Columbus Blue Jackets Playoff Chances 2014-2015

Plays at Islanders, playoff odds up 5.8 to 13.8%

66 points 28 26-10

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	-0.6
Bruins 3 Flames 4	+0.4		+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Devils vs Blue Jackets	-5.8-1.6-1.7+3.6+4.4+4.3		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.3+0.3
Senators vs Sabres	+0.5-1.0-0.9-1.0-1.4*+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Blue Jackets finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

98	16	0		-	0	In		No				7	17	17	58	0									310
97	15	0		-	1	In		No					12	20	68										95
96	15	1		-	0	In		No				0	1	9	84	5									485	*
95	14	1		-	1	99.9	%	No				0	0	5	87	8	0								1,453	*
94	13	1		-	2	99.6		No					0	3	83	14	0								4,478	*
93	13	2		-	1	98.7		No					0	2	74	23	1								10,457	*
92	12	2		-	2	96.0		No				0	0	1	62	34	4	0							23,603	*
91	12	3		-	1	90.6		No						0	48	43	9	0	0						44,300	*
90	11	3		-	2	81.5		No						0	33	48	17	1	0						78,856	*
89	11	4		-	1	68.3		No						0	21	48	28	4	0						71,401
	10	3		-	3	66.0		No						0	19	47	29	4	0						51,782	*
88	10	4		-	2	49.8		No						0	10	40	39	11	1						106,626
	11	5		-	0	49.9		No						0	10	40	39	10	1						77,976	*
87	10	5		-	1	32.8		No						0	5	28	45	20	3	0					132,157
	9	4		-	3	30.5		No						0	4	26	45	21	3	0					111,309	*
86	9	5		-	2	17.2		No						0	2	16	42	33	7	0					177,941
	10	6		-	0	18.8		No						0	2	17	43	31	7	0					68,658
	8	4		-	4	15.9		No						0	1	15	41	35	8	0					62,477	*
85	9	6		-	1	8.0		No						0	0	8	34	42	16	0					184,884
	8	5		-	3	7.0		No						0	0	7	33	43	17	0					167,469	*
84	8	6		-	2	2.8		No						0	0	3	21	46	29	1	0				220,058
	9	7		-	0	3.1		No						0	0	3	22	46	28	1	0				81,161
	7	5		-	4	2.2		No							0	2	20	46	31	1	0				82,018	*
83	8	7		-	1	0.8		No						0	0	1	11	42	44	2	0				194,926
	7	6		-	3	0.7		No							0	1	10	40	45	3	0				182,074	*
82	7	7		-	2	0.2		No						0	0	0	5	31	58	7	0				204,296
	8	8		-	0	0.2		No						0		0	5	32	57	6	0				75,354
	6	6		-	4	0.1		No							0	0	4	29	58	9	0				76,250	*
81	7	8		-	1	0.0		No								0	2	20	65	13	0				158,243
	6	7		-	3	0.0		No								0	1	18	64	15	0				145,839	*
80	6	8		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	10	64	24	1				143,621
	7	9		-	0	0.0		No								0	0	11	66	22	1				59,034	*
	5	7		-	4	0.0		No								0	0	9	61	28	1	0			46,898
79	6	9		-	1	Out		No									0	5	57	35	3	0			110,808	*
	5	8		-	3	Out		No									0	4	54	38	3	0	0		72,852
78	5	9		-	2	Out		No									0	2	44	47	7	0			75,332
	6	10		-	0	Out		No									0	2	45	47	7	0			55,473	*
77	5	10		-	1	Out		No										0	33	53	13	0	0		46,455
	4	9		-	3	Out		No									0	0	28	56	15	0			36,412	*
76	4	10		-	2	Out		No										0	19	56	24	1	0		50,760	*
75	4	11		-	1	Out		No										0	10	50	36	4	0		27,807	*
74	3	11		-	2	Out		No											5	40	46	9	0		14,259	*
73	3	12		-	1	Out		No										0	2	27	52	17	1	0	6,355	*
72	2	12		-	2	Out		No											1	16	51	28	4	0	2,814	*
71	2	13		-	1	Out		No												8	45	36	11	0	997	*
70	2	14		-	0	Out		No												4	29	44	21	1	351	*
69	1	14		-	1	Out		No												2	16	44	33	5	94	*
68	1	15		-	0	Out		No													8	42	35	15	26	*
67	0	15		-	1	Out		No													33	33		33	3
66	0	16		-	0	Out		No													1	16	59	25	293

Total:						13.8	%	No				0	0	0	4	10	18	24	32	10	2	0	0	0	3,547,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bruins 3 Flames 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Devils vs Blue Jackets	+0.7+0.2+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Hurricanes vs Wild	-0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Sabres	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

98	16	0		-	0							5	3	16	1	17		58		0
97	15	0		-	1									11	1	20		68
96	15	1		-	0								0	0	1	9	0	82	1	5
95	14	1		-	1								0	0	0	4	0	84	3	8		0
94	13	1		-	2									0	0	3	0	77	5	14		0
93	13	2		-	1										0	1	0	64	10	23		1
92	12	2		-	2								0		0	1	0	48	14	33	0	4	0
91	12	3		-	1											0	0	30	17	42	0	9	0	0
90	11	3		-	2											0	0	16	17	47	1	17	1	0
89	11	4		-	1											0	0	7	13	45	3	28	4	0
	10	3		-	3											0	0	6	13	44	3	29	4	0
88	10	4		-	2											0	0	2	8	34	6	39	11	1	0
	11	5		-	0											0	0	3	9	35	5	38	10	1
87	10	5		-	1											0	0	1	4	21	7	44	20	3	0	0
	9	4		-	3											0	0	0	4	19	7	44	22	3	0	0
86	9	5		-	2												0	0	1	9	7	40	34	9	1	0	0
	10	6		-	0												0	0	2	10	7	41	32	8	0	0
	8	4		-	4												0	0	1	8	7	38	35	10	1	0
85	9	6		-	1												0	0	0	3	5	28	41	20	3	0	0
	8	5		-	3												0	0	0	2	4	27	42	21	3	0	0	0
84	8	6		-	2												0	0	0	1	2	14	38	34	10	2	0	0
	9	7		-	0												0		0	1	2	15	39	33	9	1	0	0
	7	5		-	4													0	0	0	2	13	36	35	11	2	0	0
83	8	7		-	1												0		0	0	1	5	25	40	22	6	1	0
	7	6		-	3														0	0	1	5	23	39	24	8	1	0	0
82	7	7		-	2												0		0	0	0	1	11	32	33	17	4	0	0
	8	8		-	0												0			0	0	1	12	34	33	16	4	0	0
	6	6		-	4														0	0	0	1	10	29	34	19	6	1	0
81	7	8		-	1																0	0	4	19	34	29	12	2	0	0
	6	7		-	3																0	0	3	16	32	31	14	3	0	0
80	6	8		-	2																0	0	1	7	22	35	26	9	1	0
	7	9		-	0																0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0
	5	7		-	4																0	0	0	5	20	34	28	11	2	0
79	6	9		-	1																	0	0	2	11	29	35	19	4	0	0
	5	8		-	3																	0	0	1	9	26	36	22	5	0	0
78	5	9		-	2																		0	0	3	15	34	33	13	1	0
	6	10		-	0																		0	0	3	15	34	33	13	1	0
77	5	10		-	1																			0	1	7	24	39	25	5	0	0
	4	9		-	3																			0	1	5	21	39	29	6	0
76	4	10		-	2																				0	2	11	34	39	13	1	0
75	4	11		-	1																				0	0	4	21	45	27	3	0
74	3	11		-	2																					0	1	10	39	40	9	1	0
73	3	12		-	1																						0	4	27	46	20	3	0
72	2	12		-	2																							1	15	45	31	8	1
71	2	13		-	1																							0	5	37	36	18	3	0
70	2	14		-	0																								3	22	37	31	6	1
69	1	14		-	1																									13	33	32	20	2
68	1	15		-	0																									4	23	38	23	12
67	0	15		-	1																									33		33		33
66	0	16		-	0																										3	30	48	19

Total:												0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	8	2	15	17	16	12	10	7	5	3	1	0	0	0	0