Lighthouse's Legit Team Playoff Chances 2022 50/50
Lost to Kevin 74.1-108.96, playoff odds down 9.8 to 30.2%
0-1-0 .000
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/11 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Lighthouse 74.1 Kevin 108.96 | -10.0 | -0.7 | ||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Not Good vs Lighthouse | -9.5*-19.0+9.5 | -0.7-1.9+0.7 | ||
| Maryanne vs Bravitt | -0.0*+0.4+0.0 | |||
| Don't Lose vs FFF-Fumble | -0.0*+1.1+0.0 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Lighthouse finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Count | |||
| 13 | 13 | - | 0 | - | 0 | In | 100 | 217 | ||||||||||||
| 12 | 12 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 100 | 0 | 1,540 | |||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | - | 2 | - | 0 | In | 93 | 7 | 0 | 8,954 | ||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 10 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 100 | 1 | |||||||||||
| 10 | 10 | - | 3 | - | 0 | In | 69 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 33,252 | |||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 9 | - | 3 | - | 1 | In | 50 | 50 | 6 | ||||||||||
| 9 | 9 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 99.7 | % | 24 | 46 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 83,095 | |||||||
| 8 | .5 | 8 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 75.0 | 38 | 13 | 25 | 25 | 8 | ||||||||
| 8 | 8 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 84.1 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 150,575 | ||||||
| 7 | .5 | 7 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 38.9 | 6 | 33 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 18 | ||||||
| 7 | 7 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 17.1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 33 | 33 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 199,539 | |||||
| 6 | .5 | 6 | - | 6 | - | 1 | Out | 7 | 21 | 43 | 21 | 7 | 28 | |||||||
| 6 | 6 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 35 | 34 | 13 | 1 | 199,852 | |||||
| 5 | .5 | 5 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 6 | 41 | 38 | 16 | 32 | ||||||||
| 5 | 5 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 46 | 24 | 150,111 | |||||||
| 4 | .5 | 4 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 5 | 35 | 60 | 20 | |||||||||
| 4 | 4 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 3 | 29 | 68 | 83,153 | |||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 3 | - | 9 | - | 1 | Out | 10 | 90 | 10 | ||||||||||
| 3 | 3 | - | 10 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 7 | 92 | 33,477 | ||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 2 | - | 10 | - | 1 | Out | 100 | 2 | |||||||||||
| 2 | 2 | - | 11 | - | 0 | Out | 1 | 99 | 9,040 | |||||||||||
| 0 | -1 | Out | 100 | 1,790 | * | |||||||||||||||
| Total: | 30.2 | % | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 954,720 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/11 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Lighthouse 74.1 Kevin 108.96 | +1.5 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 9/18 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Not Good vs Lighthouse | +1.5+3.7-1.5 | |
| Maryanne vs Bravitt | +0.0*-1.1-0.0 | |
| James vs Danny | +0.0*+0.4-0.0 | |
| Don't Lose vs FFF-Fumble | +0.0*-2.5-0.0 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Close but no cigar
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | |
| 13 | 13 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 99 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | 12 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 96 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 11 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 77 | 21 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 10 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 10 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 37 | 40 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 9 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 33 | 50 | 17 | |||||||||||||||||
| 9 | 9 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 4 | 17 | 28 | 27 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 8 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 38 | 25 | 25 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||
| 8 | 8 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 7 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 28 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 6 | |||||||||||
| 7 | 7 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 6 | .5 | 6 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 4 | 11 | 29 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| 6 | 6 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 5 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 34 | 6 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | 5 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 28 | 16 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 4 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 10 | 20 | 50 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 | 4 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 36 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 3 | - | 9 | - | 1 | 30 | 70 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 3 | - | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 77 | |||||||||||||||||
| 2 | .5 | 2 | - | 10 | - | 1 | 100 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | 2 | - | 11 | - | 0 | 0 | 5 | 95 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | 1 | - | 12 | - | 0 | 1 | 99 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 0 | 0 | - | 13 | - | 0 | 100 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:31 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
