Portland Timbers Playoff Chances 2017 50/50

Lost to Crew 2-3, playoff odds down 4.1 to 73.8%

9 points 3-0-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	+8.5		+2.0		-1.9		+0.7
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	-1.0						-0.1
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	-0.6						-0.1
DC United 0 Sporting KC 0	+0.4						*+0.0
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	*+0.2						*+0.0
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	*+0.1						*+0.0
Dynamo 2 Sounders 1	*-0.1

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	-0.6						-0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	+0.6						+0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	+0.5						+0.0
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	+0.4
Impact 2 Sounders 2	+0.4						*+0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	*-0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando			+0.2+0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Timbers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

72	-99						In		99.8	%	100											No		2,983	*
71		19	-	5	-	6	In		99.5		100	0										No		1,480	*
70		18	-	7	-	5	In		98.2		99	1										No		2,324	*
69		18	-	6	-	6	In		98.4		99	1										No		3,278	*
68		17	-	8	-	5	In		97.6		99	1	0									No		4,792	*
67		17	-	7	-	6	In		95.8		98	2										No		6,615	*
66		17	-	6	-	7	In		93.5		98	2	0									No		9,458	*
65		16	-	8	-	6	In		89.9		96	4	0									No		12,450	*
64		16	-	7	-	7	In		85.6		94	6	0									No		16,328	*
63		16	-	6	-	8	In		79.0		91	9	0	0								No		21,280	*
62		15	-	8	-	7	In		71.7		87	12	0	0								No		27,143	*
61		15	-	7	-	8	In		62.3		82	17	1	0								No		34,363	*
60		15	-	6	-	9	In		51.4		76	22	2	0	0							No		42,222	*
59		14	-	8	-	8	In		39.5		68	28	3	0	0							No		50,736	*
58		14	-	7	-	9	In		28.0		59	34	6	0	0							No		59,904	*
57		13	-	9	-	8	In		17.6		49	40	10	1	0							No		69,323	*
56		13	-	8	-	9	In		9.8		38	43	16	2	0	0						No		79,201	*
55		13	-	7	-	10	In		4.4		28	44	23	5	0	0						No		88,057	*
54		12	-	9	-	9	100.0	%	1.6		19	41	29	9	1	0	0					No		97,562	*
53		12	-	8	-	10	100.0		0.4		12	35	35	15	3	0	0					No		104,621	*
52		12	-	7	-	11	99.9		0.1		6	26	37	23	7	1	0	0				No		110,386	*
51		11	-	9	-	10	99.7		0.0		3	17	34	30	13	3	0	0				No		113,470	*
50		11	-	8	-	11	98.9		No		1	10	27	34	21	7	1	0	0			No		57,376
		10	-	11	-	9	98.9		No		1	9	27	34	21	7	1	0				No		59,631	*
49		11	-	7	-	12	96.8		No		0	4	18	32	29	13	3	0	0			No		115,166	*
48		10	-	9	-	11	91.5		No		0	2	10	26	33	21	7	1	0	0		No		112,902	*
47		10	-	8	-	12	81.7		No		0	1	4	17	31	29	14	3	0	0	0	No		108,470	*
46		10	-	7	-	13	66.6		No		0	0	2	9	24	32	23	8	1	0	0	No		102,037	*
45		9	-	9	-	12	48.6		No			0	0	4	15	30	31	16	4	0	0	No		93,976	*
44		9	-	8	-	13	30.7		No			0	0	1	7	22	33	25	9	2	0	No		84,842	*
43		8	-	10	-	12	16.5		No				0	0	3	13	29	32	18	4	0	No		74,788	*
42		8	-	9	-	13	7.6		No				0	0	1	7	22	34	27	9	1	No		64,962	*
41		8	-	8	-	14	2.9		No					0	0	3	13	30	34	17	3	0.0	%	54,715	*
40		7	-	10	-	13	0.9		No						0	1	7	23	38	26	6	0.2		45,890	*
39		7	-	9	-	14	0.3		No						0	0	3	15	35	35	12	0.8		37,164	*
38		7	-	8	-	15	0.1		No							0	1	9	29	42	19	2.4		29,155	*
37		6	-	10	-	14	0.0		No							0	0	4	23	44	28	6.3		22,810	*
36		6	-	9	-	15	0.0		No							0	0	2	15	43	40	13.1		17,466	*
35		6	-	8	-	16	Out		No								0	1	9	40	50	23.3		12,890	*
34		6	-	7	-	17	Out		No									0	5	34	60	35.8		9,456	*
33		5	-	9	-	16	Out		No									0	3	27	70	48.3		6,412	*
32		5	-	8	-	17	Out		No										1	20	79	59.9		4,390	*
31		5	-	7	-	18	Out		No										1	15	84	70.2		2,976	*
30		4	-	9	-	17	Out		No										0	10	89	78.9		1,824	*
29		4	-	8	-	18	Out		No										0	8	92	83.7		1,173	*
28		4	-	7	-	19	Out		No										0	4	96	90.9		733	*
27		3	-	9	-	18	Out		No											3	97	94.1		407	*
26		3	-	8	-	19	Out		No											3	97	95.5		243	*
25		3	-	7	-	20	Out		No											2	98	93.7		143	*
9	-24						Out		No												100	Yes		367	*

Total:							73.8	%	9.5	%	17	14	13	11	10	9	8	6	5	4	3	1.1	%	2,080,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Lottery seed
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	-1.3
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	+0.1
DC United 0 Sporting KC 0	*-0.1
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	+0.1
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	*-0.0
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	*-0.0

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	+0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2	-0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	*-0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	-0.0
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	-0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

76	-99						100
75		20	-	6	-	4	100	0
74		20	-	5	-	5	100
73		19	-	7	-	4	100	0
72		19	-	6	-	5	100	0
71		19	-	5	-	6	100	0	0
70		18	-	7	-	5	98	1	1
69		18	-	6	-	6	98	1	1
68		17	-	8	-	5	98	1	1		0
67		17	-	7	-	6	96	3	2
66		17	-	6	-	7	94	4	2		0
65		16	-	8	-	6	90	6	4	0	0
64		16	-	7	-	7	86	8	6		0
63		16	-	6	-	8	79	12	9	0	0		0
62		15	-	8	-	7	72	16	12	0	0		0
61		15	-	7	-	8	62	20	16	0	1		0
60		15	-	6	-	9	51	25	21	1	2	0	0		0
59		14	-	8	-	8	40	28	27	1	3	0	0		0
58		14	-	7	-	9	28	31	31	3	6	0	0		0
57		13	-	9	-	8	18	31	33	7	10	0	1		0
56		13	-	8	-	9	10	29	32	11	15	1	2	0	0		0
55		13	-	7	-	10	4	24	27	17	21	2	5	0	0		0
54		12	-	9	-	9	2	17	18	23	25	5	9	0	1	0	0		0
53		12	-	8	-	10	0	11	10	25	25	10	15	1	3	0	0		0
52		12	-	7	-	11	0	6	4	22	20	17	20	3	7	0	1		0	0
51		11	-	9	-	10	0	3	1	16	12	22	23	7	12	0	3	0	0	0
50		11	-	8	-	11		1	0	9	4	22	19	15	19	2	7	0	1	0	0
49		11	-	7	-	12		0	0	4	1	17	11	22	21	8	12	1	3	0	0
48		10	-	9	-	11		0	0	2	0	10	4	22	17	16	19	3	7	1	0	0
47		10	-	8	-	12		0		1	0	4	1	16	8	22	20	9	14	4	1	0	0
46		10	-	7	-	13		0		0	0	2	0	9	3	21	14	18	19	11	3	0	0	0
45		9	-	9	-	12				0		0	0	4	0	14	6	23	19	19	10	3	0	0
44		9	-	8	-	13				0		0		1	0	7	2	20	12	22	21	11	3	1	0	0
43		8	-	10	-	12						0		0	0	3	0	13	5	16	25	22	11	4	1	0	0
42		8	-	9	-	13						0		0		1	0	7	1	7	19	27	23	12	3	0	0
41		8	-	8	-	14								0		0	0	3	0	2	9	20	28	23	11	3	0	0
40		7	-	10	-	13										0		1	0	0	3	11	23	29	22	9	2	0
39		7	-	9	-	14										0		0		0	1	4	13	26	29	19	6	1
38		7	-	8	-	15												0		0	0	1	6	17	30	29	14	2
37		6	-	10	-	14												0			0	0	2	9	24	34	25	6
36		6	-	9	-	15												0			0	0	1	4	15	33	34	13
35		6	-	8	-	16																0	0	1	8	27	40	23
34		6	-	7	-	17																	0	0	3	19	42	36
33		5	-	9	-	16																		0	1	12	39	48
32		5	-	8	-	17																		0	0	7	33	60
31		5	-	7	-	18																			0	3	26	70
30		4	-	9	-	17																			0	2	19	79
29		4	-	8	-	18																				1	16	84
28		4	-	7	-	19																				0	9	91
27		3	-	9	-	18																				0	5	94
26		3	-	8	-	19																					5	95
25		3	-	7	-	20																					6	94
9	-24																											100

Total:							9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	1