Calgary Penguins Playoff Chances Season18

Did not play, playoff odds down 11.5 to 71.2%

6 points 2 1-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	+1.2		+3.3		+0.1
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	-0.5		+7.9		+0.1
Wolves 9 Stars 1	+0.1		-0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	-5.6-5.3-5.2-1.7-1.7+0.9		+0.4+0.0+0.4-0.1-0.0-0.0		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Penguins finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		First		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Round Bye		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

24	9	0		-	0	In		Yes		92	8							4,831
23	8	0		-	1	In		Yes		46	50	3		1				658
22	8	1		-	0	In		Yes		12	62	22		3				6,564
	7	0		-	2	In		Yes		8	57	30	0	5				670
21	7	1		-	1	In		99.1	%	5	45	42	1	7				13,689
	6	0		-	3	In		96.2		3	37	46	3	11				392
20	7	2		-	0	In		92.6		0	14	59	13	14				68,716
	6	1		-	2	100.0	%	88.5		0	9	56	17	17	0			11,327
	5	0		-	4	In		80.6			3	44	29	24				108
19	6	2		-	1	100.0		64.4		0	5	47	24	24	0			116,338
	5	1		-	3	In		54.6			3	41	27	29				4,843
	4	0		-	5	In		32.1				14	46	39				28
18	6	3		-	0	100.0		42.1		0	0	22	39	39	0			391,779
	5	2		-	2	100.0		33.2			0	15	38	47	0			74,114
	4	1		-	4	In		27.1			0	10	36	54				1,182
	3	0		-	6	In		No					14	86				7
17	5	3		-	1	99.9		11.6			0	9	33	58	0			501,360
	4	2		-	3	99.8		7.9			0	6	28	66	0			23,044
	3	1		-	5	In		4.0				2	24	74				150
16	5	4		-	0	99.7		5.0			0	2	26	72	0			1,267,318
	4	3		-	2	99.6		3.2				1	20	79	0			231,754
	3	2		-	4	99.3		2.1				1	16	83	1			3,592
	2	1		-	6	In		No					29	71				7
15	4	4		-	1	98.6		0.4			0	0	12	86	1	0		1,171,373
	3	3		-	3	97.7		0.2				0	9	88	2	0		48,944
	2	2		-	5	95.1		No					8	87	5			285
	1	1		-	7	In		No						100				1
14	4	5		-	0	95.8		0.1				0	7	89	4	0		2,372,377
	3	4		-	2	93.7		0.0				0	5	88	6	0		370,642
	2	3		-	4	89.3		0.0					3	86	11	0		5,211
	1	2		-	6	80.0		No					10	70	20			10
13	3	5		-	1	84.8		0.0				0	3	82	15	0	0	1,497,780
	2	4		-	3	78.3		No					2	76	21	1		50,923
	1	3		-	5	69.1		No					3	66	30	1		230
12	3	6		-	0	70.1		No				0	2	68	28	2	0	2,527,015
	2	5		-	2	60.4		No					2	58	36	3	0	307,978
	1	4		-	4	49.7		No					2	47	45	5	0	3,156
	0	3		-	6	33.3		No						33	67			3
11	2	6		-	1	37.2		No				0	2	35	51	11	0	1,042,667
	1	5		-	3	25.5		No					2	23	55	19	1	25,366
	0	4		-	5	13.7		No					3	11	51	34	1	73
10	2	7		-	0	17.1		No					2	15	54	27	2	1,507,328
	1	6		-	2	9.4		No					2	7	47	39	4	128,226
	0	5		-	4	4.0		No					2	2	36	50	10	667
9	1	7		-	1	3.2		No					2	1	25	55	16	370,364
	0	6		-	3	2.3		No					2	0	13	55	30	4,874
8	1	8		-	0	2.1		No					2		7	53	38	468,425
	0	7		-	2	2.2		No					2		2	39	56	20,766
7	0	8		-	1	2.1		No					2		0	20	77	52,464
6	0	9		-	0	2.0		No					2			6	92	63,789

Total:						71.2	%	3.4	%	0	0	2	9	60	19	8	3	14,763,408

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	-0.1
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

Bottom three teams in the league are eligible for lottery, as well as team that loses in wild card round

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

24	9	0		-	0	94	6
23	8	0		-	1	53	45	2
22	8	1		-	0	35	57	9
	7	0		-	2	26	59	15
21	7	1		-	1	6	53	40	1
	6	0		-	3	4	46	47	4
20	7	2		-	0	2	36	54	7	0
	6	1		-	2	1	27	61	11	0
	5	0		-	4	1	14	66	19
19	6	2		-	1	0	7	58	34	1
	5	1		-	3		4	51	42	3
	4	0		-	5		7	25	61	7
18	6	3		-	0	0	3	39	50	8	0
	5	2		-	2	0	1	32	54	13
	4	1		-	4		1	26	52	21
	3	0		-	6				57	43
17	5	3		-	1		0	12	57	31	0
	4	2		-	3		0	8	51	41	0
	3	1		-	5			4	48	48
16	5	4		-	0		0	5	45	50	0
	4	3		-	2		0	3	37	59	0
	3	2		-	4			2	32	66	0
	2	1		-	6				29	71
15	4	4		-	1		0	0	19	79	1	0
	3	3		-	3			0	14	84	2	0
	2	2		-	5				12	84	4
	1	1		-	7					100
14	4	5		-	0			0	10	85	4	0
	3	4		-	2			0	7	86	6	0
	2	3		-	4			0	5	84	11	0
	1	2		-	6					80	20
13	3	5		-	1			0	2	82	16	0	0
	2	4		-	3				1	75	23	1
	1	3		-	5				0	66	32	1
12	3	6		-	0				0	67	31	2	0
	2	5		-	2				0	56	40	4	0
	1	4		-	4				0	44	49	7	0
	0	3		-	6					33	67
11	2	6		-	1				0	32	55	13	0
	1	5		-	3					19	57	23	1
	0	4		-	5					7	47	41	5
10	2	7		-	0				0	12	54	32	2
	1	6		-	2					5	44	45	6
	0	5		-	4					1	26	59	15
9	1	7		-	1					0	19	59	21
	0	6		-	3						7	52	41
8	1	8		-	0						4	52	44
	0	7		-	2						1	33	67
7	0	8		-	1						0	11	89
6	0	9		-	0							4	96

Total:						0	0	3	12	54	19	8	3