Vancouver Canucks Playoff Chances 2014-2015

Plays Oilers, playoff odds down 2.2 to 10.7%

62 points 28 26-6

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	-6.2		-0.3
Flyers 1 Blues 6	-0.8
Panthers 2 Stars 4	-0.3		-0.1
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	+0.5-0.0-0.1-0.9-0.9-1.0		+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Canucks finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

96	17	0		-	0	In		No		0	1	46	46		7	0									300
95	16	0		-	1	In		No				30	35		35										23
94	16	1		-	0	In		No				15	41	7	36	1									92	*
93	15	1		-	1	In		No				7	31	7	50	6									321	*
92	14	1		-	2	99.9	%	No				3	19	9	59	10	0								1,111	*
91	14	2		-	1	99.9		No				1	9	6	63	21	0								2,867	*
90	13	2		-	2	99.2		No				0	4	5	59	31	1								7,349	*
89	13	3		-	1	97.3		No				0	1	3	49	45	3	0							15,598	*
88	12	3		-	2	93.1		No				0	0	1	35	56	7	0							30,703	*
87	12	4		-	1	83.6		No				0	0	0	22	61	15	1	0						55,142	*
86	11	4		-	2	68.8		No					0	0	12	57	28	3	0	0					90,808	*
85	11	5		-	1	53.0		No						0	6	47	39	8	1	0					65,037
	10	4		-	3	48.3		No						0	5	43	42	9	1	0					71,368	*
84	10	5		-	2	33.6		No						0	2	31	47	17	2	0					143,802	*
	9	4		-	4	29.3		No							2	28	47	21	3	0					50,263	*
83	10	6		-	1	18.4		No							1	18	46	30	6	0					139,754	*
	9	5		-	3	16.8		No						0	0	16	45	31	7	0					111,619
82	9	6		-	2	8.2		No						0	0	8	37	40	14	1					172,120
	8	5		-	4	7.1		No							0	7	35	41	16	1					75,002
	10	7		-	0	9.0		No							0	9	38	39	14	1					60,521	*
81	8	6		-	3	2.9		No							0	3	24	44	26	4	0				154,980
	9	7		-	1	3.2		No							0	3	25	43	25	3	0				191,044	*
80	8	7		-	2	1.0		No							0	1	13	39	38	9	0				206,215
	7	6		-	4	0.8		No							0	1	12	38	39	10	0				92,306
	9	8		-	0	1.1		No							0	1	14	40	37	8	0				72,271	*
79	7	7		-	3	0.2		No								0	6	29	47	18	0				163,658
	8	8		-	1	0.2		No								0	6	30	47	18	0				201,291	*
78	7	8		-	2	0.0		No								0	2	19	49	30	0				189,781
	6	7		-	4	0.0		No								0	2	17	48	32	0				84,299
	8	9		-	0	0.1		No								0	2	19	49	30	0				66,938	*
77	6	8		-	3	0.0		No								0	1	10	43	46	1				130,792
	7	9		-	1	0.0		No								0	1	10	44	45	1				162,191	*
76	6	9		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	4	34	60	2				134,433
	5	8		-	4	Out		No									0	4	33	60	2				105,510	*
75	6	10		-	1	Out		No									0	2	24	71	3				83,568
	5	9		-	3	Out		No									0	1	23	72	4				96,368	*
74	5	10		-	2	Out		No									0	1	14	78	7				73,300
	4	9		-	4	Out		No									0	0	14	78	7				55,081	*
73	5	11		-	1	Out		No									0	0	8	80	13				82,904	*
72	4	11		-	2	Out		No										0	4	76	20				51,707	*
71	4	12		-	1	Out		No										0	1	68	30				28,264	*
70	3	12		-	2	Out		No											1	59	41				15,032	*
69	3	13		-	1	Out		No											0	48	51				6,797	*
68	2	13		-	2	Out		No											0	37	63				3,093	*
67	2	14		-	1	Out		No												28	72				1,118	*
66	1	14		-	2	Out		No												18	82				407	*
65	1	15		-	1	Out		No												11	89				106	*
64	1	16		-	0	Out		No												17	83				30	*
63	0	16		-	1	Out		No													100				3
62	0	17		-	0	Out		No												4	96				293

Total:						10.7	%	No		0	0	0	0	0	2	9	16	21	26	24	2				3,547,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	+0.7
Panthers 2 Stars 4	+0.1
Bruins 3 Flames 4	-0.1
Flyers 1 Blues 6	-0.0
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

96	17	0		-	0				0		1	1	45	0	45			6	0	0
95	16	0		-	1								30		35			30	4
94	16	1		-	0								15		41	2	4	25	11	1
93	15	1		-	1								7		31		7	35	14	6
92	14	1		-	2								3		19	0	9	36	23	10	0	0
91	14	2		-	1								1		9	0	6	30	33	19	2	0
90	13	2		-	2								0		4	0	5	19	41	26	6	1	0
89	13	3		-	1								0		1	0	3	9	40	30	15	3	0	0	0
88	12	3		-	2								0		0		1	3	32	27	29	6	1	0	0
87	12	4		-	1								0		0		0	1	21	18	43	11	4	1	0
86	11	4		-	2										0		0	0	12	8	49	15	11	4	1	0
85	11	5		-	1												0	0	6	3	44	13	18	12	3	0	0
	10	4		-	3												0	0	5	2	41	13	20	14	4	1	0
84	10	5		-	2												0	0	2	0	31	8	20	23	12	3	0	0
	9	4		-	4														2	0	27	7	20	25	15	4	0	0
83	10	6		-	1														1	0	18	3	14	28	25	10	2	0
	9	5		-	3												0		0	0	16	3	13	28	26	11	2	0	0
82	9	6		-	2												0		0	0	8	1	6	22	33	22	7	1	0
	8	5		-	4														0	0	7	1	5	20	33	25	8	1	0
	10	7		-	0														0	0	9	1	7	22	33	21	6	1	0
81	8	6		-	3														0		3	0	1	10	28	34	19	4	0	0
	9	7		-	1														0		3	0	2	11	29	33	17	4	0	0
80	8	7		-	2														0		1	0	0	4	17	34	31	11	1	0
	7	6		-	4														0		1	0	0	3	15	33	33	13	2	0
	9	8		-	0														0		1	0	0	4	18	34	30	11	1	0
79	7	7		-	3																0		0	1	6	23	39	25	6	0	0
	8	8		-	1																0		0	1	7	25	38	22	5	0
78	7	8		-	2																0		0	0	2	13	34	36	14	2	0
	6	7		-	4																0		0	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	0
	8	9		-	0																0		0	0	2	14	35	35	13	1	0
77	6	8		-	3																0			0	0	4	21	40	28	6	0
	7	9		-	1																0			0	0	5	23	41	26	5	0	0
76	6	9		-	2																0				0	1	11	35	39	13	1	0
	5	8		-	4																			0	0	1	11	35	39	14	1	0
75	6	10		-	1																				0	0	4	24	44	25	3	0
	5	9		-	3																				0	0	4	22	44	27	3	0	0
74	5	10		-	2																					0	1	12	39	38	9	1	0
	4	9		-	4																					0	1	12	38	39	9	1	0
73	5	11		-	1																					0	0	4	27	46	19	3	0
72	4	11		-	2																						0	1	15	44	31	8	1	0
71	4	12		-	1																							0	6	34	41	16	2	0
70	3	12		-	2																							0	2	22	41	28	6	0
69	3	13		-	1																								1	11	35	39	14	1
68	2	13		-	2																								0	3	24	42	26	4
67	2	14		-	1																									1	12	37	40	9
66	1	14		-	2																									0	5	31	45	19
65	1	15		-	1																										1	21	53	25
64	1	16		-	0																										3	13	37	47
63	0	16		-	1																												33	67
62	0	17		-	0																											2	24	75

Total:									0		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	8	2	4	7	11	14	16	15	11	6	2	1	0	0