Toronto Wolves Playoff Chances Season18 50/50

Plays Nighthawks, playoff odds down 1.4 to 74.3%

6 points 3 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Wolves 9 Stars 1	+9.1		+9.8		+0.4
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	+0.4		+1.1		+0.0
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	*+0.1		-1.3		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	-1.2-1.1-1.4-0.3+0.2+1.3		+0.5-0.7-0.7-1.2-0.7-0.3		-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Wolves finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		First		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Round Bye		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

24	9	0		-	0	In		Yes		97	3			0				11,115
23	8	0		-	1	In		Yes		92	7	0		0				7,736
22	8	1		-	0	In		Yes		81	19	0		1				76,949
	7	0		-	2	In		Yes		76	23	0		1				2,903
21	7	1		-	1	100.0	%	100.0	%	65	32	1	0	2	0			55,278
	6	0		-	3	In		Yes		60	36	2		2				583
20	7	2		-	0	100.0		99.9		42	48	6	0	4	0			280,324
	6	1		-	2	99.9		99.8		36	51	9	0	4	0			17,237
	5	0		-	4	In		Yes		34	57	3		5				61
19	6	2		-	1	99.8		98.8		21	52	17	1	9	0	0		176,144
	5	1		-	3	99.6		98.2		15	53	21	1	10	0			3,106
	4	0		-	5	In		Yes		17	33	17		33				6
18	6	3		-	0	99.2		92.0		7	42	33	3	15	1	0		595,286
	5	2		-	2	98.8		88.4		4	37	36	4	17	1	0		47,874
	4	1		-	4	97.2		80.4		3	31	36	6	21	3			362
17	5	3		-	1	95.9		70.9		1	19	40	10	26	4	0		320,425
	4	2		-	3	94.4		63.8		0	14	40	13	28	5	0		7,334
	3	1		-	5	95.0		55.0			5	45	10	35	5			20
16	5	4		-	0	89.5		37.2		0	6	32	20	31	10	1	0	811,878
	4	3		-	2	86.8		28.8		0	4	29	22	32	12	1	0	71,895
	3	2		-	4	87.5		20.1			2	26	25	34	11	1		618
	2	1		-	6	In		No					100					1
15	4	4		-	1	73.4		8.4			1	16	28	28	22	4	0	365,436
	3	3		-	3	69.4		5.3			0	13	30	26	25	6	0	8,702
	2	2		-	5	65.4		No				8	35	23	31	4		26
14	4	5		-	0	59.0		1.1			0	9	31	19	29	11	1	737,815
	3	4		-	2	55.6		0.4			0	8	32	16	29	14	1	65,755
	2	3		-	4	50.8		0.2			0	6	31	13	28	19	3	634
13	3	5		-	1	44.3		0.0			0	5	33	6	25	25	5	266,397
	2	4		-	3	42.9		No			0	4	34	5	22	28	7	5,964
	1	3		-	5	48.0		No				4	36	8	20	16	16	25
12	3	6		-	0	39.6		No			0	3	35	2	16	32	13	448,367
	2	5		-	2	39.1		No			0	3	35	1	13	32	16	35,615
	1	4		-	4	40.5		No				3	37		9	32	19	284
11	2	6		-	1	37.8		No				2	36	0	5	28	29	121,295
	1	5		-	3	38.8		No				1	37	0	3	26	32	2,112
	0	4		-	5	50.0		No					50				50	2
10	2	7		-	0	37.7		No			0	1	37	0	2	20	40	175,257
	1	6		-	2	37.4		No				1	37		1	17	45	11,021
	0	5		-	4	38.5		No					38			18	44	39
9	1	7		-	1	38.0		No				0	38		0	10	52	31,585
	0	6		-	3	36.7		No					37			7	56	341
8	1	8		-	0	38.3		No				0	38		0	4	57	39,693
	0	7		-	2	36.3		No				0	36			3	61	1,392
7	0	8		-	1	37.3		No				0	37			1	61	3,548
6	0	9		-	0	27.6		No					28			0	72	5,496

Total:						74.3	%	37.7	%	7	14	17	21	16	12	9	5	4,813,936

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Wolves 9 Stars 1	-0.6
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	+0.0
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0

Bottom three teams in the league are eligible for lottery, as well as team that loses in wild card round

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

24	9	0		-	0	97	3
23	8	0		-	1	93	7	0
22	8	1		-	0	83	17	0
	7	0		-	2	79	21	0
21	7	1		-	1	66	32	1	0
	6	0		-	3	61	37	1
20	7	2		-	0	46	47	6	0
	6	1		-	2	41	50	9	0
	5	0		-	4	43	49	8
19	6	2		-	1	23	56	20	1	0
	5	1		-	3	16	56	26	2	0
	4	0		-	5	17	67	17
18	6	3		-	0	8	44	40	8	0	0
	5	2		-	2	6	39	44	11	0
	4	1		-	4	3	32	45	19	1
17	5	3		-	1	1	20	50	26	3	0
	4	2		-	3	0	14	49	33	4	0
	3	1		-	5		5	50	35	10
16	5	4		-	0	0	5	32	46	16	1	0
	4	3		-	2	0	3	26	48	21	2	0
	3	2		-	4		2	18	48	28	4
	2	1		-	6					100
15	4	4		-	1		0	8	40	41	10	0	0
	3	3		-	3		0	5	35	45	14	1
	2	2		-	5				15	54	31
14	4	5		-	0		0	1	16	45	33	6	0
	3	4		-	2		0	0	11	40	39	9	0
	2	3		-	4			0	7	31	49	13	0
13	3	5		-	1			0	2	23	48	25	3
	2	4		-	3				1	18	46	31	4
	1	3		-	5					12	52	28	8
12	3	6		-	0				0	6	34	47	13
	2	5		-	2				0	3	28	50	18
	1	4		-	4					0	21	55	24
11	2	6		-	1					1	14	50	35
	1	5		-	3					0	10	49	40
	0	4		-	5							50	50
10	2	7		-	0					0	4	37	59
	1	6		-	2					0	2	31	67
	0	5		-	4							21	79
9	1	7		-	1						1	20	80
	0	6		-	3						1	18	82
8	1	8		-	0						0	8	92
	0	7		-	2							5	95
7	0	8		-	1							2	98
6	0	9		-	0							1	99

Total:						7	14	17	17	16	13	10	6