Phoenix White Wolves Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat Pittsburgh 4-1, playoff odds up 3 to 13.9%

9 points 3 8-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+2.6		-8.1		+0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	-0.6		+0.2
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.4		-1.0		+0.1
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.4		*-0.2
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5			+0.6
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-1.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-1.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	+2.5+2.3+2.1-0.7-0.8-2.8		-8.9-7.5-7.4+1.5+1.8+9.9		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
New York vs Anaheim	+0.6-0.3-0.1-0.7-0.6-0.4		+0.4+1.2+1.2+0.7*+0.2-0.7		-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0		+0.7+1.2+1.4+0.3+0.4-1.0
Ottawa vs Halifax			-1.2-0.1-0.1+1.2+1.0+1.1
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.5-0.1-0.3*+0.5+0.6+0.4
Vancouver vs Edmonton			*+0.0+0.7+0.8+0.6+0.7-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Phoenix finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

53		22	0		-	0	In		74.7	%	91	9							No		399
52		21	0		-	1	In		75.0		100								No		4
51		21	1		-	0	92.9	%	64.3		86	7			7				No		14	*
50		20	1		-	1	97.7		18.6		63	30	5		2				No		43	*
49		20	2		-	0	98.7		14.0		53	39	6		1				No		157	*
48		19	2		-	1	97.4		9.1		39	46	12		3				No		351	*
47		19	3		-	0	94.6		2.3		28	50	17	0	5				No		1,020	*
46		18	3		-	1	93.3		0.8		17	48	27	1	7	0			No		2,114	*
45		18	4		-	0	90.0		0.1		10	42	37	1	10	0			No		4,671	*
44		17	4		-	1	85.9		0.0		5	33	44	4	14	0			No		8,189	*
43		16	4		-	2	80.2		No		2	23	49	6	19	1	0		No		16,310	*
42		16	5		-	1	71.3		No		1	13	46	11	27	1	0		No		25,146	*
41		15	5		-	2	63.6		No		0	7	41	15	33	3	0		No		42,964	*
40		15	6		-	1	52.8		No		0	3	31	18	41	6	0		No		59,162	*
39		14	6		-	2	42.6		No		0	1	22	20	47	10	0		0.0	%	88,625	*
38		14	7		-	1	31.4		No		0	0	12	19	51	17	1	0	0.1		111,347	*
37		13	7		-	2	23.2		No		0	0	6	17	50	24	3	0	0.4		149,366	*
36		13	8		-	1	16.2		No			0	3	13	46	33	6	0	2.2		111,523
		12	7		-	3	14.2		No			0	2	12	43	35	7	0	2.7		57,255	*
35		12	8		-	2	10.2		No				1	9	35	42	12	0	9.5		133,720	*
		13	9		-	0	12.5		No			0	1	11	40	39	9	0	8.2		70,421
34		12	9		-	1	7.9		No			0	0	8	28	45	18	1	23.1		136,972
		11	8		-	3	7.3		No				0	7	25	46	21	1	26.0		72,802	*
33		11	9		-	2	6.2		No				0	6	17	45	29	2	46.9		123,248
		12	10		-	0	6.5		No				0	6	20	46	27	2	45.2		106,407	*
32		11	10		-	1	5.5		No				0	5	11	42	38	4	67.7		139,838
		10	9		-	3	5.6		No				0	6	9	39	41	5	70.6		76,441	*
31		10	10		-	2	5.4		No				0	5	5	32	48	9	85.8		115,905
		11	11		-	0	5.4		No				0	5	6	35	46	8	85.0		99,566	*
30		10	11		-	1	5.2		No				0	5	3	25	53	14	94.3		119,200
		9	10		-	3	5.3		No				0	5	2	22	54	17	95.0		65,079	*
29		9	11		-	2	5.3		No				0	5	1	15	54	25	98.4		89,153
		10	12		-	0	5.3		No				0	5	1	18	54	22	98.3		76,573	*
28		9	12		-	1	5.2		No				0	5	0	9	51	34	99.6		129,656	*
27		8	12		-	2	5.1		No				0	5	0	5	44	45	99.9		107,482	*
26		8	13		-	1	5.2		No				0	5	0	2	36	57	100.0		75,146	*
25		7	13		-	2	5.2		No				0	5	0	1	27	66	100.0		56,025	*
24		7	14		-	1	5.3		No					5		0	19	75	Yes		35,419	*
23		6	14		-	2	5.3		No					5		0	13	82	Yes		24,169	*
22		6	15		-	1	5.1		No					5		0	8	87	Yes		13,518	*
21		5	15		-	2	5.4		No					5		0	5	90	Yes		8,529	*
20		5	16		-	1	4.9		No					5			3	92	Yes		4,258	*
19		4	16		-	2	5.1		No					5		0	1	93	Yes		2,369	*
18		4	17		-	1	4.5		No					5			0	95	Yes		996	*
17		4	18		-	0	5.2		No					5			0	95	Yes		517	*
16		3	18		-	1	7.0		No					7				93	Yes		157	*
15		3	19		-	0	6.8		No					7				93	Yes		73	*
14		2	19		-	1	3.4		No					3				97	Yes		29	*
12	-13						Out		No									100	Yes		10	*
9		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0				100	Yes		398

Total:							13.9	%	0.0	%	0	1	4	9	20	26	27	14	51.0	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	-0.5
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.1
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.1
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.0
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.5-0.5-0.5+0.1+0.1+0.6
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
New York vs Anaheim	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

53		22	0		-	0	75	23	3
52		21	0		-	1	75	25
51		21	1		-	0	64	29		7
50		20	1		-	1	19	60	16	5
49		20	2		-	0	14	36	41	8
48		19	2		-	1	9	27	36	24	3	1
47		19	3		-	0	2	14	35	35	13	1
46		18	3		-	1	1	7	24	36	25	6	1
45		18	4		-	0	0	2	12	31	35	17	3	0
44		17	4		-	1	0	0	4	18	35	30	10	1	0
43		16	4		-	2		0	1	7	26	38	23	5	0
42		16	5		-	1			0	2	13	33	35	15	2	0	0
41		15	5		-	2			0	0	4	21	39	27	8	1	0
40		15	6		-	1				0	1	8	29	38	20	4	0	0
39		14	6		-	2				0	0	2	16	35	32	12	2	0	0
38		14	7		-	1					0	0	6	24	37	25	7	1	0	0
		13	6		-	3					0	0	5	21	37	28	8	1	0
37		13	7		-	2						0	1	10	29	36	19	5	0	0
		14	8		-	0					0	0	2	11	30	35	17	4	0	0
36		13	8		-	1						0	0	3	16	34	31	13	2	0
		12	7		-	3						0	0	3	15	33	32	14	2	0	0
35		12	8		-	2							0	1	6	22	36	26	8	1	0
		13	9		-	0							0	1	6	23	36	25	8	1	0
34		12	9		-	1							0	0	2	11	30	35	18	4	0	0
		11	8		-	3							0	0	1	9	28	36	20	5	0	0
33		11	9		-	2								0	0	3	16	34	32	13	2	0
		12	10		-	0								0	0	3	17	34	31	12	2	0
32		11	10		-	1								0	0	1	7	25	37	24	6	0
		10	9		-	3									0	1	6	23	37	26	7	0
31		10	10		-	2									0	0	2	12	32	36	15	2
		11	11		-	0									0	0	2	13	33	36	15	1
30		10	11		-	1									0	0	0	5	22	40	27	5
		9	10		-	3										0	0	5	21	40	29	5
29		9	11		-	2										0	0	1	12	35	40	12
		10	12		-	0										0	0	2	12	35	39	11
28		9	12		-	1											0	0	5	26	47	21
		8	11		-	3											0	0	5	25	47	23
27		8	12		-	2												0	2	16	48	35
		9	13		-	0												0	2	16	47	34
26		8	13		-	1												0	1	8	42	49
25		7	13		-	2												0	0	4	34	62
24		7	14		-	1													0	2	24	74
23		6	14		-	2														1	16	83
22		6	15		-	1														0	10	90
21		5	15		-	2														0	6	94
20		5	16		-	1															4	96
19		4	16		-	2															2	98
18		4	17		-	1															1	99
17		4	18		-	0															0	100
9	-16																					100

Total:							0	0	0	0	1	1	3	5	7	9	11	13	14	14	14	10