Los Angeles Knights Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Beat Detroit 5-1, playoff odds up 1.7 to 95.9%

53 points 26 17-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1	+1.6		+0.3
Vancouver 1 New York 2	+0.2
Edmonton 4 Dallas 1			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Philadelphie	-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.3
San Francisco vs Houston	-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Los Angeles finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

116	-129						In		100												299	*
115		30	6		-	2	In		100		1										200	*
114		29	6		-	3	In		99	0	0										353	*
113		28	6		-	4	In		99	0	0										659	*
112		28	7		-	3	In		98	1	0										1,213	*
111		27	7		-	4	In		97	2	1										2,053	*
110		27	8		-	3	In		95	4	1										3,367	*
109		26	8		-	4	In		92	6	2										5,208	*
108		26	9		-	3	In		88	8	4	0									8,166	*
107		25	9		-	4	In		82	12	6	0									11,683	*
106		25	10		-	3	In		75	17	8	0									16,666	*
105		24	10		-	4	In		66	22	12	0	0								22,577	*
104		24	11		-	3	In		56	27	16	1	0								30,162	*
103		23	11		-	4	In		45	33	21	2	0								38,333	*
102		23	12		-	3	In		33	36	27	4	0	0							47,576	*
101		22	12		-	4	In		23	39	30	7	1	0							57,153	*
100		21	12		-	5	In		14	39	33	12	2	0	0						66,648	*
99		21	13		-	4	In		8	36	32	18	4	0	0						74,394	*
98		20	13		-	5	In		4	32	29	25	9	1	0						81,070	*
97		20	14		-	4	In		2	26	23	30	16	4	0	0					86,301	*
96		19	14		-	5	100.0	%	1	19	16	31	24	8	1	0	0				88,652	*
95		19	15		-	4	100.0		0	13	10	28	31	15	3	0	0				88,950	*
94		18	15		-	5	100.0		0	9	5	21	34	24	7	1	0				85,621	*
93		18	16		-	4	99.9		0	5	2	14	32	32	13	2	0				80,917	*
92		17	16		-	5	99.7		0	3	1	8	25	37	22	4	0				74,115	*
91		17	17		-	4	99.1			2	0	3	17	36	31	10	1	0			65,920	*
90		16	17		-	5	97.8			1	0	1	10	31	38	17	2	0			56,638	*
89		16	18		-	4	94.8			0	0	0	5	23	40	26	5	0			47,466	*
88		15	18		-	5	89.9			0	0	0	2	14	38	35	10	0			38,635	*
87		15	19		-	4	82.5			0		0	1	8	32	41	17	0			31,000	*
86		14	19		-	5	73.0			0			0	4	24	45	26	1			23,563	*
85		14	20		-	4	61.5			0		0	0	2	16	44	36	3	0		17,528	*
84		13	20		-	5	49.6			0				1	10	39	45	6	0		12,788	*
83		13	21		-	4	38.0							0	6	32	53	9	0		8,908	*
82		13	22		-	3	26.2							0	3	24	59	15	0		6,067	*
81		12	22		-	4	19.2							0	1	18	60	20	1		3,936	*
80		11	22		-	5	11.5								1	11	59	28	1		2,552	*
79		11	23		-	4	7.0								0	7	54	37	2		1,576	*
78		11	24		-	3	3.5									3	46	45	6		1,007	*
77		10	24		-	4	1.8									2	35	53	10		554	*
76		10	25		-	3	1.9									2	33	51	14		317	*
75		9	25		-	4	1.2									1	27	50	22		169	*
74		9	26		-	3	1.2									1	20	55	24		84	*
73		8	26		-	4	Out										14	46	41		37	*
72		8	27		-	3	Out										8	44	48		25	*
71		7	27		-	4	Out										33	33	33		6	*
70		7	28		-	3	Out										20	20	60		5	*
69		7	29		-	2	Out												50	50	2	*
66	-68						Out												100		2	*
53		0	38		-	0	Out												2	98	132

Total:							95.9	%	11	17	13	13	13	12	10	7	4	1	0	0	1,291,253

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1	-0.7
Edmonton 4 Dallas 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco vs Houston	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Minnesota vs Edmonton	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Calgary vs Philadelphie	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

117	-129						100
116		30	5		-	3	95	5
115		30	6		-	2	94	6			1
114		29	6		-	3	92	7	0		0
113		28	6		-	4	89	10	0		0
112		28	7		-	3	83	15	1		0
111		27	7		-	4	76	21	2		1
110		27	8		-	3	67	27	4	0	1
109		26	8		-	4	58	34	5	0	2
108		26	9		-	3	47	41	8	0	4	0	0
107		25	9		-	4	36	46	11	1	6	0	0
106		25	10		-	3	26	49	15	2	8	0	0
105		24	10		-	4	16	50	18	4	11	1	0		0
104		24	11		-	3	9	47	21	7	14	2	1		0
103		23	11		-	4	5	40	22	11	17	4	2	0	0
102		23	12		-	3	2	31	21	16	19	7	4	0	0		0
101		22	12		-	4	1	22	17	22	19	11	6	0	1		0
100		21	12		-	5	0	14	13	26	16	17	11	1	2	0	0		0
99		21	13		-	4	0	8	9	28	12	21	16	3	4	0	0		0
98		20	13		-	5	0	4	5	27	7	22	18	7	9	0	1		0
97		20	14		-	4		2	2	23	3	20	17	13	14	1	4	0	0		0
96		19	14		-	5		1	1	18	1	15	13	19	20	5	8	0	1	0	0		0
95		19	15		-	4		0	0	13	0	9	7	21	21	11	14	1	3	0	0		0
94		18	15		-	5		0	0	8	0	5	3	19	16	18	20	4	7	0	1		0
93		18	16		-	4		0	0	5	0	2	1	13	9	23	22	10	12	1	2	0	0
92		17	16		-	5		0	0	3		1	0	7	4	22	19	18	19	3	4	0	0
91		17	17		-	4			0	2		0	0	3	1	16	11	25	23	8	9	0	1	0
90		16	17		-	5				1		0	0	1	0	10	5	25	20	18	15	2	2	0
89		16	18		-	4				0		0		0	0	5	2	21	14	27	19	7	5	0	0
88		15	18		-	5				0		0		0		2	0	14	7	31	20	15	9	1	0	0
87		15	19		-	4				0				0		1	0	8	3	30	16	25	14	3	1	0
86		14	19		-	5				0						0	0	4	1	23	11	35	17	8	2	0	0
85		14	20		-	4				0				0		0		2	0	16	5	39	17	15	6	1	0
84		13	20		-	5				0								1	0	10	2	37	15	20	12	3	0	0
83		13	21		-	4												0		6	1	32	10	22	21	7	1	0
82		13	22		-	3												0		3	0	23	6	21	29	15	3	0	0
81		12	22		-	4												0		1	0	18	3	16	32	23	6	1	0
80		11	22		-	5														1	0	11	1	11	31	31	13	2	0
79		11	23		-	4														0		7	1	6	25	37	20	5	0
78		11	24		-	3																3	0	2	16	37	29	10	1
77		10	24		-	4																2		0	10	32	36	18	2
76		10	25		-	3																2		0	7	21	43	24	3
75		9	25		-	4																1		1	4	18	37	31	7
74		9	26		-	3																1			1	12	37	40	8
73		8	26		-	4																				5	24	41	30
72		8	27		-	3																				4	28	36	32
71		7	27		-	4																					50	33	17
70		7	28		-	3																					20	20	60
66	-69																												100
53		0	38		-	0																							2	98

Total:							2	8	5	12	5	8	6	7	7	7	7	6	5	5	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0