Minnesota Wild Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Beat Tampa 6-1, playoff odds up 1.6 to 7.5%

37 points 17 25-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	+1.8		+0.2
Toronto 6 Long Island 5 (so)	*-0.1
Montreal 3 Ottawa 1			+0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton	+1.9+2.0+2.0-0.6-0.4-2.4		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Calgary vs Philadelphie	+0.4-0.0+0.1*-0.1-0.3-0.3
Long Island vs Miami	-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1*+0.1+0.4
Washington vs Ottawa	-0.2-0.4-0.3-0.2*+0.0+0.3
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Minnesota finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

111		37	0		-	0	In		92	8											132
103		32	3		-	2	In			100											1
102		31	3		-	3	In			29	71										7	*
101		31	4		-	2	In		8	58	33										12	*
100		30	4		-	3	In			35	42	23									26	*
99		30	5		-	2	In			39	30	25	6								71	*
98		29	5		-	3	In		1	21	32	31	12	3							145	*
97		28	5		-	4	In			16	26	34	19	5							260	*
96		28	6		-	3	In			12	12	36	28	10	1						504	*
95		27	6		-	4	In			5	8	27	37	19	4	0					1,025	*
94		27	7		-	3	99.8	%		4	3	20	37	26	9	1	0				1,714	*
93		26	7		-	4	99.6			2	1	10	31	34	17	4	0	0			2,928	*
92		26	8		-	3	98.4			1	0	5	20	35	27	10	2	0			4,634	*
91		25	8		-	4	95.4			0	0	2	12	29	34	18	4	0			7,389	*
90		25	9		-	3	88.5			0	0	1	6	20	34	28	10	1	0		10,754	*
89		24	9		-	4	77.9			0	0	0	2	11	30	34	18	4	0		15,642	*
88		24	10		-	3	62.8			0		0	1	6	21	36	28	9	1	0	21,590	*
87		23	10		-	4	46.0			0			0	2	12	32	36	16	2	0	28,551	*
86		23	11		-	3	30.2						0	1	6	23	39	26	5	0	37,080	*
85		22	11		-	4	17.8						0	0	3	15	37	35	10	0	46,257	*
84		22	12		-	3	9.1						0	0	1	8	31	42	18	1	56,089	*
83		21	12		-	4	4.4							0	0	4	23	45	26	2	65,265	*
82		21	13		-	3	1.7							0	0	2	15	44	36	4	74,231	*
81		20	13		-	4	0.7								0	1	9	39	45	7	33,101
		19	12		-	6	0.7								0	1	9	39	45	7	48,185	*
80		20	14		-	3	0.2								0	0	5	31	52	12	86,259	*
79		19	14		-	4	0.1								0	0	2	23	56	18	36,325
		18	13		-	6	0.1									0	2	24	56	18	52,825	*
78		18	14		-	5	0.0									0	1	17	58	25	89,818	*
77		18	15		-	4	Out										0	12	55	33	35,628
		17	14		-	6	0.0									0	0	11	55	33	51,903	*
76		17	15		-	5	0.0									0	0	7	51	41	83,046	*
75		17	16		-	4	Out										0	4	45	50	75,350	*
74		16	16		-	5	Out										0	2	39	58	67,424	*
73		16	17		-	4	Out										0	1	33	66	58,248	*
72		15	17		-	5	Out										0	1	27	73	48,419	*
71		15	18		-	4	Out											0	21	79	39,647	*
70		14	18		-	5	Out											0	16	84	31,223	*
69		14	19		-	4	Out											0	12	88	23,923	*
68		14	20		-	3	Out											0	8	92	17,717	*
67		13	20		-	4	Out											0	6	94	12,847	*
66		13	21		-	3	Out												4	96	8,828	*
65		12	21		-	4	Out												3	97	5,998	*
64		12	22		-	3	Out												2	98	3,938	*
63		11	22		-	4	Out												1	99	2,562	*
62		11	23		-	3	Out												1	99	1,496	*
61		10	23		-	4	Out												1	99	971	*
60		10	24		-	3	Out												0	100	497	*
59		9	24		-	4	Out												0	100	306	*
37	-58						Out													100	462	*

Total:							7.5	%	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4	9	18	35	31	1,291,253

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Tampa 1 Minnesota 6	-0.3
Vancouver 1 New York 2	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton	-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.4
Long Island vs Miami	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

111		37	0		-	0	87	5	8
103		32	3		-	2			100
102		31	3		-	3			29		71
101		31	4		-	2		8	42	17	33
100		30	4		-	3			27	8	35	8	23
99		30	5		-	2			20	20	15	14	23	3	6
98		29	5		-	3		1	4	17	12	21	21	10	11	1	3
97		28	5		-	4			2	14	5	20	23	12	17	2	4	0
96		28	6		-	3			1	11	1	12	18	18	23	5	10	0	1
95		27	6		-	4			0	5	0	8	7	20	27	10	18	1	4		0
94		27	7		-	3				4		3	3	17	20	17	23	3	9	0	1		0
93		26	7		-	4			0	2		1	1	10	10	21	25	9	16	1	4		0	0
92		26	8		-	3				1		0	0	5	3	17	18	17	24	3	10	0	2	0
91		25	8		-	4				0		0	0	2	1	11	10	19	26	9	18	1	4	0
90		25	9		-	3				0		0		1	0	5	3	17	20	15	25	2	10	1	0
89		24	9		-	4				0		0		0	0	2	1	11	11	18	28	7	18	4	0
88		24	10		-	3				0				0		1	0	6	4	16	24	12	27	10	1	0
87		23	10		-	4				0						0	0	2	1	11	16	16	32	18	3	0
86		23	11		-	3										0	0	1	0	6	8	15	32	28	9	1	0
85		22	11		-	4										0		0	0	3	3	12	26	35	17	3	0	0
84		22	12		-	3										0		0	0	1	1	7	17	37	28	8	1	0
83		21	12		-	4												0	0	0	0	4	10	32	35	16	3	0
82		21	13		-	3												0		0	0	2	5	23	38	25	6	0	0
81		20	13		-	4														0	0	1	2	14	35	34	13	1	0
80		20	14		-	3														0	0	0	1	7	27	40	21	4	0
79		19	14		-	4														0		0	0	3	19	40	30	7	0
78		18	14		-	5																0	0	1	11	36	38	13	1
77		18	15		-	4																0	0	0	6	28	42	21	2
76		17	15		-	5																0	0	0	3	20	43	29	5	0
75		17	16		-	4																		0	1	13	39	37	9	0
74		16	16		-	5																		0	0	8	34	44	14	0
73		16	17		-	4																		0	0	4	27	48	21	0
72		15	17		-	5																		0	0	2	20	49	29	0
71		15	18		-	4																			0	1	14	47	38	0
70		14	18		-	5																			0	0	9	43	47	0
69		14	19		-	4																				0	5	38	56	1
68		14	20		-	3																				0	3	31	64	2
67		13	20		-	4																				0	2	24	72	3
66		13	21		-	3																				0	1	19	76	5
65		12	21		-	4																					0	13	79	7
64		12	22		-	3																					0	9	80	11
63		11	22		-	4																					0	6	80	14
62		11	23		-	3																						5	76	19
61		10	23		-	4																						3	74	23
60		10	24		-	3																						1	69	31
59		9	24		-	4																						1	52	47
58		9	25		-	3																						1	49	51
57		9	26		-	2																							53	47
56		8	26		-	3																							35	65
55		7	26		-	4																							17	83
54		7	27		-	3																							33	67
37	-53																													100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	5	9	13	18	20	18	10	0