Ottawa Oblivion Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat Philadelphia 3-2 (ot), playoff odds up 3.8 to 92.5%

22 points 11 3-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+2.0		+2.6		-0.4		+0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+0.8
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.4		+1.0		+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.5		-0.1
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.4		-0.0		-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-0.2		-0.1

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	+1.5+1.6+1.5*-0.2-0.4-1.8		+3.2+3.3+2.9-0.5-0.5-3.7		-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.3		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.2-0.2-0.1*-0.1-0.4-0.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.7-0.6-0.7*-0.1+0.3+0.7
Toronto vs Los Angeles			+0.1-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6+0.1				-0.1-0.1-0.1*+0.0+0.0+0.1
Calgary vs Ontario			-0.1-0.5-0.5-0.5*-0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

60	-66						In		100.0	%	100								No		2,015	*
59		18	3		-	1	In		99.3		100	0							No		2,054	*
58		18	4		-	0	In		98.6		99	1							No		4,857	*
57		17	4		-	1	In		97.4		99	1							No		8,234	*
56		16	4		-	2	100.0	%	94.7		98	2			0				No		16,379	*
55		16	5		-	1	99.9		89.1		95	5	0		0				No		25,085	*
54		15	5		-	2	99.9		81.3		91	9	0		0				No		42,882	*
53		15	6		-	1	99.8		70.3		85	15	1	0	0				No		59,306	*
52		14	6		-	2	99.6		55.3		74	23	2	0	0				No		46,227
		15	7		-	0	99.7		57.5		77	21	1	0	0				No		42,756	*
51		14	7		-	1	99.4		41.6		66	30	4	0	1				No		74,939
		13	6		-	3	99.2		38.6		59	34	5	0	1				No		35,741	*
50		13	7		-	2	99.1		25.1		49	41	9	0	1	0			No		79,023
		14	8		-	0	99.1		26.4		52	39	8	0	1				No		70,673	*
49		13	8		-	1	98.6		14.3		38	45	14	1	1	0			No		111,776
		12	7		-	3	98.2		12.7		32	46	19	2	2	0			No		57,276	*
48		12	8		-	2	97.9		6.0		23	46	26	3	2	0			No		108,702
		13	9		-	0	98.0		6.3		25	46	24	3	2	0			No		94,695	*
47		12	9		-	1	97.4		2.2		15	42	34	6	3	0			No		137,312
		11	8		-	3	96.7		1.7		10	38	39	9	3	0			No		73,358	*
46		11	9		-	2	96.1		0.5		6	32	44	14	4	0			No		123,140
		12	10		-	0	96.4		0.7		9	36	41	11	4	0			No		77,532
		10	8		-	4	95.1		0.3		4	26	46	19	5	0			No		29,289	*
45		11	10		-	1	94.9		0.1		3	23	47	22	5	0			No		148,306	*
		10	9		-	3	94.2		0.1		2	18	47	27	6	0	0		No		67,943
44		10	10		-	2	92.6		0.0		1	11	43	37	7	0			No		142,396	*
		11	11		-	0	93.3		0.0		1	16	46	31	6	0	0		No		72,091
43		10	11		-	1	90.9		No		0	7	38	45	9	0	0		No		118,423
		9	10		-	3	89.7		0.0		0	5	33	52	10	1	0		No		65,283	*
42		9	11		-	2	87.4		No		0	2	27	58	11	1	0	0	No		89,524
		10	12		-	0	87.8		No		0	3	28	56	11	1	0		No		77,236	*
41		9	12		-	1	84.9		No		0	1	20	64	13	2	0	0	No		84,150
		8	11		-	3	83.0		No			1	16	67	14	3	0		No		44,989	*
40		8	12		-	2	80.2		No			0	11	69	16	4	0	0	No		68,522	*
		9	13		-	0	81.3		No			0	13	67	15	3	0		No		37,668	*
39		8	13		-	1	76.4		No			0	7	69	17	6	0	0	No		75,065	*
38		7	13		-	2	73.2		No			0	4	69	16	9	1	0	0.0	%	56,555	*
37		7	14		-	1	70.3		No			0	3	67	15	12	3	0	0.2		35,645	*
36		6	14		-	2	68.3		No			0	2	66	12	15	5	0	1.5		24,331	*
35		6	15		-	1	67.0		No				1	66	7	16	9	1	6.3		13,961	*
34		5	15		-	2	66.6		No				1	66	5	14	11	3	19.2		8,514	*
33		5	16		-	1	66.7		No				1	66	3	11	15	4	42.5		4,229	*
32		4	16		-	2	68.7		No				0	68	1	9	15	7	65.3		2,424	*
31		4	17		-	1	67.6		No				0	67	0	5	16	12	85.5		1,009	*
30		3	17		-	2	65.6		No				0	65	1	2	15	17	96.1		517	*
29		3	18		-	1	70.6		No					71			10	20	99.4		177	*
28		3	19		-	0	73.2		No					73		1	3	23	Yes		97	*
27		2	19		-	1	83.3		No					83			4	13	Yes		24	*
26		1	19		-	2	87.5		No					88				13	Yes		8	*
22		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0			2	98	Yes		398

Total:							92.5	%	12.0	%	20	22	24	26	6	1	0	0	0.3	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	-0.4
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.0
Denver 0 Florida 1	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.4-0.4-0.4+0.0+0.0+0.5
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.1+0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

61	-66						100
60		19	3		-	0	100	0
59		18	3		-	1	99	1
58		18	4		-	0	99	1
57		17	4		-	1	97	3	0
56		16	4		-	2	95	5	0
55		16	5		-	1	89	11	0
54		15	5		-	2	81	18	1	0
53		15	6		-	1	70	27	3	0	0
52		14	6		-	2	55	37	7	1	0
		15	7		-	0	57	35	7	0	0
51		14	7		-	1	42	43	14	2	0	0
		13	6		-	3	39	44	15	2	0
50		13	7		-	2	25	45	25	5	0	0
		14	8		-	0	28	45	23	4	0
49		13	8		-	1	14	39	34	12	1	0	0
		12	7		-	3	13	37	35	13	2	0
48		12	8		-	2	6	26	39	23	5	0	0
		13	9		-	0	7	28	39	21	5	0
47		12	9		-	1	2	15	36	33	12	2	0
		11	8		-	3	2	14	34	34	14	2	0
46		11	9		-	2	0	6	24	38	25	6	0	0
		12	10		-	0	1	7	25	38	24	6	0	0
45		11	10		-	1	0	2	13	33	36	14	2	0
		10	9		-	3	0	2	11	32	37	16	2	0	0
44		10	10		-	2	0	0	5	21	39	28	6	0	0
		11	11		-	0	0	0	5	22	39	27	6	0	0
43		10	11		-	1		0	1	10	32	39	15	2	0	0
		9	10		-	3	0	0	1	9	31	40	16	2	0	0
42		9	11		-	2		0	0	3	19	41	28	7	1	0
		10	12		-	0		0	0	3	20	41	28	7	1	0
41		9	12		-	1			0	1	8	32	38	17	3	0	0
		8	11		-	3			0	1	7	31	39	18	4	0	0
40		8	12		-	2				0	2	18	38	30	10	1	0
		9	13		-	0			0	0	2	19	38	30	10	1	0	0
39		8	13		-	1				0	0	7	27	37	22	6	1	0
38		7	13		-	2				0	0	2	14	32	33	15	3	0	0
37		7	14		-	1					0	0	5	19	35	28	11	2	0	0
36		6	14		-	2						0	1	8	24	34	24	8	1	0
35		6	15		-	1						0	0	2	11	27	33	20	6	1	0
34		5	15		-	2							0	0	4	14	31	31	16	3	0
33		5	16		-	1								0	1	5	18	33	29	12	2	0
32		4	16		-	2									0	1	7	26	35	24	6	0
31		4	17		-	1										0	2	12	33	33	17	1
30		3	17		-	2											0	4	17	42	30	7
29		3	18		-	1												1	8	35	45	11
28		3	19		-	0													4	23	59	14
27		2	19		-	1													4	21	54	21
26		1	19		-	2															88	13
22		0	22		-	0															16	84

Total:							12	13	14	15	14	12	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0