Real Salt Lake Playoff Chances 2017

Tied Red Bulls 0-0, playoff odds down 2.5 to 16.3%

2 points 0-2-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	-4.4		-1.1		+0.9		-0.3
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	-0.6						-0.0
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	-0.5						-0.0
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	+0.4						+0.0
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	-0.2
Galaxy 1 FC Dallas 2	*-0.1
Dynamo 2 Sounders 1	*-0.1
DC United 0 Sporting KC 0	*-0.1
Crew 1 Fire 1			+0.1

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	-4.7		-1.2		+1.0		-0.4
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	-0.6						-0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	+0.4						+0.0
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	+0.4		+0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	-0.2		-0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2	*+0.1
Union 2 Toronto FC 2			+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando					+0.2*-0.1-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Real Salt Lake finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

67	-92						In		Yes		100											No		840	*
66		19	-	7	-	4	In		90.1	%	99	1										No		91	*
65		19	-	6	-	5	In		92.7		97	3										No		165	*
64		19	-	5	-	6	In		81.6		92	8										No		310	*
63		18	-	7	-	5	In		78.1		89	10	1									No		557	*
62		18	-	6	-	6	In		69.8		85	15	1									No		910	*
61		18	-	5	-	7	In		60.2		80	19	1									No		1,568	*
60		17	-	7	-	6	In		47.4		71	26	3	0								No		2,486	*
59		17	-	6	-	7	In		35.5		64	32	4	0								No		3,836	*
58		16	-	8	-	6	In		24.3		54	38	8	0	0							No		5,888	*
57		16	-	7	-	7	In		14.7		43	43	12	1	0							No		8,847	*
56		16	-	6	-	8	In		8.0		33	45	19	3	0							No		12,966	*
55		15	-	8	-	7	In		3.4		23	43	26	7	1	0						No		18,903	*
54		15	-	7	-	8	100.0	%	1.2		15	38	33	12	2	0	0					No		26,250	*
53		15	-	6	-	9	100.0		0.3		9	31	37	19	4	0	0					No		36,756	*
52		14	-	8	-	8	99.9		0.0		4	22	37	27	9	1	0	0				No		49,707	*
51		14	-	7	-	9	99.5		0.0		2	13	32	33	16	4	0	0	0			No		65,123	*
50		14	-	6	-	10	98.5		No		1	7	24	35	24	8	1	0	0			No		84,755	*
49		13	-	8	-	9	95.9		No		0	3	15	31	31	16	4	0	0			No		108,629	*
48		13	-	7	-	10	89.7		No		0	1	7	23	34	25	9	1	0	0		No		135,428	*
47		12	-	9	-	9	79.0		No		0	0	3	14	30	32	17	4	0	0		No		164,577	*
46		12	-	8	-	10	63.2		No		0	0	1	7	22	34	26	9	1	0	0	No		196,995	*
45		12	-	7	-	11	44.9		No			0	0	3	13	29	33	18	4	0	0	No		230,891	*
44		11	-	9	-	10	27.8		No		0	0	0	1	6	21	34	27	9	1	0	No		264,858	*
43		11	-	8	-	11	14.7		No				0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0	No		297,479	*
42		11	-	7	-	12	6.6		No				0	0	1	6	21	36	27	8	1	0.0	%	326,863	*
41		10	-	9	-	11	2.5		No					0	0	2	13	32	35	15	2	0.0		352,218	*
40		10	-	8	-	12	0.8		No					0	0	1	7	25	39	24	5	0.1		372,394	*
39		10	-	7	-	13	0.2		No						0	0	3	17	38	33	9	0.6		383,504	*
38		9	-	9	-	12	0.1		No						0	0	1	10	33	41	15	2.1		386,040	*
37		9	-	8	-	13	0.0		No							0	0	5	25	45	24	5.5		381,863	*
36		9	-	7	-	14	0.0		No							0	0	2	18	46	33	11.6		367,370	*
35		8	-	9	-	13	0.0		No							0	0	1	12	43	44	20.3		346,929	*
34		8	-	8	-	14	Out		No								0	0	7	38	54	31.4		320,268	*
33		8	-	7	-	15	Out		No								0	0	4	32	64	43.4		289,181	*
32		7	-	9	-	14	Out		No								0	0	2	26	72	55.1		253,700	*
31		7	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	1	20	79	65.9		217,172	*
30		7	-	7	-	16	Out		No									0	1	14	85	75.1		182,571	*
29		6	-	9	-	15	Out		No										0	10	89	82.4		148,815	*
28		6	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	7	93	88.0		117,820	*
27		6	-	7	-	17	Out		No										0	5	95	92.0		91,944	*
26		5	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	3	97	94.8		69,439	*
25		5	-	8	-	17	Out		No										0	2	98	96.7		50,721	*
24		5	-	7	-	18	Out		No										0	1	99	98.0		35,815	*
23		4	-	9	-	17	Out		No											1	99	98.8		24,606	*
22		4	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	100	99.4		16,641	*
21		4	-	7	-	19	Out		No											0	100	99.6		10,931	*
20		3	-	9	-	18	Out		No											0	100	99.7		6,739	*
19		3	-	8	-	19	Out		No											0	100	99.8		4,124	*
18		3	-	7	-	20	Out		No											0	100	99.9		2,353	*
2	-17						Out		No												100	99.9		3,372	*

Total:							16.3	%	0.2	%	1	1	2	3	4	6	8	11	15	21	29	20.4	%	6,482,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Lottery seed
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	+0.7
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	+0.1
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	+0.0
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	-0.0
Timbers 5 Minnesota 1	+0.0
Galaxy 1 FC Dallas 2	+0.0

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	+0.8
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	+0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0	-0.1
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	-0.0
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2	+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2	-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

67	-92						100
66		19	-	7	-	4	90	9	1
65		19	-	6	-	5	93	4	3
64		19	-	5	-	6	82	11	8
63		18	-	7	-	5	78	11	10		1
62		18	-	6	-	6	70	15	14	0	1
61		18	-	5	-	7	60	20	19	0	1
60		17	-	7	-	6	47	24	26	1	3		0
59		17	-	6	-	7	35	28	30	2	4		0
58		16	-	8	-	6	24	30	34	4	8	0	0		0
57		16	-	7	-	7	15	29	36	8	12	0	1	0	0
56		16	-	6	-	8	8	25	32	13	18	1	3		0
55		15	-	8	-	7	3	20	25	19	24	2	7	0	1		0
54		15	-	7	-	8	1	14	16	22	27	6	11	0	2	0	0		0
53		15	-	6	-	9	0	8	8	23	25	12	17	1	4	0	0		0
52		14	-	8	-	8	0	4	3	19	18	19	23	4	9	0	1		0	0
51		14	-	7	-	9	0	2	1	13	9	22	23	10	15	1	4	0	0	0	0
50		14	-	6	-	10		1	0	7	3	20	17	17	21	3	8	0	1	0	0
49		13	-	8	-	9		0	0	3	1	14	9	22	22	10	15	1	4	0	0
48		13	-	7	-	10		0	0	1	0	7	3	20	15	18	20	4	9	2	0	0
47		12	-	9	-	9		0		0	0	3	0	14	7	23	20	12	15	5	1	0	0
46		12	-	8	-	10		0		0		1	0	7	2	20	13	21	20	12	4	1	0	0
45		12	-	7	-	11				0		0	0	3	0	13	5	24	19	21	12	4	1	0	0
44		11	-	9	-	10		0		0		0		1	0	6	1	19	11	23	22	12	4	1	0	0
43		11	-	8	-	11						0		0	0	2	0	12	4	15	25	23	12	4	1	0	0
42		11	-	7	-	12						0		0		1	0	6	1	7	18	27	24	12	4	1	0	0
41		10	-	9	-	11								0		0	0	2	0	2	9	21	28	23	11	3	0	0
40		10	-	8	-	12								0		0		1	0	0	3	11	23	30	22	9	2	0
39		10	-	7	-	13										0		0	0	0	1	4	14	27	30	18	5	1
38		9	-	9	-	12										0		0		0	0	1	6	18	31	28	13	2
37		9	-	8	-	13												0		0	0	0	2	10	25	34	23	6
36		9	-	7	-	14												0			0	0	1	4	17	34	33	12
35		8	-	9	-	13												0				0	0	2	10	28	40	20
34		8	-	8	-	14																0	0	0	5	21	43	31
33		8	-	7	-	15																	0	0	2	13	41	43
32		7	-	9	-	14																	0	0	1	8	36	55
31		7	-	8	-	15																		0	0	4	29	66
30		7	-	7	-	16																			0	2	23	75
29		6	-	9	-	15																			0	1	17	82
28		6	-	8	-	16																			0	0	12	88
27		6	-	7	-	17																			0	0	8	92
26		5	-	9	-	16																				0	5	95
25		5	-	8	-	17																				0	3	97
24		5	-	7	-	18																				0	2	98
23		4	-	9	-	17																				0	1	99
22		4	-	8	-	18																					1	99
21		4	-	7	-	19																					0	100
20		3	-	9	-	18																					0	100
19		3	-	8	-	19																					0	100
18		3	-	7	-	20																					0	100
17		2	-	9	-	19																					0	100
16		2	-	8	-	20																					0	100
2	-15																											100

Total:							0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	3	2	4	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	11	14	20