Outlier Playoff Chances 2019 50/50
Beat Ocho cinco 87.54-70.4, playoff odds up 11.4 to 61.9%
3-1-0 .750
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How are these numbers calculated?
Big Games
How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain
| Week of 9/29 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Ocho cinco 70.4 Outlier 87.54 | +11.8 | +0.8 | ||
| And I Oop 42.9 Kat Andy 93.7 | -0.6 | |||
| FFF-Fumble 91.6 Title Shot 96.44 | -0.2 | -0.0 | ||
| Gronk 128.8 Winner's 106.74 | +0.2 | +0.0 | ||
| Grinders 81.34 cobra Kai 146.68 | -0.0 | |||
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||||
| Week of 10/6 | 100.0* | Chance in playoffs | 100.0* | Average seed |
| Grinders vs Outlier | -11.9*+0.8+11.9 | -0.7+0.1+0.7 | ||
| Ocho cinco vs Title Shot | +0.7*-0.0-0.7 | |||
| Gronk vs Kat Andy | +0.2*+1.2-0.2 | |||
| FFF-Fumble vs And I Oop | -0.2*-0.0+0.2 | |||
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Chances based on how well the Outlier finish out the regular season. Explain
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| If finish: | Chance in | Chance will finish regular season at seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | playoffs | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Count | |||
| 11.5 | -12 | In | 100 | 5,308 | * | |||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | In | 97 | 3 | 0 | 44,714 | ||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | In | 93 | 7 | 743 | ||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | In | 80 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 178,039 | |||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | In | 71 | 29 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | In | 64 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 2,492 | ||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 100.0 | % | 40 | 46 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 416,150 | ||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | In | 38 | 38 | 25 | 16 | |||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 100.0 | 20 | 50 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 4,979 | |||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 96.6 | 6 | 29 | 41 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 625,908 | ||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 90.0 | 15 | 50 | 25 | 10 | 20 | ||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 88.9 | 1 | 10 | 38 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 6,255 | ||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 50.0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 34 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 625,090 | |||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 28.1 | 3 | 25 | 38 | 34 | 32 | ||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 12.5 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 36 | 10 | 1 | 5,037 | ||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 35 | 33 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 416,461 | |||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | Out | 5 | 14 | 36 | 45 | 22 | ||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | Out | 1 | 14 | 41 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 2,449 | ||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 39 | 32 | 8 | 178,252 | ||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | Out | 14 | 71 | 14 | 7 | |||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | Out | 3 | 25 | 49 | 23 | 739 | ||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 0 | 8 | 40 | 52 | 44,674 | ||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | Out | 1 | 30 | 68 | 69 | |||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | Out | 0 | 8 | 92 | 5,257 | ||||||||||
| Total: | 61.9 | % | 16 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2,562,720 | |||||||
* Row combines multiple less frequent records.
Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs
Lottery
Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.
Big Games
| Week of 9/29 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Ocho cinco 70.4 Outlier 87.54 | -1.5 | |
| Lighthouse 112.94 Valerie 68.46 | +0.0 | |
| And I Oop 42.9 Kat Andy 93.7 | +0.0 | |
| Grinders 81.34 cobra Kai 146.68 | *+0.0 | |
| Stephen 52.8 Snacks Attack 87.64 | -0.0 | |
| If winner is:HomeTieAway | ||
| Week of 10/6 | 100.0* | Lottery seed |
| Grinders vs Outlier | +1.5-0.2-1.5 | |
* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.
What If
Close but no cigar
| 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |||||||
| If finish: | Chance will finish season at seed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| TW | W | - | L | - | T | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | |
| 12 | 9 | - | 0 | - | 0 | 100 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | .5 | 8 | - | 0 | - | 1 | 97 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | 8 | - | 1 | - | 0 | 93 | 7 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | .5 | 7 | - | 1 | - | 1 | 87 | 13 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
| 10 | 7 | - | 2 | - | 0 | 62 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 | - | 1 | - | 2 | 43 | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | .5 | 6 | - | 2 | - | 1 | 41 | 42 | 15 | 2 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
| 9 | 6 | - | 3 | - | 0 | 16 | 33 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| 5 | - | 2 | - | 2 | 25 | 31 | 25 | 13 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
| 8 | .5 | 5 | - | 3 | - | 1 | 3 | 16 | 34 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| 8 | 5 | - | 4 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 25 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 4 | - | 3 | - | 2 | 5 | 20 | 30 | 25 | 10 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | .5 | 4 | - | 4 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 7 | 4 | - | 5 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 22 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 3 | - | 4 | - | 2 | 6 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 28 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||
| 6 | .5 | 3 | - | 5 | - | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 28 | 29 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| 6 | 3 | - | 6 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| 2 | - | 5 | - | 2 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 27 | 32 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 | .5 | 2 | - | 6 | - | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |||||||||||
| 5 | 2 | - | 7 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 1 | - | 6 | - | 2 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | .5 | 1 | - | 7 | - | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 34 | 32 | 17 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | 1 | - | 8 | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 37 | 18 | ||||||||||||||
| 3 | .5 | 0 | - | 8 | - | 1 | 1 | 17 | 48 | 33 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 | 0 | - | 9 | - | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 65 | |||||||||||||||||
| Total: | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||
Updated Tuesday, 2023-11-7 2:31 PM Eastern (GMT-05:00)
