Guelph Storm Playoff Chances 2013-2014

Beat Kitchener 6-0, playoff odds unchanged at 99.99%

41 points 19 4-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Guelph 6 Kitchener 0	In		+1.7		+0.1
Oshawa 3 Barrie 5			+1.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Hamilton Spectator Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Sault Ste. Marie vs Sudbury			-0.3-0.3*+0.0+0.4+0.4+0.8

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the Guelph finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Hamilton		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Spectator Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Count

116	-125						In		100.0	%	100										6,223	*
115		36	4		-	2	In		99.9		100		0								5,785	*
114		35	4		-	3	In		99.7		100		0								10,818	*
113		35	5		-	2	In		99.4		99	0	1								18,068	*
112		34	5		-	3	In		98.9		99	0	1								29,251	*
111		34	6		-	2	In		97.9		98	0	2								45,572	*
110		33	6		-	3	In		96.6		97	0	3	0							66,977	*
109		33	7		-	2	In		94.1		95	0	5	0							93,195	*
108		32	7		-	3	In		90.7		92	0	8	0							125,659	*
107		32	8		-	2	In		86.1		87	1	12	0							162,133	*
106		31	8		-	3	In		79.9		82	1	17	0							201,692	*
105		31	9		-	2	In		72.3		75	2	23	0							240,602	*
104		30	9		-	3	In		63.2		67	2	30	1							276,880	*
103		29	9		-	4	In		53.0		58	3	37	2							308,781	*
102		29	10		-	3	In		43.2		49	4	44	3							150,944
		28	9		-	5	In		42.1		48	4	44	4							180,077	*
101		28	10		-	4	In		32.2		38	5	51	6	0						345,645	*
100		28	11		-	3	In		22.6		29	6	56	9							183,874	*
		27	10		-	5	In		22.9		29	5	56	9	0						162,708	*
99		27	11		-	4	In		14.9		21	6	60	14	0						337,881	*
98		27	12		-	3	In		9.3		15	6	61	19	0						140,713
		26	11		-	5	In		8.7		14	6	61	20	0						178,062	*
97		26	12		-	4	In		4.8		9	5	60	26	0						291,449	*
96		26	13		-	3	In		2.5		5	4	56	34	0	0					258,605	*
95		25	13		-	4	In		1.1		3	3	51	42	1	0					224,217	*
94		25	14		-	3	In		0.4		1	2	44	51	1	0					187,040	*
93		24	14		-	4	In		0.1		1	2	37	58	3	0					153,096	*
92		24	15		-	3	In		0.0		0	1	29	64	6	0					120,335	*
91		23	15		-	4	In		0.0		0	1	22	68	10	0					92,507	*
90		23	16		-	3	In		No		0	0	15	68	16	1					69,265	*
89		22	16		-	4	In		No		0	0	11	65	23	1					50,771	*
88		22	17		-	3	In		No			0	7	58	32	3	0				35,726	*
87		21	17		-	4	In		No			0	4	51	40	5	0				24,441	*
86		21	18		-	3	In		No			0	2	42	46	10	0				16,375	*
85		20	18		-	4	In		No				1	32	51	15	0				10,813	*
84		20	19		-	3	In		No				0	23	54	22	0				6,858	*
83		19	19		-	4	In		No				0	16	54	29	1				4,215	*
82		19	20		-	3	In		No				0	11	49	39	1				2,586	*
81		18	20		-	4	In		No					7	43	47	2				1,578	*
80		18	21		-	3	In		No					4	36	55	5				896	*
79		17	21		-	4	In		No					2	27	63	8				474	*
78		17	22		-	3	In		No					1	16	68	14				278	*
77		16	22		-	4	In		No						18	64	18				156	*
76		16	23		-	3	In		No					2	5	70	23				64	*
75		15	23		-	4	In		No						13	62	26				47	*
74		15	24		-	3	In		No							59	41				17	*
73		14	24		-	4	In		No							71	29				7	*
72		13	24		-	5	In		No								100				4	*
71		12	24		-	6	In		No							100					1
41		0	42		-	0	Out		No											100	599

Total:							100.0	%	33.7	%	37	3	39	19	2	0	0			0	4,823,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

118	-125						100
117		37	3		-	2	100	0
116		36	3		-	3	100
115		36	4		-	2	100				0
114		35	4		-	3	100	0			0
113		35	5		-	2	99	0	0		1
112		34	5		-	3	99	0	0		1
111		34	6		-	2	98	0	0		2
110		33	6		-	3	97	0	0		3		0
109		33	7		-	2	94	1	0		5		0
108		32	7		-	3	91	1	0		8		0
107		32	8		-	2	86	1	1		12		0
106		31	8		-	3	80	2	1		17		0
105		31	9		-	2	72	3	2		23		0
104		30	9		-	3	63	4	2		30		1
103		29	9		-	4	53	5	3	0	37		2
102		29	10		-	3	43	6	4	0	44		3
101		28	10		-	4	32	6	5	0	51	0	6		0
100		28	11		-	3	23	6	6	0	56	0	9
		27	10		-	5	22	6	6	0	56	0	9		0
99		27	11		-	4	15	6	6	0	60	0	14		0
98		27	12		-	3	9	5	6	0	61	0	20		0
97		26	12		-	4	5	4	5	0	60	0	26		0
96		26	13		-	3	2	3	4	0	56	0	34		0		0
95		25	13		-	4	1	2	3	0	51	0	42		1		0
94		25	14		-	3	0	1	2	0	44	0	51		1		0
93		24	14		-	4	0	0	1	0	36	0	58		3		0
92		24	15		-	3	0	0	1	0	29	0	64		6		0
91		23	15		-	4	0	0	0	0	21	1	68		10		0
90		23	16		-	3		0	0	0	15	1	68		16		1
89		22	16		-	4		0	0	0	10	1	65	0	23		1
88		22	17		-	3			0	0	6	1	58		32		3		0
87		21	17		-	4			0	0	3	1	51	0	40		5		0
86		21	18		-	3				0	2	0	42	0	46		10		0
85		20	18		-	4					1	0	32	0	51		15		0
84		20	19		-	3					0	0	23	0	54		22		0
83		19	19		-	4					0	0	15	0	54		29		1
82		19	20		-	3						0	10	0	49		39		1
81		18	20		-	4							7	0	43	0	47		2
80		18	21		-	3							3	1	36		55		5
79		17	21		-	4							2	0	27		63		8
78		17	22		-	3							1	1	16	0	68		14
77		16	22		-	4									17	1	64		18
76		16	23		-	3							2		5		67	3	23
75		15	23		-	4									13		60	2	26
74		15	24		-	3											59		41
73		14	24		-	4											71		29
72		13	24		-	5													100
71		12	24		-	6											100
41		0	42		-	0																			1	99

Total:							34	3	3	0	39	0	19	0	2	0	0	0	0						0	0