Vancouver Dynamite Playoff Chances Season18 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 2.2 to 43.4%

4 points 2 3-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	+0.5		+0.7
Wolves 9 Stars 1	+0.3				+0.0
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	*-0.1		-0.9		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	-1.4-1.5-1.3+0.4+0.3+1.5		+0.2-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8*-0.0		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Dynamite finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		First		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Round Bye		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

22	9	0		-	0	In		Yes		81	18	0		1				10,773
21	8	0		-	1	In		Yes		65	31	2		3				7,641
20	8	1		-	0	100.0	%	99.9	%	40	47	6	0	6	0			77,217
	7	0		-	2	99.9		99.8		35	48	9	0	8	0			2,760
19	7	1		-	1	99.6		99.1		21	49	15	0	14	0	0		55,495
	6	0		-	3	99.1		97.8		18	46	16	1	18	1			586
18	7	2		-	0	98.6		94.1		6	37	31	2	23	1	0		279,731
	6	1		-	2	97.8		91.4		4	32	33	4	26	2	0		17,282
	5	0		-	4	In		84.8			24	44	3	29				66
17	6	2		-	1	93.2		71.6		1	16	32	7	38	7	0		176,169
	5	1		-	3	90.8		62.1		0	11	28	9	42	9	0		3,141
	4	0		-	5	In		71.4			14	43	14	29				7
16	6	3		-	0	84.1		41.5		0	3	23	14	43	15	1	0	594,574
	5	2		-	2	80.0		32.7		0	2	19	15	44	18	2	0	47,847
	4	1		-	4	75.5		26.1			2	15	15	44	24	1		387
15	5	3		-	1	60.3		7.4			0	8	15	37	33	7	0	320,294
	4	2		-	3	54.8		4.0			0	6	14	34	36	9	0	7,059
	3	1		-	5	37.5		4.2					13	25	38	21	4	24
14	5	4		-	0	41.6		1.5			0	4	14	24	40	17	1	811,532
	4	3		-	2	36.1		0.7			0	3	13	20	41	21	2	71,912
	3	2		-	4	33.1		0.2				3	13	18	42	23	2	652
	2	1		-	6	50.0		No						50	50			2
13	4	4		-	1	21.7		0.0			0	2	13	7	35	36	8	364,312
	3	3		-	3	19.8		0.0				2	13	5	31	40	10	8,691
	2	2		-	5	24.3		No					16	8	19	32	24	37
12	4	5		-	0	16.5		0.0			0	1	13	2	22	44	18	739,610
	3	4		-	2	15.5		No			0	1	13	1	18	45	22	65,745
	2	3		-	4	14.2		No				1	13	0	12	46	28	579
11	3	5		-	1	14.5		No			0	0	14	0	7	40	38	266,463
	2	4		-	3	14.8		No				0	14	0	5	36	44	6,006
	1	3		-	5	9.1		No					9		5	50	36	22
10	3	6		-	0	14.3		No			0	0	14	0	2	29	54	449,363
	2	5		-	2	14.2		No				0	14	0	1	26	58	36,079
	1	4		-	4	16.5		No					16		0	18	65	285
9	2	6		-	1	14.0		No				0	14		0	16	70	121,270
	1	5		-	3	15.4		No				0	15		0	12	72	2,126
	0	4		-	5	Out		No									100	7
8	2	7		-	0	14.4		No				0	14		0	7	78	175,239
	1	6		-	2	13.7		No				0	14			6	80	10,861
	0	5		-	4	13.2		No					13			6	81	53
7	1	7		-	1	14.2		No				0	14			3	83	31,317
	0	6		-	3	16.1		No					16			3	81	322
6	1	8		-	0	14.4		No				0	14			1	85	39,940
	0	7		-	2	14.7		No					15			0	85	1,411
5	0	8		-	1	13.6		No					14			0	86	3,528
4	0	9		-	0	10.6		No					11				89	5,519

Total:						43.4	%	17.9	%	2	5	8	12	17	19	20	18	4,813,936

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	+0.0
Wolves 9 Stars 1	-0.0
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1

Bottom three teams in the league are eligible for lottery, as well as team that loses in wild card round

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

22	9	0		-	0	84	16	0
21	8	0		-	1	66	32	2
20	8	1		-	0	47	47	6	0
	7	0		-	2	42	50	8	0
19	7	1		-	1	23	56	20	1	0
	6	0		-	3	19	54	26	2
18	7	2		-	0	9	46	39	6	0
	6	1		-	2	6	41	44	8	0
	5	0		-	4	3	41	41	15
17	6	2		-	1	1	20	51	26	3	0
	5	1		-	3	0	13	48	33	5	0
	4	0		-	5		14	57	14	14
16	6	3		-	0	0	6	36	44	14	1	0
	5	2		-	2	0	4	29	47	19	2	0
	4	1		-	4		2	25	48	22	4
15	5	3		-	1		0	7	38	43	12	1	0
	4	2		-	3		0	4	30	47	17	1
	3	1		-	5			4	29	42	17	8
14	5	4		-	0		0	1	17	44	31	5	0
	4	3		-	2			1	11	41	37	9	0
	3	2		-	4			0	9	37	40	12	1
	2	1		-	6						100
13	4	4		-	1			0	1	18	47	30	3
	3	3		-	3			0	1	13	45	36	5
	2	2		-	5					14	38	38	11
12	4	5		-	0			0	0	6	35	47	13
	3	4		-	2				0	4	29	50	17
	2	3		-	4					1	24	53	22
11	3	5		-	1				0	0	11	50	39
	2	4		-	3					0	8	47	45
	1	3		-	5						5	64	32
10	3	6		-	0					0	4	38	58
	2	5		-	2					0	2	34	64
	1	4		-	4						1	25	74
9	2	6		-	1						0	19	80
	1	5		-	3						0	17	83
	0	4		-	5								100
8	2	7		-	0						0	10	90
	1	6		-	2						0	7	93
	0	5		-	4							8	92
7	1	7		-	1							3	97
	0	6		-	3							5	95
6	1	8		-	0							1	99
	0	7		-	2							0	100
5	0	8		-	1							0	100
4	0	9		-	0								100

Total:						2	6	10	13	15	17	19	18