Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Beat Dallas 4-1, playoff odds up 0.5 to 99.1%

57 points 28 15-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton 4 Dallas 1	+0.5		+0.3
Vancouver 1 New York 2	+0.1
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1			+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton	-0.4+0.1+0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3		-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Calgary vs Philadelphie	-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1
Tampa vs Seattle			+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Edmonton finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

117	-133						In		100												1,502	*
116		28	7		-	3	In		100	0											1,181	*
115		27	7		-	4	In		100	0											2,027	*
114		27	8		-	3	In		100	0	0										3,364	*
113		26	8		-	4	In		100	0	0										5,261	*
112		26	9		-	3	In		99	1	0										7,997	*
111		25	9		-	4	In		98	1	0										11,713	*
110		25	10		-	3	In		97	2	1										16,514	*
109		24	10		-	4	In		96	3	1	0									22,575	*
108		24	11		-	3	In		93	5	2	0									29,661	*
107		23	11		-	4	In		89	7	4	0									38,071	*
106		23	12		-	3	In		83	11	6	0									47,145	*
105		22	12		-	4	In		76	15	9	0	0								56,942	*
104		21	12		-	5	In		66	20	13	1	0								65,842	*
103		21	13		-	4	In		55	25	18	1	0								74,614	*
102		20	13		-	5	In		44	28	24	3	0	0							81,180	*
101		20	14		-	4	In		33	31	30	6	0	0							34,597
		19	13		-	6	In		33	30	31	6	0	0							51,483	*
100		19	14		-	5	In		22	32	34	11	1	0	0						89,109	*
99		19	15		-	4	In		13	30	35	18	3	0	0						35,733
		18	14		-	6	In		13	29	36	18	3	0	0						53,191	*
98		18	15		-	5	In		7	25	34	26	7	1	0						85,919	*
97		18	16		-	4	In		3	19	29	32	14	2	0	0					80,709	*
96		17	16		-	5	In		1	13	21	35	22	6	1	0					74,607	*
95		17	17		-	4	100.0	%	0	9	13	33	30	12	2	0	0				65,554	*
94		16	17		-	5	100.0		0	5	7	26	35	21	6	0	0				56,970	*
93		16	18		-	4	99.9		0	2	3	18	34	30	11	1	0				48,248	*
92		15	18		-	5	99.8			1	1	9	28	36	20	4	0				38,426	*
91		15	19		-	4	99.3		0	0	0	5	19	36	30	8	1	0			30,902	*
90		14	19		-	5	97.9			0	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	0			23,836	*
89		14	20		-	4	95.2			0	0	1	6	23	40	25	5	0			17,472	*
88		13	20		-	5	90.2					0	2	15	38	34	10	0			12,928	*
87		13	21		-	4	83.1					0	1	8	32	42	16	1	0		8,957	*
86		12	21		-	5	74.0						0	4	24	46	25	1			6,224	*
85		12	22		-	4	62.1							2	16	44	35	3			4,141	*
84		12	23		-	3	50.2							1	10	40	44	6	0		2,657	*
83		11	23		-	4	37.7							0	5	32	52	11	0		1,648	*
82		10	23		-	5	28.6							0	3	26	54	17			980	*
81		10	24		-	4	20.3								1	19	57	22	0		587	*
80		10	25		-	3	12.1								0	12	58	28	2		313	*
79		9	25		-	4	6.9									7	50	38	5		175	*
78		9	26		-	3	4.7									5	44	47	5		85	*
77		8	26		-	4	2.4									2	39	54	5		41	*
76		8	27		-	3	5.0									5	40	50	5		20	*
75		7	27		-	4	Out										10	40	50		10	*
74		7	28		-	3	Out											75	25		4	*
73		7	29		-	2	Out												100		3	*
72		7	30		-	1	Out										50	50			2	*
70		5	30		-	3	Out												100		1
57		0	38		-	0	Out												27	73	132

Total:							99.1	%	31	16	17	12	9	6	4	2	1	0	0	0	1,291,253

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton 4 Dallas 1	-0.6
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1	-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton	+0.6+0.0+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
San Francisco vs Houston	+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

120	-133						100
119		29	5		-	4	98	2
118		29	6		-	3	99	1
117		28	6		-	4	98	2
116		28	7		-	3	97	3	0
115		27	7		-	4	95	5	0
114		27	8		-	3	92	8	0		0
113		26	8		-	4	88	11	0		0
112		26	9		-	3	84	16	1	0	0
111		25	9		-	4	76	22	1		0
110		25	10		-	3	68	29	2	0	1
109		24	10		-	4	58	37	3	0	1	0	0
108		24	11		-	3	48	45	5	0	2	0	0
107		23	11		-	4	37	52	7	1	4	0	0
106		23	12		-	3	26	57	9	2	6	0	0
105		22	12		-	4	17	59	12	3	8	1	0		0
104		21	12		-	5	10	56	14	6	12	2	1		0
103		21	13		-	4	5	51	15	10	15	4	1	0	0
102		20	13		-	5	2	42	14	15	17	7	3	0	0		0
101		20	14		-	4	1	32	11	19	17	13	6	0	0		0
100		19	14		-	5	0	21	8	23	15	19	10	1	1	0	0		0
99		19	15		-	4	0	13	5	24	11	25	15	4	3	0	0		0
98		18	15		-	5	0	7	3	22	6	28	17	9	7	0	1		0
97		18	16		-	4		3	1	18	3	26	16	16	12	2	2	0	0		0
96		17	16		-	5		1	0	13	1	20	11	24	16	5	6	0	1	0	0
95		17	17		-	4		0	0	9	0	13	6	27	17	13	11	1	2	0	0		0
94		16	17		-	5		0	0	5	0	7	2	24	13	21	16	5	5	0	0		0
93		16	18		-	4		0	0	2	0	3	0	17	8	27	18	12	10	1	1	0	0
92		15	18		-	5				1		1	0	9	3	25	15	21	16	4	4	0	0
91		15	19		-	4		0		0		0	0	5	1	19	9	28	19	11	8	1	1	0
90		14	19		-	5				0		0		2	0	11	4	28	17	21	13	3	2	0	0
89		14	20		-	4				0		0		1	0	6	1	22	11	30	17	8	4	0	0
88		13	20		-	5								0		2	0	15	5	33	17	18	8	1	0	0
87		13	21		-	4								0		1	0	8	2	30	14	29	12	4	1	0
86		12	21		-	5										0		4	1	23	8	37	14	9	3	0
85		12	22		-	4												2	0	16	4	40	15	15	7	1	0
84		12	23		-	3												1		10	1	38	11	21	14	3	0
83		11	23		-	4												0		5	1	32	8	20	24	9	2
82		10	23		-	5												0		3	0	26	5	19	28	16	3	1
81		10	24		-	4														1		19	2	11	34	25	7	1
80		10	25		-	3														0		12		10	28	32	14	3	0
79		9	25		-	4																7		3	23	38	24	5
78		9	26		-	3																5		4	14	39	28	8	2
77		8	26		-	4																2			10	27	37	22	2
76		8	27		-	3																5			5	25	35	30
75		7	27		-	4																				10	30	40	20
74		7	28		-	3																					25	50	25
73		7	29		-	2																						33	67
72		7	30		-	1																					100
70		5	30		-	3																							100
57		0	38		-	0																							27	73

Total:							9	22	6	11	7	11	6	7	4	5	3	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0