Buffalo Sabres Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Plays Penguins, playoff odds up 6.9 to 65.7%

69 points 31 24-7

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	-2.1		-0.1
Bruins 3 Flames 4	+1.6		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Sabres	-10.6-2.6-2.7+7.3+7.0+9.1		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4
Devils vs Blue Jackets	+1.0+0.2+0.2-1.1-0.9-0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sabres finish out the regular season. Explain

										100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

105	18	0		-	0	In		0.9	%	38	34	26	1	1												108
104	17	0		-	1	In		No		20	25	45	5	5												20
103	17	1		-	0	In		No		7	24	41	12	14	2											115	*
102	16	1		-	1	In		No		4	16	30	27	20	2	2										318	*
101	15	1		-	2	In		No		0	11	22	28	30	3	6										996	*
100	15	2		-	1	In		No		0	7	9	31	34	8	11										2,185	*
99	14	2		-	2	In		No			3	4	25	33	15	20										4,967	*
98	14	3		-	1	In		No		0	1	1	17	26	23	31	0									9,406	*
97	13	3		-	2	In		No			0	0	10	16	28	45	0									17,391	*
96	13	4		-	1	100.0	%	No			0	0	5	8	26	59	1	0								28,110	*
95	12	4		-	2	100.0		No			0	0	2	4	22	69	3	0								24,818
	13	5		-	0	In		No			0	0	2	4	22	69	3									18,407	*
94	12	5		-	1	100.0		No					1	2	16	76	6	0								30,871
	11	4		-	3	99.9		No					1	1	15	77	7	0								28,622	*
93	11	5		-	2	99.8		No					0	0	10	78	12	0	0							46,253	*
	10	4		-	4	99.7		No					0	0	10	77	12	0								32,240	*
92	11	6		-	1	99.1		No					0	0	6	73	20	1	0							46,830
	10	5		-	3	98.7		No					0	0	5	72	22	1	0							47,986	*
91	10	6		-	2	96.4		No					0	0	3	63	31	3	0							62,407
	9	5		-	4	95.7		No					0	0	2	60	33	4	0							24,456
	11	7		-	0	96.8		No					0	0	3	63	31	3	0							23,673	*
90	10	7		-	1	91.0		No					0	0	1	49	41	8	1	0						54,925
	9	6		-	3	89.2		No					0	0	1	46	42	10	1	0						61,742	*
89	9	7		-	2	78.7		No					0		0	32	47	19	3	0						66,779
	8	6		-	4	76.6		No							0	30	47	20	3	0	0					27,770
	10	8		-	0	80.2		No							0	34	46	17	2	0						24,965	*
88	9	8		-	1	63.7		No							0	19	45	29	7	0	0					52,229
	8	7		-	3	59.7		No							0	17	43	31	8	1	0					60,287	*
87	8	8		-	2	42.3		No							0	9	34	39	16	2	0					57,102
	7	7		-	4	38.1		No							0	7	31	40	18	3	0					24,073
	9	9		-	0	44.2		No							0	10	34	39	15	2	0					21,257	*
86	8	9		-	1	25.3		No							0	3	22	41	27	6	0					38,941
	7	8		-	3	21.8		No								3	19	40	30	8	0	0				46,019	*
85	7	9		-	2	10.9		No							0	1	10	33	39	16	1	0				38,227
	6	8		-	4	10.8		No								1	10	33	39	16	1	0				29,966	*
84	7	10		-	1	4.3		No							0	0	4	23	42	27	4	0				23,799
	6	9		-	3	3.4		No								0	3	20	41	31	5	0				26,804	*
83	6	10		-	2	0.9		No								0	1	11	36	42	10	0	0			36,013	*
82	6	11		-	1	0.2		No									0	4	24	49	21	2	0			23,398	*
81	5	11		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	1	14	46	34	5	0			14,519	*
80	5	12		-	1	0.0		No									0	0	6	37	45	12	0	0		8,283	*
79	4	12		-	2	Out		No										0	2	25	52	20	1			4,570	*
78	4	13		-	1	Out		No											0	14	48	33	4			2,217	*
77	3	13		-	2	Out		No												7	42	42	8	0		1,087	*
76	3	14		-	1	Out		No												2	26	52	18	1		447	*
75	2	14		-	2	Out		No												1	13	45	37	4		161	*
74	2	15		-	1	Out		No													17	44	23	15		52	*
73	2	16		-	0	Out		No													4	30	56	11		27	*
72	1	16		-	1	Out		No															33	67		3
69	0	18		-	0	Out		No														2	17	43	37	99

Total:						65.7	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	1	4	36	24	15	10	6	2	0	0	0	0	1,195,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	+0.1
Bruins 3 Flames 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Senators vs Sabres	+0.8+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.5-0.7
Devils vs Blue Jackets	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

105	18	0		-	0	1	37	27	7	17	9	1		1
104	17	0		-	1		20	20	5	25	20	5		5
103	17	1		-	0		7	13	11	14	27	12		14		2
102	16	1		-	1		4	6	10	10	20	26	1	20		2		2
101	15	1		-	2		0	3	8	4	18	27	1	30		3		6
100	15	2		-	1		0	2	5	1	9	28	3	34	0	8		11
99	14	2		-	2			0	3	0	3	21	5	32	0	15		20
98	14	3		-	1		0	0	1		1	11	6	25	1	23		31	0	0
97	13	3		-	2			0	0		0	5	5	15	2	28	0	45	0	0
96	13	4		-	1				0		0	2	3	7	1	26	0	59	0	1		0
95	12	4		-	2				0		0	0	2	3	1	22	0	69	1	3		0
	13	5		-	0				0		0	0	2	3	1	22	0	68	1	3
94	12	5		-	1							0	1	1	1	16	0	74	2	6		0
	11	4		-	3							0	1	1	1	14	0	74	2	7		0
93	11	5		-	2							0	0	0	0	9	1	72	5	12		0	0
	10	4		-	4							0	0	0	0	9	1	72	5	12	0	0
92	11	6		-	1							0	0	0	0	5	1	64	10	20	0	1	0
	10	5		-	3							0	0	0	0	4	1	61	11	22	0	1	0
91	10	6		-	2								0	0	0	2	1	47	15	31	0	3	0
	9	5		-	4								0	0	0	2	1	44	17	33	0	4	0
	11	7		-	0								0	0	0	2	1	49	14	31	0	3	0
90	10	7		-	1								0		0	1	0	29	19	41	1	9	1	0
	9	6		-	3								0	0	0	1	0	27	19	41	1	10	1	0
89	9	7		-	2								0			0	0	14	18	45	2	19	3	0
	8	6		-	4											0	0	12	17	44	3	20	3	0	0
	10	8		-	0											0	0	16	18	44	2	17	2	0
88	9	8		-	1											0	0	6	13	39	6	29	7	1	0
	8	7		-	3											0	0	4	13	37	6	31	8	1	0
87	8	8		-	2											0	0	1	7	24	10	38	17	3	0	0
	7	7		-	4												0	1	6	21	10	39	20	4	0	0
	9	9		-	0												0	2	9	26	9	38	14	2	0
86	8	9		-	1												0	0	3	11	11	36	29	8	1	0
	7	8		-	3													0	3	9	10	34	32	11	2	0	0
85	7	9		-	2												0	0	1	3	7	24	36	22	6	1	0	0
	6	8		-	4													0	1	3	7	23	36	22	7	1	0
84	7	10		-	1												0	0	0	1	4	12	29	32	17	5	1	0	0
	6	9		-	3														0	0	3	9	27	33	20	6	1	0	0
83	6	10		-	2														0	0	1	3	14	30	29	17	5	1	0
82	6	11		-	1															0	0	0	4	16	29	29	16	4	1	0
81	5	11		-	2														0		0	0	1	6	17	30	29	14	3	0
80	5	12		-	1																0	0	0	1	6	20	32	27	11	2	0
79	4	12		-	2																			0	2	9	25	35	23	6	0
78	4	13		-	1																				0	2	13	31	35	16	2	0
77	3	13		-	2																					0	5	21	41	27	6	1
76	3	14		-	1																						1	9	31	42	16	2
75	2	14		-	2																						1	1	16	42	32	7	1
74	2	15		-	1																							2	21	37	21	19
73	2	16		-	0																									41	37	22
72	1	16		-	1																										33	67
69	0	18		-	0																										8	26	46	19

Total:						0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	27	8	21	3	14	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0