Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2014-2015 50/50

Plays Rangers, playoff odds down 28.4 to 44%

73 points 32 26-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	+6.2		+0.2
Bruins 3 Flames 4	+1.5
Flyers 1 Blues 6	*+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Senators vs Sabres	+0.4-2.5-2.0-1.8-1.6+0.9		+0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Devils vs Blue Jackets	+1.4+0.2+0.1-0.7-1.4-1.1		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

99	13	0		-	0	In		No		0	2	8	40	12	38										248
98	12	0		-	1	In		No			1	2	30	16	51										426
97	12	1		-	0	In		No			0	2	19	16	63	1									2,016	*
96	11	1		-	1	In		No			0	1	8	16	74	2									4,686	*
95	11	2		-	0	99.9	%	No				0	4	13	79	4	0								6,520
	10	1		-	2	99.8		No				0	3	13	78	5	0								6,141	*
94	10	2		-	1	99.6		No				0	1	10	78	10	0								17,363
	9	1		-	3	99.6		No				0	1	10	76	12	0								4,711	*
93	9	2		-	2	98.6		No				0	0	6	72	21	1	0							21,452
	10	3		-	0	98.7		No				0	0	6	73	19	1	0							20,769	*
92	9	3		-	1	96.2		No				0	0	3	62	31	4	0							44,009
	8	2		-	3	95.2		No					0	3	59	33	5	0							16,526	*
91	8	3		-	2	89.6		No					0	2	45	43	10	0	0						48,595
	9	4		-	0	91.4		No					0	2	49	41	8	0	0						34,242
	7	2		-	4	88.2		No						2	43	44	11	1							7,950	*
90	8	4		-	1	80.7		No					0	1	32	48	18	2	0						74,855
	7	3		-	3	77.6		No						1	29	48	20	2	0						34,189	*
89	7	4		-	2	63.6		No						0	17	46	31	5	0						73,143	*
	8	5		-	0	67.3		No				0		0	20	47	28	5	0	0					47,051
	6	3		-	4	61.1		No						0	16	45	33	6	0	0					13,438
88	7	5		-	1	47.3		No					0	0	9	38	40	12	1	0					90,366
	6	4		-	3	44.5		No						0	8	36	41	13	1	0					41,700
	5	3		-	5	41.5		No						0	8	34	43	14	2						4,048	*
87	6	5		-	2	27.9		No						0	3	24	45	23	4	0					77,559
	7	6		-	0	31.0		No						0	4	27	44	22	4	0					46,694
	5	4		-	4	24.7		No						0	2	22	45	25	5	0					15,714	*
86	6	6		-	1	15.4		No						0	1	14	40	34	10	0	0				79,700
	5	5		-	3	13.4		No						0	1	12	40	35	10	1					37,584
	4	4		-	5	12.6		No							1	12	40	36	11	1					3,875	*
85	5	6		-	2	6.1		No						0	0	6	29	42	20	2	0				58,297
	6	7		-	0	7.1		No						0	0	7	31	42	19	2	0				35,389
	4	5		-	4	4.9		No							0	5	29	43	21	2	0				12,061	*
84	5	7		-	1	2.1		No						0	0	2	18	41	32	6	0				51,462
	4	6		-	3	1.7		No						0	0	2	17	42	33	6	0				26,162	*
83	4	7		-	2	0.5		No							0	1	8	33	44	14	1				31,605
	5	8		-	0	0.7		No							0	1	9	35	42	13	1				20,086
	3	6		-	4	0.3		No								0	7	33	45	14	0				6,003	*
82	4	8		-	1	0.1		No								0	3	22	48	24	2	0			24,733
	3	7		-	3	0.1		No								0	3	21	47	27	2	0			11,167	*
81	3	8		-	2	0.0		No								0	1	11	43	39	6	0			11,785
	4	9		-	0	0.0		No								0	1	12	44	38	6	0			10,344	*
80	3	9		-	1	Out		No									0	5	34	48	13	0			8,419
	2	8		-	3	Out		No									0	5	33	47	14	1			3,086	*
79	2	9		-	2	Out		No									0	2	22	52	23	2	0		5,860	*
78	2	10		-	1	Out		No										0	10	48	37	5			2,393	*
77	2	11		-	0	Out		No											5	37	46	12	0		1,022	*
76	1	11		-	1	Out		No										0	2	20	55	19	2		298	*
75	1	12		-	0	Out		No												21	47	30	2		81	*
74	0	12		-	1	Out		No													23	54	23		13
73	0	13		-	0	Out		No												3	28	37	30	3	104

Total:						44.0	%	No		0	0	0	0	1	18	24	24	17	10	4	1	0	0	0	1,195,940

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	-0.4
Bruins 3 Flames 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils vs Blue Jackets	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Senators vs Sabres	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

99	13	0		-	0				0		2	5	2	39	1	12		38
98	12	0		-	1						1	1	1	27	3	16		51
97	12	1		-	0						0	1	1	17	2	16		62	0	1
96	11	1		-	1						0	0	1	6	2	16		73	1	2
95	11	2		-	0							0	0	2	1	13	0	77	2	4		0
	10	1		-	2							0	0	2	1	13	0	76	2	5		0
94	10	2		-	1							0	0	0	1	9	0	74	4	10		0
	9	1		-	3							0	0	1	1	10	0	72	5	12		0
93	9	2		-	2								0	0	0	5	0	63	9	21	0	1	0
	10	3		-	0								0	0	0	6	0	64	9	19		1	0
92	9	3		-	1								0	0	0	3	1	49	13	31	0	4	0
	8	2		-	3									0	0	3	1	45	14	33	0	5	0
91	8	3		-	2										0	1	1	29	16	42	0	10	0	0
	9	4		-	0										0	1	1	33	16	40	0	8	0	0
	7	2		-	4											1	0	27	15	43	0	11	1
90	8	4		-	1										0	1	0	16	16	47	1	18	2	0
	7	3		-	3											0	0	14	15	47	1	20	2	0
89	7	4		-	2											0	0	6	12	43	3	30	6	0	0
	8	5		-	0								0			0	0	7	13	44	3	28	5	0	0
	6	3		-	4											0	0	5	11	42	3	33	6	0	0
88	7	5		-	1										0	0	0	2	7	31	7	39	12	1	0
	6	4		-	3											0	0	1	7	29	7	41	13	2	0
	5	3		-	5											0	0	1	6	26	7	42	15	2	0
87	6	5		-	2											0	0	0	3	15	9	42	24	5	0	0	0
	7	6		-	0											0	0	0	4	18	9	41	23	5	0	0
	5	4		-	4												0	0	2	13	9	42	27	6	0	0
86	6	6		-	1												0	0	1	6	8	34	35	14	2	0	0
	5	5		-	3												0	0	1	5	8	33	36	15	3	0	0
	4	4		-	5													0	1	5	7	32	35	16	3	0	0
85	5	6		-	2												0	0	0	1	5	18	35	28	10	2	0	0
	6	7		-	0												0	0	0	1	5	20	36	26	9	2	0	0
	4	5		-	4													0	0	1	4	17	35	29	12	3	0	0
84	5	7		-	1												0		0	0	2	7	24	33	23	9	2	0	0
	4	6		-	3												0		0	0	2	6	23	33	24	10	2	0	0
83	4	7		-	2														0	0	1	2	10	25	31	22	9	2	0
	5	8		-	0														0	0	1	2	11	26	31	20	8	1	0
	3	6		-	4															0	0	1	8	22	31	24	10	2	0	0
82	4	8		-	1															0	0	0	3	12	26	31	20	7	1	0
	3	7		-	3																0	0	2	10	24	31	24	8	1	0
81	3	8		-	2																0	0	0	3	12	27	32	20	5	0	0
	4	9		-	0																0	0	1	3	13	28	31	18	5	0	0
80	3	9		-	1																		0	1	4	15	32	32	15	2	0
	2	8		-	3																			0	4	15	31	32	16	3	0
79	2	9		-	2																			0	1	6	19	36	29	8	1	0
78	2	10		-	1																				0	1	8	28	40	20	3	0
77	2	11		-	0																					0	2	17	39	32	9	1
76	1	11		-	1																						0	6	26	49	17	2
75	1	12		-	0																							4	22	46	23	5
74	0	12		-	1																									31	46	15	8
73	0	13		-	0																								2	24	35	31	9

Total:									0		0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12	6	21	4	21	14	8	5	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0