Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Plays Predators, playoff odds up 9.1 to 19.3%

66 points 29 28-8

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Panthers 2 Stars 4	+3.0		+0.3
Flyers 1 Blues 6	-0.6
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	+0.2		+0.1
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	+1.6+0.0+0.2-1.3-1.0-1.2		+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

94	14	0		-	0	In		No				1	66	29	4										160
93	13	0		-	1	In		No					54	38	8										262
92	13	1		-	0	In		No				0	33	55	10	2									1,190	*
91	12	1		-	1	99.9	%	No				0	18	60	17	5	0								2,885	*
90	12	2		-	0	99.3		No					9	59	21	11	1								7,639	*
89	11	2		-	1	97.8		No				0	3	50	22	22	2	0							14,330	*
88	10	2		-	2	92.1		No					1	37	20	35	8	0							15,177
	11	3		-	0	93.0		No					1	38	20	33	7	0							13,433	*
87	10	3		-	1	83.2		No					0	25	15	43	16	1	0						30,668
	9	2		-	3	81.3		No					0	23	14	44	17	1	0						12,900	*
86	9	3		-	2	65.7		No					0	13	9	44	29	5	0	0					37,557
	10	4		-	0	67.8		No					0	14	9	45	27	5	0						23,689
	8	2		-	4	63.7		No					0	12	8	44	30	6	0						6,816	*
85	9	4		-	1	46.4		No					0	6	4	36	40	12	1	0					60,637	*
	8	3		-	3	44.8		No						6	4	35	42	12	1	0					27,811
84	8	4		-	2	26.6		No						2	1	23	46	24	4	0					64,069
	9	5		-	0	28.6		No						2	2	25	45	23	3	0					36,001
	7	3		-	4	24.9		No						2	1	22	45	25	4	0					14,181	*
83	8	5		-	1	13.4		No						1	0	12	40	36	10	1					79,589
	7	4		-	3	12.0		No						1	0	11	40	37	11	1					46,048	*
82	7	5		-	2	5.0		No						0	0	5	28	43	21	3					77,517
	8	6		-	0	5.6		No						0	0	5	30	43	20	2					40,917
	6	4		-	4	4.4		No						0	0	4	27	44	21	3					19,046	*
81	7	6		-	1	1.6		No						0	0	2	17	42	33	7	0				79,778
	6	5		-	3	1.5		No						0	0	1	16	41	34	7	0				43,695
	5	4		-	5	1.2		No								1	15	41	35	8	0				5,343	*
80	6	6		-	2	0.4		No								0	8	33	43	16	0				68,280
	7	7		-	0	0.5		No						0		0	8	34	43	15	0				35,412
	5	5		-	4	0.3		No								0	7	32	44	16	0				17,180	*
79	6	7		-	1	0.1		No								0	3	22	47	27	0				60,367
	5	6		-	3	0.0		No								0	3	21	48	28	0				37,298	*
78	5	7		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	12	44	42	1				44,171
	6	8		-	0	0.0		No								0	1	13	45	40	1				23,606
	4	6		-	4	0.0		No								0	1	11	44	43	1				10,714	*
77	5	8		-	1	0.0		No								0	0	6	36	55	2				34,147
	4	7		-	3	Out		No									0	6	35	56	3				20,076	*
76	4	8		-	2	Out		No									0	2	25	67	5				20,948
	5	9		-	0	Out		No									0	2	26	67	5				16,468	*
75	4	9		-	1	Out		No									0	1	16	73	9				14,460
	3	8		-	3	Out		No										1	16	73	11				7,300	*
74	3	9		-	2	Out		No										0	9	75	16				7,051
	4	10		-	0	Out		No										0	10	75	15				5,795	*
73	3	10		-	1	Out		No										0	4	71	25				6,337	*
72	2	10		-	2	Out		No											2	64	34				3,081	*
71	2	11		-	1	Out		No											1	52	47				1,177	*
70	2	12		-	0	Out		No												45	55				456	*
69	1	12		-	1	Out		No												29	71				132	*
68	1	13		-	0	Out		No												18	82				45	*
67	0	13		-	1	Out		No													100				2
66	0	14		-	0	Out		No												9	91				99

Total:						19.3	%	No				0	0	4	2	12	20	23	21	15	1				1,195,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Panthers 2 Stars 4	-0.7
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	-0.1
Flyers 1 Blues 6	-0.0
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Blue Jackets	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

94	14	0		-	0								1	2	64	12	17	4
93	13	0		-	1										54	6	32	6	1
92	13	1		-	0								0	0	33	6	49	6	4	2
91	12	1		-	1								0		18	4	56	9	8	4	1	0
90	12	2		-	0										9	2	58	7	13	9	2	1
89	11	2		-	1								0		3	0	50	4	18	15	8	2	0	0
88	10	2		-	2										1	0	36	2	19	16	19	6	1	0
	11	3		-	0										1	0	39	2	18	15	18	6	1	0	0
87	10	3		-	1										0	0	25	0	14	11	32	11	5	1	0
	9	2		-	3										0	0	23	0	14	11	33	12	5	2	0	0
86	9	3		-	2										0	0	13	0	9	5	39	13	13	6	1	0	0
	10	4		-	0										0	0	14	0	9	5	39	13	12	6	1	0
	8	2		-	4										0		12	0	8	4	40	13	14	7	2	0
85	9	4		-	1										0		6		4	1	35	10	19	16	7	1	0	0
	8	3		-	3												6		4	1	34	10	19	17	7	1	0	0
84	8	4		-	2												2		1	0	23	5	17	26	19	6	1	0
	9	5		-	0												2		2	0	24	5	17	26	17	5	1	0
	7	3		-	4												2		1	0	22	4	16	26	20	7	1	0
83	8	5		-	1												1		0	0	12	1	9	24	29	17	5	1	0
	7	4		-	3												1		0	0	11	1	8	23	30	18	6	1	0
82	7	5		-	2												0		0	0	5	0	3	14	29	30	15	4	0	0
	8	6		-	0												0		0		5	0	3	15	30	29	14	3	0	0
	6	4		-	4												0		0		4	0	2	12	28	31	17	4	0	0
81	7	6		-	1												0		0		2	0	1	5	19	32	28	11	2	0	0
	6	5		-	3												0		0		1	0	1	4	18	32	29	13	2	0
	5	4		-	5																1	0	0	4	16	31	30	15	3	0
80	6	6		-	2																0	0	0	1	7	23	34	25	8	1	0
	7	7		-	0												0				0		0	1	8	24	34	24	7	1	0
	5	5		-	4																0		0	1	6	22	34	27	9	1	0
79	6	7		-	1																0		0	0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0
	5	6		-	3																0		0	0	2	10	27	35	20	4	0
78	5	7		-	2																0			0	0	4	16	34	33	12	1	0
	6	8		-	0																0			0	0	4	18	35	31	11	1	0
	4	6		-	4																0				0	3	14	33	35	13	2	0
77	5	8		-	1																0				0	1	7	25	39	24	4	0
	4	7		-	3																				0	1	6	24	39	26	5	0
76	4	8		-	2																					0	2	13	34	38	12	1	0
	5	9		-	0																					0	2	13	36	36	11	1	0
75	4	9		-	1																					0	0	5	24	44	23	4	0
	3	8		-	3																						0	5	22	43	25	4	0
74	3	9		-	2																						0	1	11	39	37	10	1
	4	10		-	0																						0	1	14	39	36	9	1
73	3	10		-	1																						0	0	5	27	45	20	3	0
72	2	10		-	2																							0	1	15	43	32	7	1
71	2	11		-	1																								1	7	34	40	16	2
70	2	12		-	0																								0	3	24	44	24	4
69	1	12		-	1																									2	8	39	37	13
68	1	13		-	0																										11	29	40	20
67	0	13		-	1																												50	50
66	0	14		-	0																											15	43	41

Total:													0	0	0	0	4	0	2	1	11	3	5	9	12	13	13	11	8	5	2	0	0	0