Seattle Sounders Playoff Chances 2017

Did not play, playoff odds up 1.4 to 62.4%

4 points 1-1-1

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Dynamo 2 Sounders 1	-5.2		-1.2		+1.1		-0.4
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	-0.7						-0.1
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	-0.7						-0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	+0.5		+0.1				+0.0
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	+0.4						+0.0
Galaxy 1 FC Dallas 2	-0.3
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	-0.2

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	-0.6						-0.0
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	+0.5						+0.0
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	+0.5
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	+0.4						+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2	-0.3		-0.2		-0.3		-0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	*-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando			+0.0+0.1-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sounders finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

77	-97						In		Yes		100											No		780	*
76		22	-	6	-	3	In		98.1	%	98	2										No		54	*
74	-75						In		99.6		100											No		272	*
73		21	-	6	-	4	In		99.1		99	1										No		325	*
72		21	-	5	-	5	In		99.0		100	0										No		629	*
71		20	-	7	-	4	In		98.9		100	0										No		988	*
70		20	-	6	-	5	In		98.5		99	1										No		1,630	*
69		20	-	5	-	6	In		98.1		99	1										No		2,724	*
68		19	-	7	-	5	In		96.5		98	2										No		4,127	*
67		19	-	6	-	6	In		95.0		98	2	0									No		6,319	*
66		18	-	8	-	5	In		91.8		96	4	0									No		9,389	*
65		18	-	7	-	6	In		88.1		95	5	0									No		14,096	*
64		18	-	6	-	7	In		83.0		92	8	0	0								No		19,850	*
63		17	-	8	-	6	In		76.1		88	12	0	0								No		27,827	*
62		17	-	7	-	7	In		67.3		83	16	1	0	0							No		38,296	*
61		17	-	6	-	8	In		56.9		77	21	2	0								No		51,613	*
60		16	-	8	-	7	In		45.2		70	27	3	0								No		67,779	*
59		16	-	7	-	8	In		33.5		60	34	6	0	0							No		87,122	*
58		15	-	9	-	7	In		22.4		51	39	9	1	0							No		110,334	*
57		15	-	8	-	8	In		13.3		41	43	14	2	0	0						No		136,424	*
56		15	-	7	-	9	In		6.6		31	44	21	4	0	0						No		165,308	*
55		14	-	9	-	8	100.0	%	2.8		21	42	28	7	1	0	0					No		197,577	*
54		14	-	8	-	9	100.0		0.9		13	37	34	13	2	0	0					No		229,454	*
53		14	-	7	-	10	100.0		0.2		8	30	37	20	5	0	0					No		261,208	*
52		13	-	9	-	9	99.9		0.0		4	21	37	27	9	1	0	0				No		292,101	*
51		13	-	8	-	10	99.6		0.0		2	13	32	34	16	4	0	0				No		320,085	*
50		13	-	7	-	11	98.8		0.0		1	7	24	35	25	8	1	0	0			No		343,846	*
49		12	-	9	-	10	96.6		No		0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0			No		361,171	*
48		12	-	8	-	11	91.6		No		0	1	8	24	35	23	7	1	0	0		No		371,783	*
47		12	-	7	-	12	82.5		No		0	0	3	15	32	31	14	3	0	0		No		375,320	*
46		11	-	9	-	11	68.8		No		0	0	1	8	25	35	23	7	1	0	0	No		369,966	*
45		11	-	8	-	12	51.5		No			0	0	3	15	32	32	14	3	0	0	No		359,237	*
44		10	-	10	-	11	34.1		No			0	0	1	8	25	36	23	6	1	0	No		339,153	*
43		10	-	9	-	12	19.6		No			0	0	0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0	No		314,310	*
42		10	-	8	-	13	9.7		No				0	0	1	8	27	37	22	5	0	No		285,609	*
41		9	-	10	-	12	4.2		No				0	0	0	4	18	36	31	10	1	0.0	%	253,763	*
40		9	-	9	-	13	1.6		No					0	0	1	10	30	37	18	3	0.1		220,718	*
39		9	-	8	-	14	0.5		No					0	0	0	5	22	39	27	6	0.4		186,355	*
38		8	-	10	-	13	0.1		No						0	0	2	15	37	36	11	1.6		155,122	*
37		8	-	9	-	14	0.0		No							0	1	8	31	42	18	4.3		126,595	*
36		8	-	8	-	15	0.0		No							0	0	4	24	45	27	9.6		100,304	*
35		7	-	10	-	14	0.0		No							0	0	2	16	45	36	17.5		77,438	*
34		7	-	9	-	15	Out		No								0	1	10	42	47	27.7		58,503	*
33		7	-	8	-	16	Out		No								0	0	6	36	57	39.7		42,856	*
32		6	-	10	-	15	Out		No								0	0	3	30	67	51.7		30,783	*
31		6	-	9	-	16	Out		No									0	2	23	75	63.0		21,663	*
30		6	-	8	-	17	Out		No										1	18	81	72.5		14,953	*
29		5	-	10	-	16	Out		No										1	13	87	80.7		9,862	*
28		5	-	9	-	17	Out		No										0	9	91	86.9		6,376	*
27		5	-	8	-	18	Out		No										0	6	94	91.0		3,938	*
26		4	-	10	-	17	Out		No											4	96	94.0		2,434	*
25		4	-	9	-	18	Out		No											3	97	96.3		1,435	*
24		4	-	8	-	19	Out		No											1	99	98.2		818	*
23		3	-	10	-	18	Out		No											0	100	99.1		425	*
22		3	-	9	-	19	Out		No											0	100	99.6		231	*
21		3	-	8	-	20	Out		No											1	99	99.0		100	*
4	-20						Out		No												100	Yes		830	*

Total:							62.4	%	3.9	%	8	10	11	11	11	11	11	9	8	6	4	2.0	%	6,482,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dynamo 2 Sounders 1	+0.8
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	+0.1
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	+0.1
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	-0.1
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	-0.0
Galaxy 1 FC Dallas 2	+0.0
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	+0.0

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	-0.1
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	+0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	-0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	-0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2	+0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	+0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

77	-97						100
76		22	-	6	-	3	98		2
75		22	-	5	-	4	99	1
74		22	-	4	-	5	100
73		21	-	6	-	4	99	0	1
72		21	-	5	-	5	99	0	0
71		20	-	7	-	4	99	1	0
70		20	-	6	-	5	98	1	1
69		20	-	5	-	6	98	1	1
68		19	-	7	-	5	96	2	2
67		19	-	6	-	6	95	3	2		0
66		18	-	8	-	5	92	4	4		0
65		18	-	7	-	6	88	6	5		0
64		18	-	6	-	7	83	9	8	0	0		0
63		17	-	8	-	6	76	12	12	0	0		0
62		17	-	7	-	7	67	16	16	0	1		0		0
61		17	-	6	-	8	57	20	21	0	2		0
60		16	-	8	-	7	45	24	26	1	3	0	0
59		16	-	7	-	8	33	27	32	2	6	0	0		0
58		15	-	9	-	7	22	28	35	5	9	0	1		0
57		15	-	8	-	8	13	27	35	8	14	0	2	0	0		0
56		15	-	7	-	9	7	24	31	14	20	1	4	0	0		0
55		14	-	9	-	8	3	19	23	19	25	3	7	0	1		0		0
54		14	-	8	-	9	1	12	14	23	27	7	12	0	2	0	0		0
53		14	-	7	-	10	0	7	7	23	24	13	19	1	5	0	0	0	0
52		13	-	9	-	9	0	4	2	18	17	20	23	5	9	0	1	0	0	0
51		13	-	8	-	10	0	2	1	12	9	23	23	11	15	1	4	0	0	0
50		13	-	7	-	11	0	1	0	7	3	21	17	19	21	4	8	0	1	0	0
49		12	-	9	-	10		0	0	3	1	14	8	24	21	11	14	1	3	0	0
48		12	-	8	-	11		0		1	0	8	3	22	15	20	19	4	7	1	0	0
47		12	-	7	-	12		0		0	0	3	0	15	7	25	19	12	13	4	1	0	0
46		11	-	9	-	11		0		0		1	0	8	2	23	13	22	18	10	3	0	0	0
45		11	-	8	-	12				0		0	0	3	0	15	5	27	17	18	10	3	1	0	0	0
44		10	-	10	-	11				0		0		1	0	8	1	23	11	21	20	10	3	1	0	0
43		10	-	9	-	12				0		0		0	0	3	0	16	5	15	24	21	11	3	1	0	0
42		10	-	8	-	13						0		0		1	0	8	1	7	19	27	22	10	3	0	0
41		9	-	10	-	12						0		0		0	0	4	0	2	10	22	28	21	9	2	0	0
40		9	-	9	-	13								0		0		1	0	1	4	13	25	29	19	7	1	0
39		9	-	8	-	14								0		0		0	0	0	1	5	16	28	29	16	4	0
38		8	-	10	-	13										0		0	0	0	0	2	8	21	32	26	11	2
37		8	-	9	-	14												0		0	0	0	3	12	27	33	20	4
36		8	-	8	-	15												0				0	1	6	19	35	30	10
35		7	-	10	-	14												0			0	0	0	2	12	30	38	17
34		7	-	9	-	15																0	0	1	6	23	42	28
33		7	-	8	-	16																0	0	0	3	16	42	40
32		6	-	10	-	15																	0	0	1	9	38	52
31		6	-	9	-	16																		0	0	6	31	63
30		6	-	8	-	17																			0	3	25	72
29		5	-	10	-	16																			0	1	18	81
28		5	-	9	-	17																				1	12	87
27		5	-	8	-	18																				0	9	91
26		4	-	10	-	17																				0	6	94
25		4	-	9	-	18																					4	96
24		4	-	8	-	19																					2	98
23		3	-	10	-	18																					1	99
22		3	-	9	-	19																					0	100
21		3	-	8	-	20																					1	99
4	-20																											100

Total:							4	4	5	5	5	6	5	6	5	6	5	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	2