DC United Playoff Chances 2017

Did not play, playoff odds down 2 to 24.3%

1 points 0-1-2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
DC United 0 Sporting KC 0	-4.3		-1.1		+0.9		-0.3
Crew 1 Fire 1	+0.4
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	+0.4		*-0.1				+0.0
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	+0.4						+0.0
Orlando 1 NYCFC 0	-0.2
Atlanta 1 Red Bulls 2	*-0.2
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	*+0.1

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Supporters Shield	100.0*	Wooden Spoon	100.0*	Average seed
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	-0.6						-0.0
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	-0.6						-0.0
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	+0.5						+0.0
Impact 2 Sounders 2	+0.5				*-0.1		+0.0
Union 2 Toronto FC 2	+0.3		+0.1
Sporting KC 0 FC Dallas 0			+0.1
Earthquakes 3 Whitecaps 2			-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Revolution vs Orlando	-0.2+0.4*+0.1				+0.1*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the DC United finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Supporters		Chance will finish regular season at seed											Wooden
TP		W	-	D	-	L	playoffs		Shield		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	Spoon		Count

69	-94						In		99.9	%	100											No		919	*
68		21	-	4	-	6	In		98.2		99	1										No		166	*
67		20	-	6	-	5	In		95.7		99	1										No		301	*
66		20	-	5	-	6	In		93.4		97	3										No		497	*
65		19	-	7	-	5	In		89.5		96	4										No		846	*
64		19	-	6	-	6	In		84.6		94	6	0									No		1,386	*
63		19	-	5	-	7	In		77.8		91	9	0									No		2,320	*
62		18	-	7	-	6	In		68.7		86	13	1									No		3,701	*
61		18	-	6	-	7	In		59.5		81	18	1									No		5,509	*
60		17	-	8	-	6	In		47.7		74	24	2	0								No		8,492	*
59		17	-	7	-	7	In		35.7		65	30	4	0								No		12,335	*
58		17	-	6	-	8	In		24.0		55	37	8	1	0							No		17,910	*
57		16	-	8	-	7	In		14.8		45	41	13	1	0							No		25,031	*
56		16	-	7	-	8	In		7.6		34	44	19	3	0	0						No		34,245	*
55		16	-	6	-	9	In		3.2		23	43	26	7	1	0						No		47,097	*
54		15	-	8	-	8	100.0	%	1.1		15	38	33	12	2	0	0					No		62,244	*
53		15	-	7	-	9	100.0		0.2		8	29	37	20	5	1	0	0				No		80,948	*
52		14	-	9	-	8	99.8		0.0		4	20	35	28	11	2	0	0				No		102,953	*
51		14	-	8	-	9	99.2		0.0		2	12	29	33	18	5	1	0	0			No		128,648	*
50		14	-	7	-	10	97.6		No		1	6	20	33	27	11	2	0	0			No		158,294	*
49		13	-	9	-	9	93.1		No		0	2	11	28	32	19	6	1	0	0		No		188,546	*
48		13	-	8	-	10	84.1		No		0	1	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0	0	No		221,551	*
47		13	-	7	-	11	69.5		No		0	0	2	10	25	33	22	7	1	0	0	No		254,183	*
46		12	-	9	-	10	50.7		No		0	0	1	4	16	30	30	15	4	0	0	No		287,288	*
45		12	-	8	-	11	31.7		No			0	0	1	8	23	33	25	9	1	0	No		316,233	*
44		12	-	7	-	12	16.8		No			0	0	0	3	13	29	32	17	4	0	No		342,123	*
43		11	-	9	-	11	7.5		No				0	0	1	6	21	34	27	9	1	No		360,231	*
42		11	-	8	-	12	2.8		No					0	0	3	13	30	34	17	3	No		374,595	*
41		11	-	7	-	13	0.9		No					0	0	1	6	22	37	27	6	0.0	%	380,900	*
40		10	-	9	-	12	0.2		No						0	0	3	14	35	36	12	0.1		377,360	*
39		10	-	8	-	13	0.0		No						0	0	1	8	28	43	20	0.4		366,960	*
38		9	-	10	-	12	0.0		No						0	0	0	4	20	45	31	1.6		349,621	*
37		9	-	9	-	13	0.0		No							0	0	2	13	43	42	4.4		325,548	*
36		9	-	8	-	14	Out		No								0	1	8	38	54	9.5		295,202	*
35		8	-	10	-	13	Out		No								0	0	4	31	64	17.1		263,016	*
34		8	-	9	-	14	Out		No								0	0	2	24	73	27.2		227,642	*
33		8	-	8	-	15	Out		No									0	1	18	81	38.6		194,293	*
32		7	-	10	-	14	Out		No									0	0	13	87	50.3		160,160	*
31		7	-	9	-	15	Out		No									0	0	9	91	60.8		129,718	*
30		7	-	8	-	16	Out		No									0	0	6	94	70.7		102,480	*
29		6	-	10	-	15	Out		No										0	4	96	78.6		78,786	*
28		6	-	9	-	16	Out		No										0	2	98	84.8		58,612	*
27		6	-	8	-	17	Out		No										0	1	99	89.6		43,421	*
26		5	-	10	-	16	Out		No											1	99	93.2		30,340	*
25		5	-	9	-	17	Out		No											0	100	95.5		21,316	*
24		5	-	8	-	18	Out		No											0	100	97.1		14,283	*
23		4	-	10	-	17	Out		No											0	100	98.2		9,210	*
22		4	-	9	-	18	Out		No											0	100	99.1		5,781	*
21		4	-	8	-	19	Out		No											0	100	99.5		3,542	*
20		4	-	7	-	20	Out		No											0	100	99.4		2,074	*
1	-19						Out		No												100	99.9		3,351	*

Total:							24.3	%	0.5	%	1	2	3	4	6	7	9	11	13	17	26	10.8	%	6,482,208

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/3	100.0*	Lottery seed
DC United 0 Sporting KC 0	+0.7
Crew 1 Fire 1	-0.1
Rapids 1 Revolution 0	-0.0
Orlando 1 NYCFC 0	+0.0
Whitecaps 0 Union 0	-0.0
Earthquakes 1 Impact 0	-0.0
Real Salt Lake 0 Toronto FC 0	-0.0

Week of 3/11	100.0*	Lottery seed
Red Bulls 1 Rapids 0	+0.1
Fire 2 Real Salt Lake 0	+0.1
Impact 2 Sounders 2	-0.1
Union 2 Toronto FC 2	-0.1
Dynamo 3 Crew 1	-0.0

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22

70	-94						100
69		21	-	5	-	5	99	1
68		21	-	4	-	6	98	1	1
67		20	-	6	-	5	96	3	1
66		20	-	5	-	6	93	4	3
65		19	-	7	-	5	89	6	4
64		19	-	6	-	6	85	9	6	0	0
63		19	-	5	-	7	78	13	9	0	0
62		18	-	7	-	6	69	17	13	0	1
61		18	-	6	-	7	60	22	17	0	1
60		17	-	8	-	6	48	26	23	1	2		0
59		17	-	7	-	7	36	30	28	2	4	0	0
58		17	-	6	-	8	24	31	32	4	8	0	1		0
57		16	-	8	-	7	15	30	34	8	12	0	1	0	0
56		16	-	7	-	8	8	26	31	13	18	1	3	0	0		0
55		16	-	6	-	9	3	20	24	19	24	2	7	0	1		0
54		15	-	8	-	8	1	14	16	22	27	6	12	0	2		0		0
53		15	-	7	-	9	0	8	8	22	25	12	19	1	5	0	1		0	0
52		14	-	9	-	8	0	4	3	17	18	17	24	4	11	0	2	0	0	0
51		14	-	8	-	9	0	1	1	11	9	20	24	9	18	1	5	0	1	0	0
50		14	-	7	-	10		1	0	6	3	17	18	15	24	3	11	0	2	0	0
49		13	-	9	-	9		0	0	2	1	11	9	18	24	8	19	1	6	1	0	0
48		13	-	8	-	10		0		1	0	5	3	16	17	15	25	3	13	3	0	0	0
47		13	-	7	-	11		0		0	0	2	0	9	7	17	24	9	21	8	1	0	0
46		12	-	9	-	10		0		0	0	1	0	4	2	14	15	15	26	17	5	1	0	0
45		12	-	8	-	11				0		0	0	1	0	7	6	16	23	27	14	4	1	0	0	0
44		12	-	7	-	12				0		0		0	0	3	2	12	14	27	25	13	4	1	0	0
43		11	-	9	-	11						0		0	0	1	0	6	5	18	29	24	12	3	1	0	0
42		11	-	8	-	12								0		0	0	2	1	8	21	29	23	11	3	0	0
41		11	-	7	-	13								0		0	0	1	0	3	10	23	29	22	10	2	0	0
40		10	-	9	-	12										0		0	0	1	4	12	25	29	20	7	1	0
39		10	-	8	-	13										0		0	0	0	1	5	15	28	29	16	5	0
38		9	-	10	-	12										0		0	0	0	0	1	7	20	32	27	11	2
37		9	-	9	-	13												0		0	0	0	3	12	27	34	20	4
36		9	-	8	-	14														0	0	0	1	5	19	35	30	10
35		8	-	10	-	13																0	0	2	11	31	39	17
34		8	-	9	-	14																0	0	1	6	23	43	27
33		8	-	8	-	15																	0	0	3	16	43	39
32		7	-	10	-	14																	0	0	1	10	39	50
31		7	-	9	-	15																		0	0	6	33	61
30		7	-	8	-	16																		0	0	3	26	71
29		6	-	10	-	15																			0	1	20	79
28		6	-	9	-	16																			0	1	14	85
27		6	-	8	-	17																			0	0	10	90
26		5	-	10	-	16																				0	7	93
25		5	-	9	-	17																				0	4	95
24		5	-	8	-	18																				0	3	97
23		4	-	10	-	17																				0	2	98
22		4	-	9	-	18																					1	99
21		4	-	8	-	19																					0	100
20		4	-	7	-	20																					1	99
19		3	-	9	-	19																					0	100
1	-18																											100

Total:							1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	3	4	3	5	6	6	6	7	8	8	9	10	11