Los Angeles Storm Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat New York 2-0, playoff odds up 0.1 to 99.9%

24 points 12 2-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.1		+4.1		-0.2		+0.1
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5			+1.7
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.7
Halifax 2 Ontario 6			-0.5		-0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)			*-0.3				*+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1		-7.3-2.7-2.9+4.3+4.7+6.9		+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.9-1.0-0.9+0.2-0.1+1.0				-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.8-0.7-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.9
Calgary vs Ontario			-0.4-0.8-0.9*+0.0-0.3+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Los Angeles finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

61	-68						In		100.0	%	100								No		4,038	*
60		18	4		-	0	In		99.6		100	0							No		4,844	*
59		17	4		-	1	In		99.3		100	0							No		8,364	*
58		16	4		-	2	In		98.2		100	0							No		16,092	*
57		16	5		-	1	In		96.5		99	1							No		25,023	*
56		15	5		-	2	100.0	%	92.8		99	1			0				No		42,558	*
55		15	6		-	1	In		87.7		98	2							No		59,042	*
54		14	6		-	2	In		79.2		96	4							No		46,541
		15	7		-	0	In		79.8		96	4							No		42,722	*
53		14	7		-	1	100.0		68.8		93	7	0		0				No		75,201
		13	6		-	3	In		67.5		93	7							No		36,262	*
52		13	7		-	2	100.0		54.5		89	11	0		0				No		78,395
		14	8		-	0	In		55.0		89	11	0						No		70,116	*
51		13	8		-	1	100.0		40.2		84	16	0		0				No		112,065
		12	7		-	3	100.0		38.1		83	17	0		0				No		57,512	*
50		12	8		-	2	100.0		24.9		77	23	0		0				No		109,017
		13	9		-	0	100.0		25.6		77	23	0		0				No		95,206	*
49		12	9		-	1	100.0		14.1		69	31	0	0	0				No		137,162
		11	8		-	3	100.0		12.6		67	33	0	0	0				No		74,171	*
48		11	9		-	2	100.0		5.9		58	41	1	0	0				No		123,629
		12	10		-	0	100.0		6.6		60	40	1	0	0				No		77,552
		10	8		-	4	100.0		5.2		56	43	1	0	0				No		28,874	*
47		11	10		-	1	100.0		2.2		48	50	2	0	0				No		139,861
		10	9		-	3	100.0		1.8		46	51	3	0	0				No		76,345	*
46		10	10		-	2	99.9		0.5		36	59	5	0	0				No		115,315
		11	11		-	0	100.0		0.7		38	57	4	0	0				No		72,261
		9	9		-	4	99.9		0.4		34	60	6	0	0				No		27,392	*
45		10	11		-	1	99.9		0.1		27	64	9	0	0				No		119,093
		9	10		-	3	99.9		0.1		25	64	11	0	0				No		64,623	*
44		9	11		-	2	99.9		0.0		17	66	17	1	0	0			No		89,102
		10	12		-	0	99.9		0.0		18	66	16	1	0				No		76,865	*
43		9	12		-	1	99.8		0.0		10	62	25	2	0	0			No		84,444
		8	11		-	3	99.8		No		9	61	27	2	0	0			No		44,596	*
42		8	12		-	2	99.7		No		5	53	37	5	0	0			No		56,721
		9	13		-	0	99.6		No		6	55	35	4	0	0			No		49,848	*
41		8	13		-	1	99.5		No		2	42	46	9	0	0			No		75,172	*
40		7	13		-	2	99.3		No		1	29	53	16	1	0			No		55,791	*
39		7	14		-	1	99.0		No		0	18	56	25	1	0	0		No		35,579	*
38		6	14		-	2	98.6		No		0	9	53	37	1	0	0		0.0	%	24,581	*
37		6	15		-	1	98.4		No		0	4	45	50	1	0	0		0.3		13,604	*
36		5	15		-	2	98.3		No			2	37	60	1	0	0		1.5		8,485	*
35		5	16		-	1	98.0		No			1	29	68	1	1	0		6.7		4,185	*
34		4	16		-	2	97.9		No			0	21	76	1	1	0		21.8		2,337	*
33		4	17		-	1	97.5		No			0	16	82	1	1	1		45.1		960	*
32		3	17		-	2	97.6		No				12	86	0	1	1		70.0		490	*
31		3	18		-	1	98.0		No				7	91		2		1	87.8		196	*
30		3	19		-	0	98.6		No				6	93			1		93.1		72	*
29		2	19		-	1	95.2		No				5	90			5		Yes		21	*
26	-28						In		No					100					Yes		13	*
24		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0			16	84	Yes		398

Total:							99.9	%	21.2	%	52	36	10	2	0	0	0	0	0.1	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.4
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+0.0
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.0
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto vs Los Angeles	+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.5
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

62	-68						100
61		18	3		-	1	100	0
60		18	4		-	0	100	0
59		17	4		-	1	99	1
58		16	4		-	2	98	2	0
57		16	5		-	1	96	4	0
56		15	5		-	2	93	7	0
55		15	6		-	1	88	12	0	0
54		14	6		-	2	79	20	1	0
		15	7		-	0	80	19	1	0	0
53		14	7		-	1	69	28	3	0
		13	6		-	3	68	29	3	0
52		13	7		-	2	54	37	8	0	0
		14	8		-	0	55	37	7	0	0
51		13	8		-	1	40	44	14	2	0	0
		12	7		-	3	38	44	15	2	0
50		12	8		-	2	25	45	25	5	0	0
		13	9		-	0	26	45	24	5	0	0
49		12	9		-	1	14	39	34	11	1	0
		11	8		-	3	13	38	35	12	2	0	0
48		11	9		-	2	6	27	39	22	5	0	0
		12	10		-	0	6	28	39	22	5	0	0
47		11	10		-	1	2	16	36	32	12	1	0
		10	9		-	3	2	15	35	34	13	2	0	0
46		10	10		-	2	1	7	25	38	24	6	0	0
		11	11		-	0	1	7	25	38	23	5	0	0
45		10	11		-	1	0	2	14	34	34	13	2	0
		9	10		-	3	0	2	12	33	35	15	2	0
44		9	11		-	2	0	0	5	22	39	27	7	1	0
		10	12		-	0	0	0	5	23	39	26	6	1	0
43		9	12		-	1	0	0	2	11	33	36	16	3	0	0
		8	11		-	3		0	1	9	31	38	17	3	0	0
42		8	12		-	2		0	0	3	19	39	29	9	1	0	0
		9	13		-	0		0	0	4	20	39	29	8	1	0
41		8	13		-	1			0	1	8	29	38	19	4	0	0
40		7	13		-	2				0	2	16	36	32	12	2	0	0
39		7	14		-	1				0	0	6	23	37	25	7	1	0
38		6	14		-	2					0	2	11	29	36	18	4	0	0
37		6	15		-	1						0	3	15	34	31	13	3	0
36		5	15		-	2						0	1	6	21	36	26	10	1	0
35		5	16		-	1								1	9	27	34	22	6	1	0
34		4	16		-	2							0	0	2	12	30	34	18	4	0
33		4	17		-	1									0	4	18	32	31	13	2	0
32		3	17		-	2										1	7	22	37	25	7	1
31		3	18		-	1											1	11	27	34	21	6
30		3	19		-	0											3	4	17	38	35	4
29		2	19		-	1													10	33	52	5
28		2	20		-	0														17	33	50
26		1	21		-	0																100
24		0	22		-	0														1	14	85

Total:							21	19	16	14	11	8	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0