Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2011-2012 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds up 0.7 to 51.3%

42 points 20 21-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver 1 New York 2	+0.7
Los Angeles 5 Detroit 1	-0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Philadelphie	-2.1-2.2-2.0+0.2+0.4+2.6		-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
San Francisco vs Houston	-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.1-0.1+0.8
Tampa vs Seattle	+0.5+0.0-0.2-0.7*-0.4-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Colorado finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	Count

110	-120						In		100												138	*
109		32	4		-	3	In		91	9											11	*
108		32	5		-	2	In		93	3	3										30	*
107		31	5		-	3	In		93	5	2										57	*
106		30	5		-	4	In		79	15	6										123	*
105		30	6		-	3	In		69	18	13	0									239	*
104		29	6		-	4	In		58	27	15	0									467	*
103		29	7		-	3	In		50	31	18	2									794	*
102		28	7		-	4	In		38	33	25	4	0								1,434	*
101		28	8		-	3	In		26	38	29	7	0								2,352	*
100		27	8		-	4	In		15	38	33	12	2	0							3,810	*
99		27	9		-	3	In		8	34	31	21	5	1							5,848	*
98		26	9		-	4	In		4	28	28	26	11	2	0						8,989	*
97		26	10		-	3	In		2	23	21	31	18	5	1	0					12,702	*
96		25	10		-	4	In		0	15	14	30	27	11	2	0					17,892	*
95		25	11		-	3	100.0	%	0	10	7	25	32	20	5	1	0				24,182	*
94		24	11		-	4	99.9		0	6	3	16	32	29	12	2	0				31,853	*
93		24	12		-	3	99.6		0	3	1	9	26	34	21	5	0				39,812	*
92		23	12		-	4	98.9		0	2	0	4	18	34	30	11	1				48,512	*
91		22	12		-	5	97.1			1	0	2	10	28	37	20	3	0			57,926	*
90		22	13		-	4	93.1			0	0	0	5	20	38	30	7	0			66,737	*
89		21	13		-	5	87.1			0	0	0	2	12	34	39	13	0			74,652	*
88		21	14		-	4	78.7			0		0	1	6	27	45	21	0			81,149	*
87		20	14		-	5	67.6			0		0	0	3	19	46	31	1	0		85,289	*
86		20	15		-	4	55.7			0			0	1	12	43	42	2	0		87,706	*
85		19	15		-	5	43.8			0			0	0	6	37	52	4	0		86,992	*
84		19	16		-	4	32.8							0	3	29	60	8	0		84,551	*
83		18	16		-	5	23.8							0	2	22	64	12	0		79,673	*
82		18	17		-	4	16.0							0	1	15	66	18	0		72,235	*
81		17	17		-	5	10.5								0	10	64	25	1		64,613	*
80		17	18		-	4	6.1								0	6	60	32	1		55,964	*
79		16	18		-	5	3.7								0	4	54	40	3		47,276	*
78		16	19		-	4	2.1								0	2	46	47	5		37,511	*
77		15	19		-	5	1.1								0	1	38	53	7		30,362	*
76		15	20		-	4	0.5									1	31	58	11		23,283	*
75		14	20		-	5	0.3									0	23	61	16	0	17,697	*
74		14	21		-	4	0.1									0	17	62	22	0	12,694	*
73		13	21		-	5	0.1									0	12	59	29	0	8,774	*
72		13	22		-	4	0.0									0	8	55	37	0	6,031	*
71		12	22		-	5	Out										5	51	44	0	4,123	*
70		12	23		-	4	Out										2	44	53	0	2,661	*
69		11	23		-	5	Out										1	38	60	1	1,633	*
68		11	24		-	4	Out										1	33	65	2	1,019	*
67		10	24		-	5	Out										1	24	73	2	592	*
66		10	25		-	4	Out											18	77	5	326	*
65		10	26		-	3	Out										1	16	76	8	200	*
64		9	26		-	4	Out											6	79	15	102	*
63		8	26		-	5	Out											8	80	12	51	*
62		8	27		-	4	Out											12	67	21	33	*
61		8	28		-	3	Out												80	20	10	*
60		7	28		-	4	Out												75	25	4	*
59		7	29		-	3	Out												25	75	4	*
58		6	29		-	4	Out												33	67	3
42		0	39		-	0	Out													100	132

Total:							51.3	%	0	2	1	2	4	7	12	22	34	13	2	0	1,291,253

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Thursday	None

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Friday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Philadelphie	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Houston	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Tampa vs Seattle	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

111	-120						100
110		33	4		-	2	50	50
109		32	4		-	3	82	9	9
108		32	5		-	2	47	47	3		3
107		31	5		-	3	44	49	5		2
106		30	5		-	4	32	47	15	1	6
105		30	6		-	3	16	52	16	2	13	0	0
104		29	6		-	4	11	47	23	3	14	2	0
103		29	7		-	3	7	43	23	9	16	2	2
102		28	7		-	4	2	35	21	12	18	7	4	0	0
101		28	8		-	3	1	25	21	17	18	11	6	0	0
100		27	8		-	4	0	15	16	22	17	16	11	1	2	0	0
99		27	9		-	3	0	8	10	24	11	20	18	3	5	0	1
98		26	9		-	4		4	5	23	7	21	19	7	11	0	2	0	0
97		26	10		-	3		2	3	20	3	18	18	13	17	1	5	0	1		0
96		25	10		-	4		0	1	14	1	13	12	18	22	5	11	0	2		0
95		25	11		-	3		0	0	10	0	7	6	19	21	11	19	1	5	0	1		0
94		24	11		-	4		0	0	6	0	3	2	14	15	17	24	5	12	0	2		0
93		24	12		-	3		0	0	3	0	1	0	9	7	19	23	11	20	1	5	0	0
92		23	12		-	4		0	0	2		0	0	4	2	15	16	18	26	5	11	0	1	0
91		22	12		-	5			0	1		0	0	2	1	10	8	20	25	11	19	1	3	0
90		22	13		-	4				0		0		0	0	5	3	17	19	19	26	4	7	0	0
89		21	13		-	5				0		0		0	0	2	1	11	11	23	28	11	12	1	0	0
88		21	14		-	4				0				0		1	0	6	4	22	24	21	18	3	0	0	0
87		20	14		-	5				0				0		0	0	3	1	17	17	29	24	7	1	0
86		20	15		-	4				0						0		1	0	11	9	34	26	14	4	0	0
85		19	15		-	5				0						0		0	0	6	4	33	24	22	9	1	0	0
84		19	16		-	4												0	0	3	1	28	18	27	18	4	0	0
83		18	16		-	5												0		2	0	22	12	28	27	9	1	0
82		18	17		-	4												0		1	0	15	6	24	34	17	3	0	0
81		17	17		-	5														0	0	10	3	17	36	25	7	1	0
80		17	18		-	4														0	0	6	1	11	34	33	13	2	0
79		16	18		-	5														0		4	0	6	27	38	21	4	0
78		16	19		-	4														0		2	0	3	19	38	29	8	1
77		15	19		-	5														0		1	0	1	12	34	36	14	1
76		15	20		-	4																1	0	0	7	27	41	21	3
75		14	20		-	5																0		0	3	20	41	30	6	0
74		14	21		-	4																0		0	2	13	37	39	10	0
73		13	21		-	5																0		0	1	8	31	44	16	0
72		13	22		-	4																0		0	0	4	25	48	23	0
71		12	22		-	5																			0	2	18	48	32	0
70		12	23		-	4																				1	11	46	41	0
69		11	23		-	5																				0	7	42	50	1
68		11	24		-	4																					4	36	58	2
67		10	24		-	5																					4	28	67	2
66		10	25		-	4																				0	3	18	75	5
65		10	26		-	3																					1	19	74	7
64		9	26		-	4																						7	78	15
63		8	26		-	5																						12	76	12
62		8	27		-	4																						15	64	21
61		8	28		-	3																							80	20
60		7	28		-	4																							75	25
59		7	29		-	3																							25	75
58		6	29		-	4																							33	67
42		0	39		-	0																								100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	5	7	8	14	10	10	11	9	6	3	1	0