Toronto Tanks Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Lost to Edmonton 3-5, playoff odds down 1.2 to 97.5%

24 points 12 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.4		-6.9		+0.1		-0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+0.1
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-1.4
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-1.2				-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-0.8
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)			*-0.3

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	+0.6+0.5+0.6*-0.0-0.1-0.6		+7.1+5.4+6.0-1.8-2.0-7.7		-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0+0.1		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Philadelphia vs Denver			-1.0-1.0-0.9+0.1+0.2+1.2
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.8-0.8-0.6+0.3+0.1+0.8				-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Calgary vs Ontario			*-0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7-0.7+0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

61	-68						In		100.0	%	100								No		4,137	*
60		18	4		-	0	In		99.7		100	0							No		4,793	*
59		17	4		-	1	In		99.3		100	0							No		8,266	*
58		16	4		-	2	In		98.7		100	0							No		16,128	*
57		16	5		-	1	100.0	%	97.2		99	1	0		0				No		25,368	*
56		15	5		-	2	100.0		94.7		98	2	0		0				No		42,924	*
55		15	6		-	1	100.0		90.1		96	4	0		0				No		59,599	*
54		14	6		-	2	99.9		83.0		92	8	0		0				No		46,597
		15	7		-	0	99.9		83.2		92	7	0		0				No		42,602	*
53		14	7		-	1	99.9		72.9		87	12	0		0				No		78,748	*
		13	6		-	3	99.8		72.5		85	14	1	0	0	0			No		32,305
52		13	7		-	2	99.8		60.0		78	20	1	0	0				No		78,870
		14	8		-	0	99.8		60.1		79	19	1	0	0				No		70,269	*
51		13	8		-	1	99.7		45.4		70	27	3	0	0				No		111,423
		12	7		-	3	99.6		44.0		65	31	4	0	0				No		57,028	*
50		12	8		-	2	99.5		29.1		54	38	7	0	1	0			No		131,961	*
		13	9		-	0	99.5		31.1		59	35	5	0	0				No		71,916	*
49		12	9		-	1	99.3		17.4		43	44	12	1	1	0			No		136,896
		11	8		-	3	99.1		16.0		38	46	15	1	1	0			No		73,050	*
48		11	9		-	2	98.9		7.7		28	47	22	2	1	0			No		123,332
		12	10		-	0	99.0		8.6		32	47	18	1	1	0			No		77,814
		10	8		-	4	98.7		7.0		23	47	26	3	1	0			No		28,995	*
47		11	10		-	1	98.6		3.0		18	45	31	4	1	0			No		139,943
		10	9		-	3	98.3		2.7		14	43	35	6	2	0			No		76,292	*
46		10	10		-	2	97.8		0.8		9	37	42	10	2	0			No		116,139
		11	11		-	0	97.9		0.9		10	38	41	9	2	0			No		99,804	*
45		10	11		-	1	97.2		0.1		4	28	48	17	3	0			No		118,735
		9	10		-	3	96.9		0.1		3	23	49	22	3	0	0		No		64,756	*
44		9	11		-	2	96.2		0.0		1	16	48	30	4	0	0		No		89,304
		10	12		-	0	96.2		0.0		2	18	49	28	4	0			No		77,265	*
43		9	12		-	1	95.2		0.0		1	10	45	40	5	0	0		No		84,134
		8	11		-	3	94.5		No		0	7	41	46	5	0	0		No		44,887	*
42		8	12		-	2	93.4		No		0	4	34	55	6	1	0		No		56,665
		9	13		-	0	93.4		No		0	5	36	53	6	1	0		No		49,037	*
41		8	13		-	1	91.4		No		0	2	25	64	7	1	0	0	No		75,331	*
40		7	13		-	2	89.7		No		0	1	17	72	8	2	0	0	No		56,612	*
39		7	14		-	1	87.5		No			0	11	76	9	3	0	0	0.0	%	35,679	*
38		6	14		-	2	85.8		No			0	8	78	8	5	1	0	0.0		24,082	*
37		6	15		-	1	83.8		No			0	5	78	8	7	2	0	0.3		13,851	*
36		5	15		-	2	83.3		No			0	4	80	6	8	3	0	2.1		8,401	*
35		5	16		-	1	82.9		No				3	80	4	8	5	1	9.6		4,191	*
34		4	16		-	2	83.1		No				2	81	2	7	6	2	27.8		2,397	*
33		4	17		-	1	84.9		No				1	84	1	4	8	2	51.6		1,021	*
32		4	18		-	0	81.5		No				1	81	0	4	9	6	76.0		492	*
31		3	18		-	1	82.0		No				1	81		2	9	8	91.3		183	*
30		3	19		-	0	81.9		No				1	81			7	11	91.6		83	*
29		2	19		-	1	95.0		No					95				5	Yes		20	*
28		2	20		-	0	44.4		No					44			11	44	Yes		9	*
26	-27						In		No					100					Yes		4	*
24		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0			2	98	Yes		398

Total:							97.5	%	23.2	%	35	25	22	15	2	0	0	0	0.1	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.4
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

62	-68						100
61		18	3		-	1	100	0
60		18	4		-	0	100	0
59		17	4		-	1	99	1
58		16	4		-	2	99	1	0
57		16	5		-	1	97	3	0
56		15	5		-	2	95	5	0
55		15	6		-	1	90	10	0	0
54		14	6		-	2	83	16	1	0
53		14	7		-	1	73	25	2	0
		13	6		-	3	72	25	2	0
52		13	7		-	2	60	34	6	0	0
		14	8		-	0	60	34	5	0	0
51		13	8		-	1	45	42	11	1	0	0
		12	7		-	3	44	42	12	1	0
50		12	8		-	2	29	45	21	4	0	0
		13	9		-	0	30	45	21	4	0	0
49		12	9		-	1	17	41	31	9	1	0
		11	8		-	3	16	41	32	10	1	0
48		11	9		-	2	8	31	39	19	4	0	0
		12	10		-	0	8	31	38	19	4	0	0
47		11	10		-	1	3	19	38	29	10	1	0
		10	9		-	3	3	17	37	31	11	1	0
46		10	10		-	2	1	8	28	37	21	4	0	0
		11	11		-	0	1	9	28	37	20	4	0	0
45		10	11		-	1	0	3	16	35	32	12	1	0
		9	10		-	3	0	2	15	34	34	13	2	0
44		9	11		-	2	0	1	6	24	39	24	6	0	0
		10	12		-	0	0	1	7	25	38	24	5	0	0
43		9	12		-	1	0	0	2	13	33	36	14	2	0	0	0
		8	11		-	3		0	1	11	32	37	16	3	0	0
42		8	12		-	2		0	0	4	20	39	28	8	1	0
		9	13		-	0		0	0	4	21	39	27	8	1	0
41		8	13		-	1			0	1	8	30	38	19	4	0	0
40		7	13		-	2			0	0	2	16	35	32	12	2	0	0
39		7	14		-	1				0	0	6	23	37	25	8	1	0	0
38		6	14		-	2					0	1	10	28	35	20	5	0	0
37		6	15		-	1						0	3	14	32	32	15	3	0	0
36		5	15		-	2							0	5	19	33	28	12	2	0
35		5	16		-	1							0	1	7	23	35	25	8	1	0
34		4	16		-	2								0	2	11	26	33	22	6	1	0
33		4	17		-	1									1	2	13	33	33	16	3	0
32		4	18		-	0										0	4	20	34	35	7	1
31		3	18		-	1											1	8	28	36	25	3
30		3	19		-	0												8	12	37	40	2
29		2	19		-	1														60	35	5
28		2	20		-	0														33	56	11
27		1	20		-	1															33	67
26		1	21		-	0																100
24		0	22		-	0														0	25	75

Total:							23	19	16	13	11	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0