Quebec City Crusaders Playoff Chances Season18 50/50

Lost to Silverbacks 3-5, playoff odds down 1.6 to 97.4%

10 points 5 1-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Wolves 9 Stars 1	+0.0		-0.3
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	+0.0		+0.7
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)			-0.8		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	First Round Bye	100.0*	Average seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.0-0.1+0.2		+0.1-1.1-0.8-0.2-0.7+0.0		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Crusaders finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		First		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Round Bye		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

26	8	0		-	0	In		Yes		100								20,487
25	7	0		-	1	In		Yes		100	0			0				13,622
24	7	1		-	0	In		Yes		98	2			0				136,430
	6	0		-	2	In		Yes		97	3			0				4,362
23	6	1		-	1	In		Yes		94	6	0		0				85,711
	5	0		-	3	In		Yes		93	7							713
22	6	2		-	0	100.0	%	Yes		87	13	0		0	0			435,811
	5	1		-	2	In		Yes		83	17	0		0				23,352
	4	0		-	4	In		Yes		82	17			1				89
21	5	2		-	1	100.0		100.0	%	72	27	0	0	0	0			235,625
	4	1		-	3	In		Yes		66	33	1		1				3,550
	3	0		-	5	In		Yes		100								4
20	5	3		-	0	100.0		100.0		55	41	2	0	1	0			794,837
	4	2		-	2	100.0		99.9		48	47	3	0	2	0			52,911
	3	1		-	4	In		Yes		40	54	5		1				330
19	4	3		-	1	99.9		99.4		29	57	11	0	3	0	0		356,298
	3	2		-	3	99.8		99.0		23	60	14	0	3	0			6,402
	2	1		-	5	In		92.3		31	38	31						13
18	4	4		-	0	99.5		95.4		14	56	23	1	5	0	0		901,653
	3	3		-	2	99.3		92.9		10	53	29	2	6	1	0		63,794
	2	2		-	4	99.5		89.5		7	50	34	2	6	0	0		410
	1	1		-	6	In		50.0				100						2
17	3	4		-	1	98.2		77.4		2	33	48	7	8	2	0	0	326,270
	2	3		-	3	97.9		71.5		1	27	53	10	8	2	0		5,627
	1	2		-	5	In		45.5			36	55	9					11
16	3	5		-	0	95.4		43.7		0	17	53	17	8	4	0	0	656,347
	2	4		-	2	94.5		35.6		0	12	54	21	8	5	1	0	43,617
	1	3		-	4	92.6		25.3			8	52	22	10	7	0		297
15	2	5		-	1	90.8		10.0			3	44	38	6	7	2	0	177,331
	1	4		-	3	89.8		6.7			2	42	40	5	7	3	0	2,640
	0	3		-	5	In		33.3				33	33	33				3
14	2	6		-	0	87.1		1.4			1	34	49	3	8	5	1	297,669
	1	5		-	2	86.0		0.6			1	30	52	3	8	6	1	15,839
	0	4		-	4	81.4		No				25	54	2	7	10	2	59
13	1	6		-	1	84.3		0.0			0	21	63	1	5	8	3	54,001
	0	5		-	3	82.9		No				19	63	0	5	7	5	480
12	1	7		-	0	83.8		No			0	14	70	0	3	8	5	77,617
	0	6		-	2	82.7		No			0	10	72	0	2	9	7	2,371
11	0	7		-	1	83.8		No			0	7	77	0	1	6	9	7,086
10	0	8		-	0	71.8		No			0	3	68		0	6	22	10,265

Total:						97.4	%	76.2	%	32	30	21	10	4	2	1	0	4,813,936

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Golden Seals 4 Penguins 3 (ot)	+0.1
Nighthawks 1 Silverbacks 0	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Stars vs Golden Seals	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

Bottom three teams in the league are eligible for lottery, as well as team that loses in wild card round

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8

26	8	0		-	0	100
25	7	0		-	1	100	0
24	7	1		-	0	99	1
	6	0		-	2	98	2
23	6	1		-	1	95	5	0
	5	0		-	3	94	6
22	6	2		-	0	88	12	0
	5	1		-	2	85	15	0
	4	0		-	4	84	16
21	5	2		-	1	72	27	1	0
	4	1		-	3	67	32	1
	3	0		-	5	100
20	5	3		-	0	54	42	4	0
	4	2		-	2	48	47	5	0
	3	1		-	4	37	55	8
19	4	3		-	1	28	57	14	1	0
	3	2		-	3	22	58	18	1
	2	1		-	5	31	38	23	8
18	4	4		-	0	12	50	33	5	0
	3	3		-	2	8	46	39	7	0	0
	2	2		-	4	6	44	40	10	1
	1	1		-	6			50	50
17	3	4		-	1	1	26	50	21	2	0
	2	3		-	3	1	20	51	26	3	0
	1	2		-	5		9	36	55
16	3	5		-	0	0	7	36	43	13	1	0
	2	4		-	2	0	4	31	46	17	1	0
	1	3		-	4		3	23	49	23	2
15	2	5		-	1		0	10	41	40	9	0	0
	1	4		-	3		0	7	36	43	13	1
	0	3		-	5			33	33		33
14	2	6		-	0		0	1	16	44	33	6	0
	1	5		-	2			1	12	41	38	9	0
	0	4		-	4				7	32	46	15
13	1	6		-	1			0	2	20	47	28	3
	0	5		-	3				1	14	47	33	5
12	1	7		-	0				0	5	31	48	16
	0	6		-	2				0	3	26	51	20
11	0	7		-	1					0	10	49	40
10	0	8		-	0					0	2	32	66

Total:						31	27	18	11	7	4	2	1