Philadelphie Flyers Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Did not play, playoff odds down 1.6 to 65.8%

48 points 22 18-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 6 Long Island 5 (so)	-1.6
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	+0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Philadelphie	-4.9+0.5+0.8+5.4+5.3+5.7		-0.2+0.0+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Washington vs Ottawa	-0.6-0.6-0.6*+0.6+0.6+1.8		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.3-0.3-0.5+0.3+0.0+0.6
Long Island vs Miami	-0.4-0.5-0.2-0.0*+0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Philadelphie finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

115	-124						In		100												153	*
113		31	4		-	3	In		40	20	20	20									5	*
112		30	4		-	4	In		25	50	25										4	*
111		30	5		-	3	In		13	50	38										8	*
110		29	5		-	4	In		13	13	67	8									24	*
109		29	6		-	3	In		10	13	69	8									52	*
108		28	6		-	4	In		6	14	65	15									86	*
107		28	7		-	3	In		3	9	61	27	0								218	*
106		27	7		-	4	In		2	8	51	38	0								381	*
105		27	8		-	3	In		1	4	50	43	2								715	*
104		26	8		-	4	In		0	3	39	52	6	0							1,336	*
103		26	9		-	3	In		0	2	31	57	10	0							2,252	*
102		25	9		-	4	In			1	22	61	15	1							3,758	*
101		24	9		-	5	In			0	15	58	24	2	0						5,957	*
100		24	10		-	4	In			0	10	53	32	4	0						9,329	*
99		23	10		-	5	In			0	6	45	40	9	1	0					13,578	*
98		23	11		-	4	In			0	3	34	45	16	2	0					19,180	*
97		22	11		-	5	In			0	1	24	46	24	4	0					26,666	*
96		22	12		-	4	In			0	1	15	43	32	8	1					35,091	*
95		21	12		-	5	100.0	%		0	0	9	36	39	14	2	0				45,057	*
94		21	13		-	4	99.9				0	4	26	42	23	4	0				56,199	*
93		20	13		-	5	99.5				0	2	17	40	32	8	1				67,951	*
92		20	14		-	4	98.6				0	1	10	34	39	15	1				78,818	*
91		19	14		-	5	96.8				0	0	5	26	42	23	3	0			88,645	*
90		19	15		-	4	93.5					0	2	17	41	32	6	0			96,857	*
89		18	15		-	5	88.1					0	1	10	36	41	12	0			102,666	*
88		18	16		-	4	80.9					0	0	5	28	47	19	0			105,270	*
87		17	16		-	5	71.1					0	0	3	20	48	28	1	0		104,540	*
86		17	17		-	4	59.9						0	1	13	46	39	2	0		100,278	*
85		16	17		-	5	48.8						0	0	8	41	48	3	0		93,240	*
84		16	18		-	4	37.2						0	0	4	33	57	6	0		83,806	*
83		15	18		-	5	27.4							0	2	25	63	10	0	0	74,223	*
82		15	19		-	4	19.1							0	1	18	65	15	1		62,571	*
81		14	19		-	5	12.4							0	0	12	64	22	2	0	51,424	*
80		14	20		-	4	7.7								0	8	60	29	3	0	40,983	*
79		13	20		-	5	4.4								0	4	54	36	6	0	31,745	*
78		13	21		-	4	2.3								0	2	46	42	9	0	23,317	*
77		12	21		-	5	1.3								0	1	37	47	15	0	17,088	*
76		12	22		-	4	0.5									1	28	49	21	1	12,183	*
75		11	22		-	5	0.2									0	20	49	28	2	8,080	*
74		11	23		-	4	0.0									0	15	45	37	4	5,308	*
73		10	23		-	5	0.1									0	9	40	45	7	3,330	*
72		10	24		-	4	Out										6	32	52	11	1,995	*
71		10	25		-	3	Out										4	27	54	15	1,185	*
70		9	25		-	4	Out										1	19	55	25	684	*
69		9	26		-	3	Out										2	11	52	35	379	*
68		8	26		-	4	Out											9	49	41	179	*
67		7	26		-	5	Out											6	37	58	90	*
66		8	28		-	2	Out											9	34	57	47	*
65		7	28		-	3	Out												53	47	19	*
64		7	29		-	2	Out												9	91	11	*
63		5	28		-	5	Out												29	71	7	*
48	-62						Out													100	157	*

Total:							65.8	%	0	0	0	3	7	12	18	25	26	6	1	0	1,477,125

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	-0.1
Toronto 6 Long Island 5 (so)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Philadelphie	+0.4-0.0-0.0-0.5-0.5-0.5
Washington vs Ottawa	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1
Tampa vs Seattle	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

115	-124						100
113		31	4		-	3	20	20	20		20		20
112		30	4		-	4	25		50		25
111		30	5		-	3		13	50		38
110		29	5		-	4	13		13		63	4	8
109		29	6		-	3	8	2	13		67	2	8
108		28	6		-	4	1	5	9	5	59	6	15
107		28	7		-	3	0	2	7	1	54	7	27		0
106		27	7		-	4	0	2	4	3	38	13	38	1	0
105		27	8		-	3		1	2	2	31	19	42	2	2
104		26	8		-	4		0	1	2	19	20	49	3	6		0
103		26	9		-	3		0	1	1	11	20	47	11	9	0	0
102		25	9		-	4			0	1	5	18	41	19	14	1	1
101		24	9		-	5			0	0	1	14	28	29	21	3	2	0	0
100		24	10		-	4			0	0	0	10	18	35	24	8	4	0	0
99		23	10		-	5				0	0	5	9	36	24	16	9	1	1		0
98		23	11		-	4				0	0	3	4	31	19	25	13	3	2	0	0
97		22	11		-	5				0	0	1	1	23	13	34	17	7	4	0	0
96		22	12		-	4				0		1	0	15	6	37	18	15	7	1	1
95		21	12		-	5				0		0	0	9	3	33	15	25	12	3	2	0	0
94		21	13		-	4						0	0	4	1	25	10	32	16	7	4	0	0
93		20	13		-	5						0		2	0	17	5	35	18	14	8	0	1
92		20	14		-	4						0		1	0	10	2	32	17	22	14	1	1
91		19	14		-	5						0		0	0	5	1	25	13	30	20	3	3	0
90		19	15		-	4								0		2	0	17	8	33	26	6	6	0
89		18	15		-	5								0		1	0	10	4	32	29	12	12	0
88		18	16		-	4								0		0	0	5	2	27	28	19	18	1	0
87		17	16		-	5								0		0	0	3	1	20	24	25	27	2	0
86		17	17		-	4										0		1	0	13	18	28	35	5	0
85		16	17		-	5										0		0	0	8	12	29	41	10	0	0
84		16	18		-	4										0		0	0	4	7	26	45	16	1	0
83		15	18		-	5												0	0	2	4	22	45	25	3	0	0
82		15	19		-	4												0		1	2	16	41	33	6	0	0
81		14	19		-	5												0		0	1	11	35	41	11	1	0
80		14	20		-	4														0	0	7	27	46	17	2	0
79		13	20		-	5														0	0	4	20	46	25	4	0
78		13	21		-	4														0	0	2	13	43	33	8	1	0
77		12	21		-	5														0	0	1	8	36	40	13	1	0
76		12	22		-	4																1	4	28	43	21	3	0
75		11	22		-	5																0	2	20	42	29	6	0
74		11	23		-	4																0	1	14	37	36	10	1
73		10	23		-	5																0	0	7	31	41	19	2
72		10	24		-	4																	0	4	23	43	26	4	0
71		10	25		-	3																		2	16	42	34	7
70		9	25		-	4																	0	0	8	38	40	13	0
69		9	26		-	3																		1	6	25	49	20	1
68		8	26		-	4																			2	18	54	24	2
67		7	26		-	5																			1	12	39	42	6
66		8	28		-	2																			2	11	36	49	2
65		7	28		-	3																				16	47	37
64		7	29		-	2																					18	73	9
63		6	29		-	3																					14	86
62		6	30		-	2																					33		67
58	-61																												100
48		0	38		-	0																						2	83	15

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	6	2	10	5	13	12	12	19	10	4	1	0	0	0	0