Mississauga Steelheads Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Kingston 5-7, playoff odds down 1.2 to 94.8%

28 points 13 12-2

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	-1.0		No		-0.2
Ottawa 5 Niagara 2	+0.2

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Belleville vs Mississauga	-1.9-0.4-0.3+1.4+1.5+1.7		NoNoNoNoNo+0.0		-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1				+0.0*-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Mississauga finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

96	-110						In		98.7	%	100										601	*
95		32	6		-	3	In		No		60	40									10	*
94		31	6		-	4	In		No		40	47	13								15	*
93		30	6		-	5	In		No		45	41	14								44	*
92		30	7		-	4	In		No		33	49	18								76	*
91		30	8		-	3	In		No		21	64	16								159	*
90		29	8		-	4	In		No		14	56	29	1							307	*
89		28	8		-	5	In		No		11	55	33	1							621	*
88		28	9		-	4	In		No		6	55	38	2							1,138	*
87		27	9		-	5	In		No		3	48	46	3							2,085	*
86		27	10		-	4	In		No		2	42	50	6	0						3,706	*
85		26	10		-	5	In		No		1	35	53	11	0						6,314	*
84		25	10		-	6	In		No		1	29	55	15	0						10,164	*
83		25	11		-	5	In		No		0	23	55	21	0						15,881	*
82		24	11		-	6	In		No		0	18	53	28	1						24,050	*
81		24	12		-	5	In		No		0	14	49	36	2	0					35,096	*
80		23	12		-	6	In		No		0	10	43	44	3	0					50,089	*
79		23	13		-	5	In		No		0	7	36	51	6	0	0				69,088	*
78		22	13		-	6	In		No			4	29	56	10	0					92,060	*
77		22	14		-	5	In		No			3	22	58	16	1	0				119,870	*
76		21	14		-	6	In		No		0	2	16	58	23	2	0				150,447	*
75		21	15		-	5	In		No			1	11	54	30	4	0				184,174	*
74		20	15		-	6	In		No			0	7	48	38	7	0	0			218,627	*
73		20	16		-	5	In		No			0	4	39	44	12	1	0			250,517	*
72		19	16		-	6	In		No			0	2	30	48	18	2	0			280,006	*
71		19	17		-	5	In		No			0	1	21	48	26	4	0			304,531	*
70		18	17		-	6	100.0	%	No			0	0	14	44	34	7	0	0		321,821	*
69		18	18		-	5	100.0		No			0	0	8	38	41	12	1	0		329,596	*
68		17	18		-	6	100.0		No			0	0	4	29	45	19	2	0		327,111	*
67		17	19		-	5	99.9		No			0	0	2	21	45	27	4	0	0	316,198	*
66		16	19		-	6	99.7		No			0	0	1	13	41	36	8	0	0	296,223	*
65		16	20		-	5	99.0		No				0	0	8	35	43	14	1	0	269,851	*
64		15	20		-	6	97.6		No					0	4	26	46	22	2	0	240,496	*
63		15	21		-	5	95.0		No					0	2	18	45	31	5	0	205,491	*
62		14	21		-	6	90.1		No					0	1	11	40	39	9	0	171,774	*
61		14	22		-	5	83.2		No						0	6	32	45	16	1	139,697	*
60		13	22		-	6	73.5		No						0	3	23	47	24	3	109,768	*
59		13	23		-	5	61.9		No						0	1	15	45	33	5	83,735	*
58		12	23		-	6	49.8		No						0	0	9	40	41	10	61,932	*
57		12	24		-	5	37.8		No							0	5	33	47	15	44,387	*
56		12	25		-	4	26.6		No							0	2	24	51	23	30,477	*
55		11	25		-	5	17.6		No							0	1	17	50	32	20,902	*
54		11	26		-	4	11.5		No							0	1	11	48	41	13,680	*
53		10	26		-	5	7.0		No								0	7	42	51	8,572	*
52		10	27		-	4	3.8		No								0	4	36	61	5,272	*
51		9	27		-	5	1.8		No									2	29	69	3,093	*
50		9	28		-	4	1.2		No									1	24	75	1,703	*
49		8	28		-	5	0.3		No									0	16	83	945	*
48		8	29		-	4	0.2		No									0	12	88	486	*
47		7	29		-	5	Out		No										9	91	255	*
46		7	30		-	4	Out		No										7	93	125	*
45		6	30		-	5	Out		No										4	96	54	*
44		6	31		-	4	Out		No										6	94	18	*
43		5	31		-	5	Out		No											100	15	*
42		6	33		-	2	Out		No										20	80	5	*
28	-41						Out		No											100	602	*

Total:							94.8	%	0.0	%	0	1	5	17	23	22	17	10	4	1	4,823,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Kingston 7 Mississauga 5	+0.4

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Belleville vs Mississauga	+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury	-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

110		41	0		-	0	99	1
96	-98							100
95		32	6		-	3		60	20	20
94		31	6		-	4		40	20	27	7	7
93		30	6		-	5		45	14	27	2	11
92		30	7		-	4		33	18	30	1	17
91		30	8		-	3		21	22	42	1	15
90		29	8		-	4		14	13	44	0	29		1
89		28	8		-	5		11	9	46		33		1
88		28	9		-	4		6	5	49		38	0	1
87		27	9		-	5		3	3	45		46	0	3
86		27	10		-	4		2	2	40		50	0	5	0
85		26	10		-	5		1	1	35	0	53	0	10	0	0
84		25	10		-	6		1	0	29		55	0	15	0	0
83		25	11		-	5		0	0	23		55	0	21	0	0
82		24	11		-	6		0	0	18		53	0	28	0	1
81		24	12		-	5		0	0	14		49	0	36	0	1	0
80		23	12		-	6		0		10		43	0	44	0	3	0	0
79		23	13		-	5		0		7		36	0	51	0	6	0	0	0
78		22	13		-	6			0	4		29	0	56	0	10	0	0
77		22	14		-	5				3		22		58	0	16	0	1	0
76		21	14		-	6		0		2		16		58	0	22	0	1	0	0
75		21	15		-	5				1		11		54	0	30	1	3	0	0
74		20	15		-	6				0		7		48	0	38	1	6	0	0	0
73		20	16		-	5				0		4		39	0	44	1	11	1	0	0	0
72		19	16		-	6				0		2		30	0	48	1	17	1	1	0
71		19	17		-	5				0		1		21	0	48	1	25	2	1	0	0
70		18	17		-	6				0		0		14	0	44	1	33	4	3	0	0	0
69		18	18		-	5				0		0		8		38	0	41	5	7	1	0	0
68		17	18		-	6				0		0		4		29	0	45	7	12	2	0	0
67		17	19		-	5				0		0		2		21	0	45	7	20	4	1	0	0
66		16	19		-	6				0		0		1		13	0	41	7	29	6	2	0	0	0
65		16	20		-	5						0		0		8	0	35	5	37	10	5	1	0	0
64		15	20		-	6								0		4	0	26	4	42	12	10	2	0	0
63		15	21		-	5								0		2	0	18	2	43	14	17	4	1	0	0
62		14	21		-	6								0		1		11	1	39	13	26	8	2	0	0
61		14	22		-	5										0		6	0	32	11	34	12	4	1	0
60		13	22		-	6										0		3	0	23	7	40	16	9	2	0
59		13	23		-	5										0		1	0	15	4	41	18	15	4	0
58		12	23		-	6										0		0	0	9	2	38	17	22	10	1
57		12	24		-	5												0	0	5	1	32	15	28	17	3
56		12	25		-	4												0		2	0	24	12	30	25	6
55		11	25		-	5												0		1	0	16	7	29	35	11
54		11	26		-	4												0		1	0	11	5	25	41	19
53		10	26		-	5														0		7	2	19	44	28
52		10	27		-	4														0		4	1	13	43	39
51		9	27		-	5																2	0	8	40	50
50		9	28		-	4																1	0	5	35	59
49		8	28		-	5																0	0	3	30	67
48		8	29		-	4																0		1	18	80
47		7	29		-	5																		0	15	84
46		7	30		-	4																			13	87
45		6	30		-	5																			13	87
44		6	31		-	4																			17	83
43		5	31		-	5																				100
42		6	33		-	2																			20	80
28	-41																									100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	5	0	17	0	23	0	22	3	14	4	6	2	2	1	0