Tampa Express Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Lost to Minnesota 1-6, playoff odds down 4.7 to 80.3%

49 points 24 19-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	-4.1		-0.4
Toronto 6 Long Island 5 (so)	-0.6
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa vs Seattle	+3.7+3.8+3.5*-0.4-0.6-4.6		+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.0-0.1-0.4
Long Island vs Miami	-0.7-0.5-0.9-0.0+0.2+0.8
Calgary vs Philadelphie	+0.7+0.1-0.1-0.6-0.4-0.6		+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Washington vs Ottawa	-0.2-0.3-0.8+0.1*-0.2+0.4		-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Edmonton	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.3-0.1+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Tampa finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

115	-125						In		100												140	*
114		31	4		-	3	In		95		5										20	*
113		30	4		-	4	In		92	4	4										49	*
112		30	5		-	3	In		89		11										84	*
111		29	5		-	4	In		79	8	14										170	*
110		29	6		-	3	In		77	7	15	0									342	*
109		28	6		-	4	In		68	11	21	0									659	*
108		28	7		-	3	In		61	13	25	1									1,222	*
107		27	7		-	4	In		49	15	34	2									2,020	*
106		27	8		-	3	In		40	16	41	3	0								3,355	*
105		26	8		-	4	In		30	17	47	5	0								5,312	*
104		26	9		-	3	In		21	17	53	9	0	0							7,955	*
103		25	9		-	4	In		14	16	55	15	1	0							11,581	*
102		25	10		-	3	In		8	14	55	22	1	0							16,724	*
101		24	10		-	4	In		4	11	52	29	3	0							22,729	*
100		24	11		-	3	In		2	8	45	37	7	0	0						30,116	*
99		23	11		-	4	In		1	5	36	43	13	1	0						38,572	*
98		23	12		-	3	In		0	3	27	46	20	3	0	0					47,697	*
97		22	12		-	4	In		0	2	18	44	29	7	1	0					57,022	*
96		21	12		-	5	100.0	%	0	1	10	37	36	14	2	0	0				65,941	*
95		21	13		-	4	100.0		0	0	5	27	39	22	5	0	0				73,983	*
94		20	13		-	5	100.0		0	0	2	18	38	31	10	1	0				81,548	*
93		20	14		-	4	99.8			0	1	10	31	36	18	4	0	0			86,087	*
92		19	14		-	5	99.2			0	0	5	21	38	27	8	1	0			88,751	*
91		19	15		-	4	97.5			0	0	2	13	33	35	15	2	0			88,387	*
90		18	15		-	5	94.0			0	0	1	7	25	38	24	6	0	0		86,262	*
89		18	16		-	4	87.5				0	0	3	16	36	33	11	1	0		81,138	*
88		17	16		-	5	77.5					0	1	8	29	39	19	3	0	0	74,012	*
87		17	17		-	4	63.6					0	0	4	20	40	29	7	0	0	65,894	*
86		16	17		-	5	48.5						0	1	12	35	38	13	1	0	56,752	*
85		16	18		-	4	33.9						0	0	6	27	42	21	3	0	47,753	*
84		15	18		-	5	21.3						0	0	3	19	42	31	5	0	38,899	*
83		15	19		-	4	12.8							0	1	12	38	39	10	1	30,848	*
82		14	19		-	5	6.3								0	6	31	45	16	1	23,581	*
81		14	20		-	4	3.2								0	3	22	47	24	3	17,596	*
80		13	20		-	5	1.4								0	1	15	46	32	6	12,603	*
79		13	21		-	4	0.6									1	9	41	40	10	8,915	*
78		12	21		-	5	0.2									0	5	35	46	15	6,134	*
77		12	22		-	4	0.1									0	3	26	49	22	4,021	*
76		11	22		-	5	Out										1	19	50	30	2,539	*
75		11	23		-	4	Out										0	13	47	39	1,607	*
74		11	24		-	3	Out										0	10	41	48	932	*
73		10	24		-	4	Out											8	39	53	491	*
72		10	25		-	3	Out											2	30	68	335	*
71		9	25		-	4	Out											2	29	69	175	*
70		9	26		-	3	Out											2	26	72	82	*
69		8	26		-	4	Out												21	79	47	*
68		8	27		-	3	Out											4	4	91	23	*
66	-67						Out													100	13	*
65		7	29		-	2	Out												33	67	3	*
49		0	38		-	0	Out													100	132

Total:							80.3	%	1	1	8	13	14	15	15	13	10	6	2	1	1,291,253

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	+0.8
Vancouver 1 New York 2	+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.7
Washington vs Ottawa	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Philadelphie	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1
Long Island vs Miami	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

115	-125						100
114		31	4		-	3	95				5
113		30	4		-	4	92		4		4
112		30	5		-	3	85	5			11
111		29	5		-	4	76	2	8		14
110		29	6		-	3	74	4	7		15		0
109		28	6		-	4	62	5	11		21		0
108		28	7		-	3	54	8	13		25		1
107		27	7		-	4	40	10	15		34	0	2
106		27	8		-	3	29	11	16	0	41	0	3		0
105		26	8		-	4	19	12	17	1	46	1	5		0
104		26	9		-	3	11	10	16	1	51	2	9		0		0
103		25	9		-	4	5	8	13	2	52	4	15	0	1		0
102		25	10		-	3	2	6	11	3	48	7	22	0	1		0
101		24	10		-	4	1	4	8	3	41	11	29	1	3		0
100		24	11		-	3	0	2	5	4	30	15	35	2	7	0	0		0
99		23	11		-	4	0	1	2	3	19	18	39	5	13	0	1		0
98		23	12		-	3	0	0	1	2	9	17	36	10	20	1	3	0	0		0
97		22	12		-	4		0	0	1	4	14	28	16	27	2	7	0	1		0
96		21	12		-	5		0	0	1	1	9	17	20	30	7	13	0	2	0	0		0
95		21	13		-	4		0	0	0	0	5	7	20	26	13	20	2	5	0	0		0
94		20	13		-	5		0	0	0	0	2	2	15	18	20	25	5	10	0	1		0
93		20	14		-	4				0	0	1	1	9	9	22	25	12	17	1	4	0	0	0
92		19	14		-	5				0		0	0	5	3	18	18	19	23	4	8	0	1	0
91		19	15		-	4				0		0	0	2	1	12	10	23	25	10	14	1	2	0
90		18	15		-	5				0		0		1	0	6	4	21	20	18	22	3	6	0	0	0
89		18	16		-	4						0		0	0	3	1	15	12	24	26	7	11	1	0
88		17	16		-	5								0	0	1	0	8	6	23	25	14	18	4	0	0
87		17	17		-	4								0		0	0	4	2	18	18	21	26	9	1	0
86		16	17		-	5										0	0	1	0	11	11	24	30	18	4	0	0
85		16	18		-	4										0		0	0	6	6	22	29	28	9	1	0
84		15	18		-	5										0		0	0	3	2	16	23	35	17	3	0	0
83		15	19		-	4												0		1	1	11	15	36	27	8	1	0
82		14	19		-	5														0	0	6	9	32	34	15	3	0
81		14	20		-	4														0	0	3	4	23	38	24	7	1	0
80		13	20		-	5														0		1	2	15	34	32	13	2	0
79		13	21		-	4																1	1	7	28	38	21	5	0
78		12	21		-	5																0	0	3	19	38	30	9	1
77		12	22		-	4																0	0	1	12	33	36	16	2
76		11	22		-	5																	0	1	7	26	40	23	4
75		11	23		-	4																		0	3	18	38	33	8
74		11	24		-	3																			2	11	37	38	13
73		10	24		-	4																			0	9	26	46	20
72		10	25		-	3																				4	20	45	32
71		9	25		-	4																				4	15	49	31	1
70		8	25		-	5																					13	38	48	1
69		8	26		-	4																					13	34	53
68		8	27		-	3																					9	22	65	4
67		8	28		-	2																						29	71
66		8	29		-	1																						17	83
65		7	29		-	2																							100
49		0	38		-	0																							7	93

Total:							1	0	1	1	4	3	7	6	7	7	8	7	8	7	8	5	7	6	4	2	1	0	0	0