Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2011-2012

Lost to Edmonton 1-4, playoff odds down 0.004 to 99.98%

57 points 28 16-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

122	-131						In		100												2,647	*
121		31	4		-	2	In		100	0											2,445	*
120		30	4		-	3	In		100	0	0										4,611	*
119		30	5		-	2	In		100	0	0										7,847	*
118		29	5		-	3	In		100	0	0										12,262	*
117		29	6		-	2	In		99	1	0										19,176	*
116		28	6		-	3	In		98	1	1										27,234	*
115		28	7		-	2	In		97	2	1										37,885	*
114		27	7		-	3	In		95	4	2										49,990	*
113		27	8		-	2	In		92	5	3										63,161	*
112		26	8		-	3	In		87	8	4	0									76,492	*
111		26	9		-	2	In		81	12	7	0									89,189	*
110		25	9		-	3	In		73	17	10	0									47,214
		26	10		-	1	In		72	17	11	0									52,498	*
109		25	10		-	2	In		63	22	14	0	0								46,474
		24	9		-	4	In		62	22	15	0									60,638	*
108		24	10		-	3	In		51	27	21	1	0								52,344
		25	11		-	1	In		51	28	21	1	0								59,121	*
107		24	11		-	2	In		40	33	26	2	0	0							47,234
		23	10		-	4	In		39	33	26	2	0								64,973	*
106		23	11		-	3	In		28	36	31	4	0	0							50,689
		24	12		-	1	In		28	36	32	4	0	0							57,605	*
105		23	12		-	2	In		19	38	35	8	1	0	0						54,110	*
		22	11		-	4	In		18	37	36	8	1	0							46,780	*
104		22	12		-	3	In		11	36	37	14	2	0							41,948
		21	11		-	5	In		11	36	37	13	2	0	0						48,647	*
103		22	13		-	2	In		6	33	35	21	5	0	0						79,514	*
102		21	13		-	3	In		3	27	30	28	11	1	0						66,659	*
101		21	14		-	2	In		1	21	24	33	18	4	0						54,369	*
100		20	14		-	3	In		0	16	16	33	26	8	1	0					43,280	*
99		20	15		-	2	In		0	11	10	29	33	14	2	0					33,032	*
98		19	15		-	3	In		0	7	5	23	38	23	4	0					24,522	*
97		19	16		-	2	In			4	2	16	36	32	9	0					17,649	*
96		18	16		-	3	In			2	1	9	31	40	16	1					12,456	*
95		18	17		-	2	100.0	%		2	0	4	24	42	26	2	0				8,363	*
94		17	17		-	3	100.0			1	0	2	16	42	36	3	0				5,367	*
93		17	18		-	2	99.9			0	0	1	9	36	46	7	0				3,566	*
92		16	18		-	3	99.8			0		0	5	30	53	12	0				2,054	*
91		16	19		-	2	99.5					0	3	23	57	17	1				1,275	*
90		15	19		-	3	98.4						1	14	58	25	2				734	*
89		15	20		-	2	95.5						1	6	54	34	5				418	*
88		14	20		-	3	94.8							6	43	46	5				250	*
87		14	21		-	2	88.3							2	31	56	12				120	*
86		13	21		-	3	82.9							3	33	47	17				70	*
85		13	22		-	2	62.1								21	41	38				29	*
84		13	23		-	1	50.0									50	50				14	*
83		11	22		-	4	40.0									40	60				10	*
82		10	22		-	5	50.0								50		50				6	*
79	-81						Out										100				2	*
57		0	37		-	0	Out											5	95	1	152

Total:							100.0	%	45	21	18	8	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1,477,125

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton 4 Dallas 1	+0.4
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Minnesota vs Edmonton	-0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
San Francisco vs Houston	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

127	-131						100
126		34	2		-	1	98	2
125		33	2		-	2	100
124		33	3		-	1	98	2
123		32	3		-	2	98	2
122		32	4		-	1	95	5
121		31	4		-	2	93	7	0
120		30	4		-	3	89	11	0		0
119		30	5		-	2	84	16	0		0
118		29	5		-	3	76	23	0		0
117		29	6		-	2	69	30	1	0	0
116		28	6		-	3	59	40	1	0	1	0
115		28	7		-	2	49	48	2	0	1
114		27	7		-	3	38	57	3	0	2	0
113		27	8		-	2	28	64	5	1	3	0
112		26	8		-	3	19	68	6	2	4	0	0
111		26	9		-	2	12	69	8	4	7	0	0
110		25	9		-	3	7	66	10	7	10	1	0
109		25	10		-	2	3	59	11	11	13	2	0		0
108		24	10		-	3	1	50	11	17	16	5	1	0	0
		25	11		-	1	1	50	11	17	16	5	1		0
107		24	11		-	2	0	39	10	23	18	8	2	0	0		0
106		23	11		-	3	0	28	8	28	19	13	4	0	0		0
105		23	12		-	2	0	18	6	32	17	18	7	0	1	0	0		0
104		22	12		-	3	0	11	4	32	14	23	13	1	2	0	0		0
103		22	13		-	2	0	6	2	31	10	25	18	3	5	0	0		0
102		21	13		-	3		3	1	27	6	24	22	6	10	0	1		0
101		21	14		-	2		1	0	21	3	21	22	10	17	1	4	0	0
100		20	14		-	3		0	0	16	1	15	18	15	24	2	8	0	1		0
99		20	15		-	2		0	0	11	0	10	12	17	29	5	14	0	2		0
98		19	15		-	3		0	0	7	0	5	6	16	29	9	22	1	4	0	0
97		19	16		-	2				4	0	2	3	13	22	14	30	2	9	0	0
96		18	16		-	3				2		1	1	8	14	17	34	5	16	0	1
95		18	17		-	2				2		0	0	4	7	17	31	11	25	1	2	0	0
94		17	17		-	3				1		0		2	3	13	25	17	33	3	3		0
93		17	18		-	2				0		0		1	1	8	16	21	38	8	7	0	0
92		16	18		-	3				0				0	0	5	9	21	36	17	11	0	0
91		16	19		-	2								0		3	4	19	34	24	14	2	1
90		15	19		-	3										1	1	13	22	36	21	4	2
89		15	20		-	2										1	0	6	13	41	24	11	4	0
88		14	20		-	3												6	6	36	23	23	4	1
87		14	21		-	2												2	3	28	19	37	9	3
86		13	21		-	3												3	6	27	14	33	11	6
85		13	22		-	2													3	17	10	31	17	14	7
84		13	23		-	1																50	29	21
83		11	22		-	4																40	10	50
82		10	22		-	5														50				33	17
81		11	24		-	2																			100
79		8	23		-	6																		100
57		0	37		-	0																						5	94	1

Total:							10	35	6	15	9	9	5	2	4	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0			0	0	0