Kitchener Rangers Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Lost to Guelph 0-6, playoff odds down 12.7 to 21.7%

17 points 8 14-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Windsor 1 Plymouth 2	-3.1				-0.1
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	-3.0		No		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Plymouth vs Owen Sound	-0.9-1.8-1.4*-0.2-0.3+1.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Kitchener finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

107		45	0		-	0	In		99.2	%	100		0								599
88		32	6		-	7	In		No					100							1
85	-86						In		No						100						8	*
84		30	8		-	7	In		No						50	50					4	*
83		30	9		-	6	In		No						33	67					15	*
82		29	9		-	7	In		No					2	30	48	20				50	*
81		29	10		-	6	In		No						22	48	30				87	*
80		28	10		-	7	In		No					2	18	43	37				198	*
79		28	11		-	6	In		No						10	46	43	0			327	*
78		27	11		-	7	In		No						6	41	53	1			654	*
77		27	12		-	6	In		No						3	35	59	3			1,113	*
76		26	12		-	7	In		No						2	27	67	4			2,060	*
75		26	13		-	6	In		No						1	20	73	6			3,465	*
74		25	13		-	7	99.9	%	No						0	15	75	10	0		5,716	*
73		25	14		-	6	99.6		No						0	10	74	14	0		8,886	*
72		24	14		-	7	99.5		No						0	7	73	20	1		13,513	*
71		24	15		-	6	98.8		No						0	4	68	27	1		20,400	*
70		23	15		-	7	97.6		No							2	61	34	2	0	29,444	*
69		23	16		-	6	95.3		No						0	1	53	41	5	0	41,688	*
68		22	16		-	7	92.4		No						0	1	44	47	7	0	58,058	*
67		22	17		-	6	88.1		No							0	35	53	12	0	77,349	*
66		21	17		-	7	82.1		No							0	27	55	17	1	100,650	*
65		21	18		-	6	74.3		No							0	19	55	24	1	128,202	*
64		20	18		-	7	65.6		No							0	13	53	32	3	157,111	*
63		20	19		-	6	55.4		No							0	8	47	40	5	189,782	*
62		19	19		-	7	45.2		No							0	5	40	47	8	221,254	*
61		19	20		-	6	35.2		No							0	3	33	52	12	251,747	*
60		18	20		-	7	26.2		No								1	25	55	18	278,001	*
59		18	21		-	6	18.5		No								1	18	56	25	299,816	*
58		17	21		-	7	12.4		No								0	12	54	33	313,371	*
57		17	22		-	6	7.9		No								0	8	50	42	320,958	*
56		16	22		-	7	4.9		No								0	5	44	51	316,877	*
55		16	23		-	6	2.8		No								0	3	38	59	306,303	*
54		15	23		-	7	1.5		No								0	2	31	67	287,553	*
53		15	24		-	6	0.8		No									1	25	74	263,341	*
52		14	24		-	7	0.4		No								0	0	19	80	232,772	*
51		14	25		-	6	0.2		No									0	14	85	200,986	*
50		13	25		-	7	0.1		No									0	11	89	167,973	*
49		13	26		-	6	0.0		No									0	7	93	136,823	*
48		12	26		-	7	0.0		No									0	5	95	108,935	*
47		12	27		-	6	0.0		No									0	3	97	83,342	*
46		11	27		-	7	Out		No										2	98	61,943	*
45		11	28		-	6	0.0		No									0	1	99	44,417	*
44		11	29		-	5	Out		No										1	99	31,194	*
43		10	29		-	6	Out		No										0	100	21,305	*
42		10	30		-	5	Out		No										0	100	13,859	*
41		9	30		-	6	Out		No										0	100	8,860	*
40		9	31		-	5	Out		No										0	100	5,434	*
39		8	31		-	6	Out		No										0	100	3,038	*
17	-38						Out		No											100	4,478	*

Total:							21.7	%	0.0	%	0		0	0	0	0	5	16	33	45	4,823,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

107		45	0		-	0	99	1			0
88		32	6		-	7							100
85	-86														100
84		30	8		-	7									50		50
83		30	9		-	6									33		67
82		29	9		-	7							2		30		48		20
81		29	10		-	6									22		48		30
80		28	10		-	7							2		18		43		37
79		28	11		-	6									10		46		43		0
78		27	11		-	7									6		41		53		1
77		27	12		-	6									3	0	35		59		3
76		26	12		-	7									2		27	0	67		4
75		26	13		-	6									1	0	20		73		6
74		25	13		-	7									0	0	15	0	75	0	10		0
73		25	14		-	6									0	0	10	0	74	0	14		0
72		24	14		-	7									0	0	6	0	73	0	20		1
71		24	15		-	6									0		4	0	67	1	27	0	1
70		23	15		-	7											2	1	60	1	34	0	2	0
69		23	16		-	6										0	1	0	50	3	41	0	5	0
68		22	16		-	7										0	0	0	40	4	47	0	7	0
67		22	17		-	6											0	0	29	6	52	1	12	0
66		21	17		-	7											0	0	19	8	53	2	17	1
65		21	18		-	6											0	0	11	8	51	4	24	1	0
64		20	18		-	7											0	0	6	7	45	8	31	3	0
63		20	19		-	6											0	0	2	6	35	12	39	6	0	0
62		19	19		-	7												0	1	4	25	15	44	10	0	0
61		19	20		-	6												0	0	2	16	17	47	16	1	0
60		18	20		-	7													0	1	9	16	46	24	3	0
59		18	21		-	6													0	1	4	14	41	33	7	1
58		17	21		-	7													0	0	2	10	33	39	13	2
57		17	22		-	6														0	1	7	25	42	21	4
56		16	22		-	7														0	0	5	17	41	30	7
55		16	23		-	6														0	0	3	10	36	38	13
54		15	23		-	7														0	0	2	6	29	43	20
53		15	24		-	6															0	1	3	22	45	29
52		14	24		-	7														0	0	0	1	15	44	40
51		14	25		-	6																0	1	9	40	50
50		13	25		-	7																0	0	6	34	60
49		13	26		-	6																0	0	3	28	69
48		12	26		-	7																0	0	2	21	77
47		12	27		-	6																0	0	1	16	83
46		11	27		-	7																	0	0	11	88
45		11	28		-	6																0	0	0	8	92
44		11	29		-	5																		0	5	95
43		10	29		-	6																		0	3	97
42		10	30		-	5																			2	98
41		9	30		-	6																		0	1	99
40		9	31		-	5																			1	99
39		8	31		-	6																			0	100
38		8	32		-	5																			0	100
37		7	32		-	6																				100
36		7	33		-	5																			0	100
17	-35																									100

Total:							0	0			0		0		0	0	0	0	4	1	10	6	20	20	19	20