Windsor Spitfires Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Plymouth 1-2, playoff odds down 0.01 to 99.97%

30 points 15 9-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-0.1		-0.3		-0.2
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0			-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Saginaw vs Windsor			-0.1-0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1		-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.2
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury					-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Windsor finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

109	-118						In		Yes		100										622	*
108		38	4		-	2	In		79.2	%	83	17									24	*
107		37	4		-	3	In		83.3		85	15									66	*
106		36	4		-	4	In		78.4		80	20									167	*
105		36	5		-	3	In		69.2		72	27	1								347	*
104		35	5		-	4	In		55.6		59	39	2								747	*
103		35	6		-	3	In		46.2		51	47	2								1,447	*
102		34	6		-	4	In		34.7		40	57	3	0							2,698	*
101		34	7		-	3	In		25.2		31	64	4	1	0						4,842	*
100		33	7		-	4	In		16.8		21	71	6	2	0						7,854	*
99		33	8		-	3	In		9.6		13	76	7	3	0						12,972	*
98		32	8		-	4	In		5.2		8	76	9	6	1						20,616	*
97		32	9		-	3	In		2.6		4	75	10	9	2	0					30,646	*
96		31	9		-	4	In		1.1		2	71	10	13	4	0					44,611	*
95		31	10		-	3	In		0.4		1	65	8	18	8	0					61,922	*
94		30	10		-	4	In		0.1		0	58	7	21	13	0					84,611	*
93		29	10		-	5	In		0.0		0	50	5	24	21	0					110,625	*
92		29	11		-	4	In		0.0		0	42	3	24	29	0					141,064	*
91		28	11		-	5	In		0.0		0	35	2	23	39	1					173,789	*
90		28	12		-	4	In		0.0		0	27	1	20	49	2					206,435	*
89		27	12		-	5	In		No		0	21	1	16	58	4					239,992	*
88		27	13		-	4	In		No		0	15	0	13	65	7	0				269,461	*
87		26	13		-	5	In		No			11	0	9	69	11	0				294,750	*
86		26	14		-	4	In		No			7	0	6	70	17	0				312,240	*
85		25	14		-	5	In		No			5	0	4	68	24	0				321,086	*
84		25	15		-	4	In		No			3	0	2	64	31	0				320,455	*
83		24	15		-	5	In		No			2	0	1	58	39	0				313,375	*
82		24	16		-	4	In		No			1	0	1	50	48	0				297,388	*
81		23	16		-	5	In		No			0	0	0	43	56	1				274,367	*
80		23	17		-	4	In		No			0		0	35	63	2				246,859	*
79		22	17		-	5	In		No			0		0	28	69	3	0			216,450	*
78		22	18		-	4	In		No			0		0	22	74	4	0			183,751	*
77		21	18		-	5	In		No			0		0	16	78	6	0			152,489	*
76		21	19		-	4	In		No			0		0	11	79	10	0			123,012	*
75		20	19		-	5	In		No			0		0	8	78	14	0			96,898	*
74		20	20		-	4	In		No						5	76	19	0			74,404	*
73		19	20		-	5	100.0	%	No						3	72	24	1	0		55,687	*
72		19	21		-	4	100.0		No						2	66	31	2	0		40,446	*
71		18	21		-	5	100.0		No						1	58	38	3	0		28,718	*
70		18	22		-	4	99.9		No						1	49	44	6	0		19,870	*
69		17	22		-	5	99.7		No						0	40	50	10	0		13,087	*
68		17	23		-	4	99.3		No						0	32	53	15	1	0	8,695	*
67		16	23		-	5	98.4		No							23	53	22	2	0	5,668	*
66		16	24		-	4	96.4		No							17	51	29	3	0	3,270	*
65		15	24		-	5	93.0		No							10	45	38	7	0	2,042	*
64		15	25		-	4	88.8		No							5	41	43	11	0	1,235	*
63		14	25		-	5	82.0		No							4	29	49	17	1	711	*
62		14	26		-	4	73.4		No							2	22	50	23	4	425	*
61		13	26		-	5	58.7		No							0	13	45	37	4	208	*
60		13	27		-	4	49.0		No							1	9	39	42	9	104	*
59		12	27		-	5	41.1		No								2	39	50	9	56	*
58		12	28		-	4	26.5		No								3	24	59	15	34	*
57		11	28		-	5	18.2		No									18	27	55	11	*
56		10	28		-	6	11.1		No									11	44	44	9	*
30	-55						Out		No											100	602	*

Total:							100.0	%	0.2	%	0	12	1	7	43	33	3	0	0	0	4,823,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	+0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Saginaw vs Windsor	+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.4
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

109	-118						100
108		38	4		-	2	79	4	17
107		37	4		-	3	83	2	15
106		36	4		-	4	78	2	20
105		36	5		-	3	69	3	27		1
104		35	5		-	4	56	3	39		2
103		35	6		-	3	46	5	47		2
102		34	6		-	4	35	5	57	0	3		0
101		34	7		-	3	25	5	64	0	4		1		0
100		33	7		-	4	17	4	71	0	6		2		0
99		33	8		-	3	10	3	76	0	7		3		0
98		32	8		-	4	5	3	76	1	9		6		1
97		32	9		-	3	3	2	74	1	10		9		2		0
96		31	9		-	4	1	1	69	2	10	0	13		4		0
95		31	10		-	3	0	1	62	3	8	0	18		8		0
94		30	10		-	4	0	0	55	4	7	0	21		13		0
93		29	10		-	5	0	0	45	5	5	0	24		21		0
92		29	11		-	4	0	0	36	6	3	0	24		29		0
91		28	11		-	5	0	0	28	7	2	0	23		39		1
90		28	12		-	4	0	0	20	7	1	0	20		49		2
89		27	12		-	5		0	14	7	1	0	16		58		4
88		27	13		-	4		0	9	6	0	0	13	0	65		7		0
87		26	13		-	5			5	5	0	0	9	0	69		11		0
86		26	14		-	4			3	4	0	0	6	0	70		17		0
85		25	14		-	5			2	3	0	0	4	0	68		24		0
84		25	15		-	4			1	2	0	0	2	0	64	0	31		0
83		24	15		-	5			0	1	0	0	1	0	58	0	39		0
82		24	16		-	4			0	1	0	0	1	0	50	0	48		0
81		23	16		-	5			0	0	0	0	0	0	43	0	56		1
80		23	17		-	4			0	0			0	0	35	0	63		2
79		22	17		-	5			0	0			0	0	28	0	69	0	3		0
78		22	18		-	4			0	0			0	0	21	0	74	0	4		0
77		21	18		-	5			0	0			0	0	15	0	78	0	6		0
76		21	19		-	4				0			0	0	11	1	79	0	10		0
75		20	19		-	5				0			0	0	7	1	78	0	14	0	0
74		20	20		-	4									4	1	75	1	19	0	0
73		19	20		-	5									2	1	69	2	24	0	1		0
72		19	21		-	4									1	1	61	5	30	0	2		0
71		18	21		-	5									0	1	50	8	38	0	3		0
70		18	22		-	4									0	0	38	11	43	1	6		0
69		17	22		-	5									0	0	27	14	47	3	10	0	0
68		17	23		-	4									0	0	16	16	47	6	15	0	1	0
67		16	23		-	5											9	15	42	11	21	0	2	0
66		16	24		-	4											4	13	35	16	28	1	3	0
65		15	24		-	5											1	9	23	22	35	4	7	0
64		15	25		-	4											0	5	16	25	36	7	11	1
63		14	25		-	5											0	4	7	23	35	14	17	1
62		14	26		-	4												2	3	19	28	22	22	4	0
61		13	26		-	5												0	1	13	23	22	32	9
60		13	27		-	4												1		9	13	26	36	14	1
59		12	27		-	5														2	9	30	30	25	4
58		12	28		-	4														3		24	38	29	6
57		11	28		-	5																18	18	36	18	9
56		10	28		-	6																11	11	33	33	11
55		11	30		-	3																		100
30	-54																									100

Total:							0	0	9	3	1	0	7	0	43	0	33	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0