | % | 0 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 68 | 78.1 | % | 84,872,208 | ||||||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 11/22 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Mantha 2 McEwen 6 | +0.4 | |
| Coffey 1 Douglas 10 | +0.2 | |
| Mantha 3 Vollrath 0 | -0.1 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Gravel vs Vollrath | -0.9+0.4+0.6 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 11/29 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Guest vs Gravel | +0.2-0.2-0.8 | |
| Lynch vs McEwen | -0.1+0.3+0.4 | |
| Douglas vs Vollrath | -0.1-0.2+0.1 | |
What If
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||
| TP | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | |
| 6 | 2 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 1 | 47 | 46 | 6 | |||||
| 5 | 1 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 29 | 62 | 9 | 0 | |||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 35 | 52 | 12 | ||||||
| 0 | - | 0 | - | 2 | 25 | 75 | ||||||||
| 2 | -3 | 100 | ||||||||||||
| Total: | 0 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 57 | |||||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 1:27 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
