Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2014-2015

Lost to Blackhawks 4-11, playoff odds down 6.3 to 4.6%

63 points 27 28-9

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Flyers 1 Blues 6	-0.5
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	+0.3		+0.1
Panthers 2 Stars 4	-0.2		-0.1
Capitals 2 Wild 1 (so)	*+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.6-0.5		+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Avalanche finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance in		Pres	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

93	15	0		-	0	In		No					44	33	23	1									315
92	14	0		-	1	In		No					17	38	38	7									60
91	14	1		-	0	99.7	%	No					9	39	40	13	0								397	*
90	13	1		-	1	98.5		No					2	29	39	29	1								1,235	*
89	12	1		-	2	96.1		No					1	22	33	40	4	0							3,821	*
88	12	2		-	1	88.5		No					0	13	25	51	11	0							9,223	*
87	11	2		-	2	78.2		No					0	7	15	56	20	1	0						20,867	*
86	11	3		-	1	61.6		No						3	8	51	33	5	0	0					40,384	*
85	10	3		-	2	43.1		No						1	3	38	43	12	1	0					43,119
	11	4		-	0	43.7		No						1	4	39	43	12	1	0					30,978	*
84	10	4		-	1	27.0		No						0	1	25	47	22	4	0					67,087
	9	3		-	3	24.4		No						0	1	23	47	24	4	0					50,677	*
83	9	4		-	2	13.3		No						0	0	13	42	34	10	1					104,084
	10	5		-	0	15.2		No						0	0	15	43	33	9	1					41,293
	8	3		-	4	11.9		No						0	0	12	40	36	11	1					33,493	*
82	9	5		-	1	5.9		No						0	0	6	31	41	19	3					128,906
	8	4		-	3	5.0		No						0	0	5	29	42	21	3					111,411	*
81	8	5		-	2	1.9		No						0	0	2	18	41	32	8	0				178,945
	9	6		-	0	2.2		No						0	0	2	20	42	30	7	0				66,472
	7	4		-	4	1.6		No						0	0	2	17	39	34	9	0				63,914	*
80	8	6		-	1	0.5		No							0	1	9	34	41	16	0				184,235
	7	5		-	3	0.4		No							0	0	8	31	42	18	0				170,865	*
79	7	6		-	2	0.1		No								0	3	22	45	29	0				224,411
	8	7		-	0	0.1		No								0	4	24	45	26	0				81,749
	6	5		-	4	0.1		No								0	3	20	45	32	0				83,914	*
78	7	7		-	1	0.0		No								0	1	13	43	43	0				199,064
	6	6		-	3	0.0		No								0	1	11	41	46	0				187,278	*
77	6	7		-	2	0.0		No								0	0	6	34	60	1				210,439
	7	8		-	0	0.0		No								0	0	7	36	57	1				77,432
	5	6		-	4	Out		No									0	5	32	63	1				78,432	*
76	6	8		-	1	Out		No									0	2	24	71	2				163,830
	5	7		-	3	Out		No									0	2	22	74	2				148,558	*
75	5	8		-	2	Out		No									0	1	14	81	4				147,254
	6	9		-	0	Out		No									0	1	16	79	4				60,440	*
	4	7		-	4	Out		No										1	13	82	5				46,540	*
74	5	9		-	1	Out		No									0	0	8	83	8				101,021
	4	8		-	3	Out		No									0	0	7	84	9				83,986	*
73	4	9		-	2	Out		No										0	4	82	14				75,070
	5	10		-	0	Out		No										0	4	82	14				54,516	*
72	4	10		-	1	Out		No										0	2	77	21				46,858
	3	9		-	3	Out		No										0	1	76	22				33,591	*
71	3	10		-	2	Out		No										0	1	69	31				47,475	*
70	3	11		-	1	Out		No											0	58	41				24,209	*
69	2	11		-	2	Out		No											0	48	52				11,894	*
68	2	12		-	1	Out		No											0	36	63				4,815	*
67	1	12		-	2	Out		No											0	27	73				1,918	*
66	1	13		-	1	Out		No												16	84				576	*
65	1	14		-	0	Out		No												15	85				190	*
64	0	14		-	1	Out		No												7	93				44
63	0	15		-	0	Out		No												3	97				295

Total:						4.6	%	No					0	0	0	4	10	17	26	40	3				3,547,580

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Panthers 2 Stars 4	+0.1
Coyotes 3 Canucks 1	-0.1
Bruins 3 Flames 4	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Hurricanes vs Wild	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

						100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:						Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

93	15	0		-	0										44	0	32	21	2	1
92	14	0		-	1										17		38	27	12	3	3
91	14	1		-	0										9	0	39	19	20	11	1	0
90	13	1		-	1										2		29	12	26	23	6	1
89	12	1		-	2										1	0	22	6	27	26	14	4	0
88	12	2		-	1										0		13	2	23	23	28	10	2	0	0
87	11	2		-	2										0		7	0	15	15	41	14	6	1	0	0
86	11	3		-	1												3	0	8	6	45	16	14	6	1	0	0
85	10	3		-	2												1	0	3	2	37	12	21	17	6	1	0
	11	4		-	0												1	0	4	2	37	13	21	16	6	1	0
84	10	4		-	1												0		1	0	25	6	20	26	16	4	1	0
	9	3		-	3												0		1	0	23	6	19	27	18	5	1	0
83	9	4		-	2												0		0	0	13	2	11	27	29	14	3	0	0
	10	5		-	0												0		0	0	15	2	12	28	27	12	3	0	0
	8	3		-	4												0		0	0	12	2	10	25	30	17	4	0	0
82	9	5		-	1												0		0	0	6	0	5	18	32	27	10	2	0
	8	4		-	3												0		0	0	5	0	4	16	32	29	12	2	0
81	8	5		-	2												0		0		2	0	1	7	23	34	24	7	1	0
	9	6		-	0												0		0		2	0	1	8	26	34	22	6	1	0
	7	4		-	4												0		0		2	0	1	6	22	34	26	9	1	0
80	8	6		-	1														0		1	0	0	2	12	30	34	17	3	0	0
	7	5		-	3														0		0	0	0	2	10	28	36	20	4	0
79	7	6		-	2																0		0	0	4	17	36	32	10	1	0
	8	7		-	0																0		0	0	5	19	37	30	9	1	0
	6	5		-	4																0		0	0	3	15	34	34	12	1
78	7	7		-	1																0		0	0	1	8	27	40	21	3	0
	6	6		-	3																0			0	1	6	25	41	24	3	0
77	6	7		-	2																0			0	0	2	14	39	36	8	0	0
	7	8		-	0																0			0	0	3	16	40	34	7	0	0
	5	6		-	4																			0	0	2	12	38	38	9	0	0
76	6	8		-	1																			0	0	1	6	29	45	18	1	0
	5	7		-	3																				0	0	5	27	47	19	1	0	0
75	5	8		-	2																					0	2	16	46	31	4	0	0
	6	9		-	0																				0	0	2	18	46	30	4	0
	4	7		-	4																					0	1	15	46	33	5	0
74	5	9		-	1																					0	0	8	38	43	11	1	0
	4	8		-	3																					0	0	7	37	44	11	1	0
73	4	9		-	2																						0	2	24	48	21	3	0	0
	5	10		-	0																						0	3	25	48	21	3	0
72	4	10		-	1																						0	1	14	44	33	8	1	0
	3	9		-	3																						0	0	13	44	33	9	1	0
71	3	10		-	2																							0	6	33	41	17	2	0
70	3	11		-	1																							0	2	20	41	29	7	0
69	2	11		-	2																								1	10	34	39	15	1
68	2	12		-	1																								0	5	22	42	27	4
67	1	12		-	2																								0	1	13	37	39	10
66	1	13		-	1																										6	28	50	15
65	1	14		-	0																										3	21	49	27
64	0	14		-	1																										2	14	52	32
63	0	15		-	0																										0	4	40	55

Total:															0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	2	5	8	12	15	19	18	11	4	1	0	0